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83.4 /100

CommVault Systems Inc (CVLT)

TECHNOLOGY · 72 verified grades · SandbagsBIASMedian signed deviation across numeric graded claims. Sandbags: outcomes land favorable to guidance. Overpromises: the opposite. Needs at least 6 numeric claims.

Verify independently: SEC filings ↗

What management is on the hook for (239)

hedged · expects · high conviction
2026 Q3 (19)19 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
In fact, at our Shift event on the 12th of November, we're going to unveil probably the most significant set of capabilities on our platforms ever.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · due Nov 12, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We believe the momentum we're seeing across our identity and data security focused offerings will continue in the second half of the year
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · due Jan 31, 2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Q3 non-GAAP EBIT margins of approximately 18% to 19%, which reflects continued strong growth from our SaaS platform and ongoing shift in term software duration.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Jul 28, 2026 · for Q3 FY26
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At these revenue levels, we expect Q3 consolidated gross margins to be in the range of 80% to 81%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jul 28, 2026 · for Q3 FY26
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect total revenue to be in the range of $298 million to $300 million with growth of 14% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Jul 28, 2026 · for Q3 FY26
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
For fiscal Q3 '26, we expect subscription revenue which includes both the software portion of term-based licenses and SaaS to be in the range of $195 million to $197 million.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · for Q3 FY26
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We indicated that from a modeling perspective, that share count should remain approximately flat at around 45 million shares.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We have not provided a specific guide, but we expect to be opportunistic and active.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · due Jan 31, 2027
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As you think about the split, the best way to think about it is approximately 60% of our net new ARR will be SaaS.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · due Jan 31, 2027
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Our guidance for the back half of the year implies a $45 million of net new ARR on a constant currency basis, which is above the $40 million that I mentioned at the start of the year.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · for H2 FY26
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
To summarize, our first half results are evidence of strong market demand that we believe will continue throughout the year.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We are raising our full year free cash flow outlook to a range of $225 million to $230 million.
Test pending
fcf · made Jul 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We now expect non-GAAP EBIT margins of approximately 18.5% to 19.5%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Jul 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We now expect gross margins to be 80.5% to 81.5%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jul 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We reiterate total revenue of $1.161 billion to $1.165 billion, an increase of 17% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Jul 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We continue to expect subscription revenue to be in the range of $753 million to $757 million, growing 28% at the midpoint.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
This will be driven by subscription ARR, which we now expect to increase by 24% to 25% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We now expect constant currency fiscal '26 total ARR growth of 18% to 19% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect this rapid pace of growth to continue fueled by the fact that customers are increasingly storing AI data in the cloud.
Test pending
made Jul 28, 2026 · due Jan 28, 2027
2026 Q2 (10)10 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Overall, we expect to see similar seasonality for the first half of the year because we do know that the Fed is stronger in the first half of the year.
Test pending
made Apr 28, 2026 · for H1 FY26
AWAITS REPORTVERDICTThe period has ended; the company has not reported it yet.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
For fiscal Q2 '26, we expect subscription revenue, which includes both the software portion of term-based licenses and SaaS, to be in the range of $174 million to $176 million.
Test pending
made Apr 28, 2026 · due Jul 31, 2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
my updated guidance shows a rule of 38.
Test pending
made Apr 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
It's about 50 bps.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Apr 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
we believe going forward that you can see north of $20 million in the SaaS net new ARR. Then moving forward, around $40 million total net new ARR quarter-over-quarter for the remainder of the year.
Test pending
made Apr 28, 2026 · for H2 FY26
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We continue to expect full-year free cash flow of $210 million to $215 million.
Test pending
fcf · made Apr 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
we continue to expect gross margins to be 81% to 82%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Apr 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect total revenue of $1.161 billion to $1.165 billion, an increase of 17% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Apr 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
From a full year fiscal '26 revenue perspective, we expect subscription revenue to be in the range of $753 million to $757 million, growing 28% at the midpoint with strong contributions from both term software licenses and SaaS.
Test pending
made Apr 28, 2026 · for FY2026
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect the transaction to close later this quarter and to be modestly dilutive to margins for the next several quarters.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Apr 28, 2026 · for Q1 FY26
2026 Q1 (4)4 open
2025 Q4 (13)13 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
From a free cash flow perspective, we expect full year free cash flow of $170 million to $200 million.
Test pending
fcf · made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We also continue to expect non-GAAP EBIT margins to be in the range of 20% to 21%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Moving to our updated full year fiscal ’25 margin, EBIT and cash flow outlook, we continue to expect gross margins to be 81% to 82%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We now expect total revenue growth to accelerate and be in the range of $980 million to $985 million, an increase of approximately 17% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
From a full year fiscal ’25 revenue perspective, we now expect subscription revenue to be in the range of $575 million to $580 million, growing 35% at the midpoint with strong contributions from both term software licenses and SaaS.
Test pending
made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect subscription ARR to increase in the range of 28% to 30% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We now expect fiscal year ’25 total ARR growth of 19% to 20% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Our projected diluted share count for fiscal Q4 is approximately 45 million shares.
Test pending
made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Q4 non-GAAP EBIT margins to remain in the range of 20% to 21%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At these revenue levels, we expect Q4 consolidated gross margins to be in the range of 81% to 82%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect total revenue to be in the range of $250 million to $264 million, with growth of 18% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
For fiscal Q4, we expect subscription revenue, which includes both a software portion of term-based licenses and SaaS, to be in the range of $160 million to $164 million.
Test pending
made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We still plan to repurchase at least 75% of our free cash flow for the full fiscal year.
Test pending
made Oct 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
2025 Q3 (17)17 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect to see the same process go through with Clumio. And I think you'll see more of the impact in fiscal year '26.
Test pending
made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As I look to the second half of the year from a guidance perspective, most of this is organic. We could share that Clumio was accretive, but it's not material. And so, as you think about the impact in the second half of the year, it's a few million dollars per quarter.
Test pending
revenue · made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Lastly, we are currently trending ahead of the targets that we originally shared for FY '26.
Test pending
made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
From a free cash flow perspective, we expect full-year free cash flow to exceed $200 million.
Test pending
fcf · made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We also continue to expect non-GAAP EBIT margins to be in the range of 20% to 21%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We continue to expect gross margins to be approximately 81.5% to 82.5%, inclusive of the accelerating contribution of our SaaS business.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We now expect total revenue growth to accelerate and be in the range of $952 million to $957 million, an increase of approximately 14% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
From a full-year fiscal '25 revenue perspective, we now expect Subscription revenue to be in the range of $552 million to $557 million, growing 29% at the midpoint with strong contributions from both term software licenses and SaaS.
Test pending
made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Subscription ARR to increase in the range of 26% to 28% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We now expect fiscal year '25 total ARR growth of approximately 18% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Even with incremental costs of the Clumio acquisition and our customer event lending, we expect Q3 non-GAAP EBIT margins to remain in the range of 20% to 21%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Jul 29, 2025 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At these revenue levels, we expect Q3 consolidated gross margins to be in the range of 81% to 82%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jul 29, 2025 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect total revenue to be in the range of $243 million to $247 million, with growth of 13% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Jul 29, 2025 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
This represents 27% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.
Test pending
made Jul 29, 2025 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
For fiscal Q3, we expect Subscription revenue, which includes both the software portion of term-based licenses and SaaS, to be in the range of $143 million to $147 million.
Test pending
made Jul 29, 2025 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We plan to repurchase at least 75% of our free cash flow for the full fiscal year.
Test pending
made Jul 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect to release an enhanced Active Directory offering shortly.
Test pending
made Jul 29, 2025 · due Dec 31, 2024
2025 Q2 (14)14 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As a reminder, for fiscal year '25, we lowered our non-GAAP tax rate from 27% down to 24%. We believe that a 24% rate more closely aligns with our effective tax rate expectations over the next few years.
Test pending
made Apr 29, 2025 · due Apr 29, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
And lastly, we expect to continue with our existing practice of repurchasing at least 75% of our annual free cash flow.
Test pending
made Apr 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
From a free cash flow perspective, we continue to expect full year free cash flow of at least $200 million.
Test pending
fcf · made Apr 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We also continue to expect non-GAAP EBIT margins to be in the range of 20% to 21%, inclusive of certain focused investments to continue our revenue momentum.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Apr 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Moving to our updated full year fiscal '25 margin, EBIT and cash flow outlook, we continue to expect gross margins to be in the range of 81.5% to 82.5%, inclusive of the accelerating contribution of our SaaS business.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Apr 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We now expect total revenue growth to accelerate and be in the range of $915 million to $925 million, an increase of approximately 9.5% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Apr 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
From a full year fiscal '25 revenue perspective, we now expect subscription revenue to be in the range of $522 million to $527 million, growing 22% year-over-year at the midpoint, with strong contributions from both term software licenses and SaaS.
Test pending
made Apr 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect subscription ARR to increase in the range of 23% to 25% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Apr 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We now expect fiscal year '25 total ARR growth of 15% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Apr 29, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Our projected diluted share count for fiscal Q2 is approximately 45 million shares.
Test pending
made Apr 29, 2025 · due Oct 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Q2 non-GAAP EBIT margin to be in the range of 19% to 20%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Apr 29, 2025 · due Oct 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At these revenue levels, we expect Q2 consolidated gross margin to be in the range of 81% to 82%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Apr 29, 2025 · due Oct 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As a result, we expect total revenue to be $218 to $222 million, with a growth of 9% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Apr 29, 2025 · due Oct 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
For fiscal Q2, we expect subscription revenue, which includes both the software portion of term based licenses and SaaS, to be $120 to $124 million.
Test pending
made Apr 29, 2025 · due Oct 31, 2024
2025 Q1 (23)23 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
The guidance we provided reflects that our margins will remain roughly flat while we continue to see top-line acceleration.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect that customer support line to hover around roughly $300 million for the full year, meaning those tailwinds have essentially been eliminated and are expected to remain flat to slightly down.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
I would expect that perpetual business headwinds will normalize, with a run rate of about $12 million to $15 million per quarter.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
With the tailwinds we've seen starting to diminish, I think somewhere between flat and low single-digit decline is reflected in our guidance.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We will see incremental renewal tailwinds again in fiscal year '25, but to a lesser extent than we saw in fiscal year '24.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We are also lowering our non-GAAP tax rate from 27% down to 24%. We believe that a 24% tax rate is reasonable to expect over the next few years, given the current cyber market tailwinds, the predictability of our large and growing subscription revenue base, and our execution momentum in the field.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect to continue with our existing practice of repurchasing at least 75% of our annual free cash flows in fiscal year '25.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect full year free cash flows of at least $200 million.
Test pending
fcf · made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Operating margins are expected to be seasonally stronger in the second half of the fiscal year compared to the first half.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We also expect non-GAAP EBIT margins to be in the range of 20% to 21%, including Q1 event costs that did not occur in the prior year, as well as several focused investments to accelerate our revenue momentum.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
we expect gross margins to be in the range of 81.5% to 82.5%, inclusive of the accelerating contribution of our SaaS business.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect total revenue growth to accelerate and be in the range of $904 million to $914 million, increasing by 8% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
From a revenue perspective, we expect subscription revenue to be in the range of $514 million to $518 million, growing 20% year over year at the midpoint, with strong contributions from both term software licenses and SaaS.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect subscription ARR to increase in the range of 21% to 23% year over year.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect fiscal year '25 total ARR growth of 14% year over year.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Q1 non-GAAP EBIT margins to be in the range of 18% to 19%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Jan 28, 2025 · due Jun 30, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At these revenue levels, we expect Q1 consolidated gross margins to be in the range of 81% to 82%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jan 28, 2025 · due Jun 30, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As a result, we expect revenue to be $213 million to $216 million, reflecting 8% growth at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Jan 28, 2025 · due Jun 30, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
For fiscal Q1, we expect subscription revenue, which includes both the software portion of term-based licenses and SaaS, to be $116 million to $119 million.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Jun 30, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We are pleased with the acceleration in total revenue growth throughout fiscal year '24, and we expect our business momentum to continue into fiscal year '25.
Test pending
revenue · made Jan 28, 2025 · due Jan 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect customer support revenue from term-based software licenses to become the majority of our customer support revenue in fiscal year '25, driven by the attach rate on term software license growth.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect the headwinds from perpetual license sales to diminish in fiscal year '25 and beyond.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We believe fiscal year '25 will be a year for Cobalt to continue accelerating our growth.
Test pending
made Jan 28, 2025 · due Jan 31, 2026
2024 Q4 (11)11 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
Clearly our expectation that FY 2025 growth will be higher than FY 2024.
Test pending
revenue · made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We're working very clearly towards our goal of getting into that 70% plus range of gross margins.
Test pending
made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Fiscal Q4 will be modestly lower, not significantly, but still lower.
Test pending
made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Overall, I anticipate the renewal population next year will be larger than this year's, but not by the same substantial amount as we saw this year.
Test pending
made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
I think by the end of next fiscal year, the term component, like the maintenance and support piece from our term licenses, will become the majority of that customer support.
Test pending
made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
No, I would say, as I look into next fiscal year, I would say flat to slightly down is what I would expect on a full-year basis. Aaron, is what I would expect at this point.
Test pending
made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At this trajectory, we expect customer support revenue from term-based software licenses to become the majority of our customer support revenue next fiscal year.
Test pending
made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As of December 31st, we had $122 million remaining on our existing share repurchase authorization and we expect to continue with our existing practice of repurchasing at least 75% of our annual free cash flows.
Test pending
made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We continue to expect gross margins of 82% to 83% and non-GAAP EBIT margin expansion of 50 to 100 basis points year-over-year.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
For fiscal Q4, we expect subscription revenue, which includes both the software portion of term-based licenses and SaaS, to be $111 to $115 million.
Test pending
made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
At the current run rate, we believe that the headwinds to our reported total revenue growth for perpetual license sales are normalizing as we exit the current fiscal year.
Test pending
made Oct 29, 2024 · due Jan 31, 2025
2024 Q3 (16)16 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Modest. I think it will be modest.
Test pending
revenue · made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
This year, we expect that customer support revenue related to term licenses will be around 45% to 50%.
Test pending
made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Yes, it would be the high end of the range. Yes.
Test pending
made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
The trend we've observed in the first half of the fiscal year should continue similarly in the second half, possibly at a slightly reduced pace as our focus is now fully on driving the term subscription and SaaS business.
Test pending
made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
we expect to continue with our existing practice of repurchasing at least 75% of our annual free cash flows.
Test pending
made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We are also maintaining our expected full year free cash flow of $170 million.
Test pending
fcf · made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We continue to expect consolidated gross margins of 82% to 83% and non-GAAP EBIT margin expansion of 50 basis points to 100 basis points year-over-year.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As a result, we expect total revenue to be in the range of $812 million to $822 million.
Test pending
revenue · made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At these levels, subscription revenue will exceed over 50% of our total revenues.
Test pending
made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
From a revenue perspective, we now expect subscription revenue to be in the range of $408 million to $418 million growing 19% year-over-year at the midpoint.
Test pending
made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We now expect subscription ARR, which includes term-based licenses and SaaS, to increase 24% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect fiscal year 2024 total ARR growth of 14% year-over-year, which reflects a 100 basis point increase over our prior guidance.
Test pending
made Jul 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At these revenue levels, we expect Q3 consolidated gross margins to be approximately 82.5% and EBIT margins of approximately 21%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jul 30, 2024 · due Oct 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect total revenue to be $206 million to $210 million with year-over-year growth of 7% at the midpoint.
Test pending
revenue · made Jul 30, 2024 · due Oct 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
For fiscal Q3, we expect subscription revenue, which includes both the software portion of term-based licenses and SaaS, to be $106 million to $110 million.
Test pending
made Jul 30, 2024 · due Oct 31, 2023
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
In closing, we've built a durable and multifaceted revenue model that should allow us to exceed ARR, total revenue, and earnings objectives over the long term.
Test pending
made Jul 30, 2024 · for long-term
2024 Q2 (9)9 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
Yes, there are a few points I can address. First, looking at the current fiscal Q2, this quarter is typically softer, especially in Europe. However, as we look ahead to the second half of the year, we remain confident in the guidance provided for that period.
Test pending
revenue · made Apr 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
We remain confident in our full year outlook given the ongoing momentum in our SaaS business and the seasonally stronger trends we historically see in the second half of the fiscal year, including a larger term software renewal opportunity and potential for improved large-deal traction.
Test pending
made Apr 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
We are also reconfirming our existing guidance for all provided metrics for the full year fiscal '24.
Test pending
made Apr 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
I think we'll get to close to 50-50 by the end of the year or early next fiscal year, which then helps over the longer term actually to moderate that line and some of those declines will start to fade away.
Test pending
made Apr 30, 2024 · due Jul 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
I would expect that the customer support line will be down on a year-over-year basis for full year FY '24, somewhere in that mid- to high single-digit range from year-over-year, which is kind of where we're currently trending now though.
Test pending
made Apr 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Additionally, we expect stronger performance in the second half, particularly regarding large deal expectations in term license software.
Test pending
revenue · made Apr 30, 2024 · due Sep 30, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
There's obviously an opportunity for operating margin leverage and expansion, especially as the top line accelerates, which we'd expect some of that to happen, as I mentioned, more in the back half.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Apr 30, 2024 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
we'd expect probably about 60% in the second half versus relatively maybe 40% roughly in the first half.
Test pending
made Apr 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect to continue with our existing practice of repurchasing at least 75% of our annual free cash flows.
Test pending
made Apr 30, 2024 · due Dec 31, 2024
2024 Q1 (11)11 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Therefore, you can expect to see continued improvements in Metallic specifically over the next couple of years.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jan 30, 2024 · due Jan 30, 2026
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect this to improve in fiscal 2024 compared to fiscal 2023, providing us with favorable conditions and predictability in our model.
Test pending
made Jan 30, 2024 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
The customer support line, which covers our support for both subscription and perpetual, will also show similar trends in FY 2024 as it did in FY 2023.
Test pending
made Jan 30, 2024 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
However, you will see continued downward movement in that revenue item in FY 2024, likely at similar levels to FY 2023.
Test pending
revenue · made Jan 30, 2024 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We also expect consolidated gross margins of 82% to 83%, non-GAAP EBIT margin expansion of 50 basis points to 100 basis points year-over-year, and free cash flow of $170 million.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jan 30, 2024 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Our projected diluted share count for Q1 is 45 million shares.
Test pending
made Jan 30, 2024 · due Apr 30, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect total revenue of $195 million to $199 million.
Test pending
revenue · made Jan 30, 2024 · due Apr 30, 2024
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
We think we can continue to grow and we're confident in our ability to keep delivering that mid-teens double-digit ARR growth and getting to that mid 20% EBITDA margin should also be within our size as we kind of scale the business year-over-year.
Test pending
made Jan 30, 2024 · due Jan 30, 2027
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We're still headed towards what we believe is that roughly 70% Metallic margin over the next few years.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Jan 30, 2024 · for long-term
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
Regarding the other services line, that number is probably around $40 million annually.
Test pending
made Jan 30, 2024 · due Dec 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
We believe this bodes well for accelerating growth in fiscal year 2024.
Test pending
made Jan 30, 2024 · due Mar 31, 2024
2023 Q4 (25)25 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
We do see some pressure in certain spots. But we're managing through it, which gives us some confidence that our renewal business continues to meet expectations in the quarter and even in the outlook.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
Last quarter, we mentioned that our next milestone for Metallic on the ARR basis was that kind of $100 million ARR. We're well on track to be able to hit that in the near term.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Oct 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
To get to more of the best-in-class SaaS margins, we're still 12 to 24 months out, right?
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
So, from a close rate perspective, we assume roughly similar close rate projections.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Jan 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Howard, how we thought about factoring that into our Q4, our outlook for Q4 assumes that the dynamics that we saw, especially a little bit of the uptick we saw in the Americas quarter-on-quarter continues at those levels.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As it relates to the building, it's going to take one to two quarters to close.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Oct 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
I believe that in fiscal '24, we will begin to see the benefits become more apparent.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect to start seeing some benefits from these reduced salary levels in fiscal Q4.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We continue to work on them. We continue to dialog with our customers and we expect a good portion of them actually to close in this fiscal Q4.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
The expectations that we have as we look out into fiscal Q4 is that the current dynamics that we saw during fiscal Q3, as it relates to the software side of the business, we're expecting them largely to continue as we move into fiscal Q4.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As we look forward into fiscal Q4, we have a slightly bigger renewal population quarter-on-quarter, from Q3 to Q4 as well.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Our projected share count for Q4 is approximately 45 million shares.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Given the year-to-date cash flow results and current U.S. cash balance, our Q4 share repurchases will increase from Q3 levels.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Moving to cash flows and share repurchases, we expect cash flows will sequentially improve in Q4 and continue to believe that share repurchases currently represent the best use of excess cash.
Test pending
fcf · made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Q4 EBIT margins will be approximately 19%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Q4 operating expenses are expected to be approximately $122 million, down 3% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We will see some incremental pressure on our gross margins due to the forecasted increase in services revenue, which includes Metallic SaaS as lower margins relative to our current software outlook.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At these revenue levels, we expect Q4 consolidated gross margins to be approximately 82%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As a result, fiscal Q4 total revenue is expected to be approximately $197 million.
Test pending
revenue · made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Services revenue, which includes revenue from our customer support agreements, professional services, and Metallic, is expected to be approximately $107.5 million with sequential revenue growth driven by our Metallic business.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Q4 software revenue will be flat quarter-on-quarter at approximately $89.5 million.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
The sales transaction is expected to close in the first half of fiscal 2024 with proceeds of approximately $40 million.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Oct 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We also saw very healthy growth in Metallic ARR, which sets up nicely for our next milestone, $100 million in SaaS ARR.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
I think things will, as Gary said, come back to where things were shortly.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Apr 30, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
So therefore, we will see a modest kind of savings impact when we get into maybe the second quarter of fiscal '24. It won't be material, but it will be modest.
Test pending
made Oct 31, 2023 · due Oct 31, 2023
2023 Q3 (13)13 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
If you are considering what to expect moving forward, we are experiencing a low single-digit decline in maintenance revenue, which reflects some of the strategic choices we are making in converting our customers to our new modern subscription offerings.
Test pending
made Aug 1, 2023 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
And I expect that to continue through fiscal Q4 as well.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Aug 1, 2023 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We're probably still another, as we said before, one to two years out from testing SaaS margins, but we're on our path and we're making the progress we need to make just to stay on track.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Aug 1, 2023 · due Aug 1, 2025
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Yes. And as we look at even, Eric, into fiscal Q3, we're expecting some of that to continue. And that's somewhat reflected into our outlook for Q3.
Test pending
made Aug 1, 2023 · due Nov 30, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We will maintain our responsible growth operating philosophy and expect to continue to return at least 75% of free cash flow to our shareholders through repurchases, all while continuing to accelerate our Metallic business.
Test pending
made Aug 1, 2023 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
One item I would like to point out is that second half free cash flow will include approximately $7 million of incremental federal tax payments related to the capitalization of research and development provisions enacted as part of 2017 tax reform.
Test pending
fcf · made Aug 1, 2023 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Our projected share count for Q3 is approximately 45.5 million shares.
Test pending
made Aug 1, 2023 · due Nov 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At the midpoint of our revenue guidance, Q3 EBIT margins will be approximately 21.5%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Aug 1, 2023 · due Nov 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Q3 operating expenses are expected to be approximately $125 million, down 2% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Aug 1, 2023 · due Nov 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At these revenue levels, we expect Q3 consolidated gross margins to be up slightly on a sequential basis to approximately 84%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Aug 1, 2023 · due Nov 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
On a constant currency basis, the midpoint of our software revenue guidance would be up 7% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Aug 1, 2023 · due Nov 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Considering current foreign exchange rates, we expect Q3 software revenue to be in the range of $97 million to $100 million.
Test pending
made Aug 1, 2023 · due Nov 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As a result, we now expect fiscal Q3 total revenues to be in the range of $202 million to $205 million.
Test pending
revenue · made Aug 1, 2023 · due Nov 30, 2022
2023 Q2 (3)3 open
2023 Q1 (10)10 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
Our software and total revenue is currently tracking at or above target, while ARR is currently tracking materially above target.
Test pending
made Jan 31, 2023 · due Jan 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
At this point, we're not changing 32 as an objective, and our objective is to continue to make progress towards that throughout this fiscal year.
Test pending
made Jan 31, 2023 · due Mar 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
In FY'23, we expect to continue with our existing practice to return approximately 75% of free cash flow over time.
Test pending
made Jan 31, 2023 · due Mar 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We remain focused on making continued progress towards our Investor Day target of 32 against the Rule of 40 in fiscal '23.
Test pending
made Jan 31, 2023 · due Mar 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Factoring in the success and momentum of Metallic, we now believe that FY'23 non-GAAP EBIT margins should be in the low 20% range, currently reflected in consensus estimates.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Jan 31, 2023 · due Mar 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We anticipate that this will result in non-GAAP EBIT margins of approximately 20%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Jan 31, 2023 · due Jun 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect total expenses, including cost of sales and operating expenses, to increase approximately 8% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Jan 31, 2023 · due Jun 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Q1 software revenue of approximately $89 million and total revenue of approximately $195 million.
Test pending
revenue · made Jan 31, 2023 · due Jun 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
In fiscal year '23, we expect to accelerate our growth and lead the cloud data management wave.
Test pending
revenue · made Jan 31, 2023 · due Mar 31, 2024
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
We may see a balance that is more pronounced as we ship more revenue growth than margin growth, but it's too early in the process to change that.
Test pending
made Jan 31, 2023 · due Dec 31, 2023
2022 Q4 (9)9 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
We will be opportunistic, and we committed to 75% of free cash flow moving forward.
Test pending
made Nov 1, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
Which is why we remain bullish about the trajectory of our Metallic business. We have a clear first-mover advantage and we will continue to invest to further Metallic's growth and solidify our differentiated leadership position.
Test pending
made Nov 1, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Our projected share count for Q4 is approximately 46.5 million shares.
Test pending
made Nov 1, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We anticipate that this will result in EBIT margins of approximately 20%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made Nov 1, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect total expenses, including costs of sales and operating expenses to be up approximately 6% year-over-year.
Test pending
made Nov 1, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Q4 gross margins to be flat year-over-year or approximately 85%.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Nov 1, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Q4 software revenue of approximately $97 million and total revenue of approximately $202 million.
Test pending
revenue · made Nov 1, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect the deal to close in fiscal Q4.
Test pending
made Nov 1, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Metallic gross margins to improve over time with increased economies of scale.
Test pending
gross_margin · made Nov 1, 2022 · due Oct 31, 2024
2022 Q3 (6)6 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
I mean, we're confident in this guide. Our renewal opportunity is much larger in the second half of the fiscal year.
Test pending
made Jul 26, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
Also, our ARR is tracking very well to well ahead of that 10-plus percent target that we laid out. So at this point, we're not updating any targets, and we still are standing by those two top CAGRs that we put out.
Test pending
made Jul 26, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
That will grow sequentially driven by Metallic.
Test pending
made Jul 26, 2022 · due Oct 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
As I mentioned earlier, we're making progress. And in Q3, we intend to remain focused on attracting new customers, taking share from our competitors and continuing to deliver solutions that help customers do amazing things with data; and in doing so, return to the consistent and predictable results we've achieved over the past year.
Test pending
made Jul 26, 2022 · due Oct 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Our projected share count for Q3 is approximately 47 million shares.
Test pending
made Jul 26, 2022 · due Oct 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
I'd like to remind you that Q4 software revenue historically approximates Q3 levels.
Test pending
made Jul 26, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2023
2022 Q2 (16)16 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
As we outlined during our investor event in January, through FY '22, we are committed to spend $200 million plus 75% of fiscal '22 free cash flow on share repurchases.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due Mar 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We would expect more leverage in the back half of the year, especially with our subscription renewal opportunity and other revenue tailwinds.
Test pending
operating_margin · made May 3, 2022 · due Dec 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Our projected share count for Q2 is approximately 48 million shares.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due Sep 30, 2021
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
In addition, we expect some of the temporary COVID-related savings to continue to normalize.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due Oct 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
This should result in EBIT margins approaching 20%.
Test pending
operating_margin · made May 3, 2022 · due Sep 30, 2021
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect Q2 gross margins to be approximately 86% to 87% and total expenses, including both cost of sales and operating expenses, to be up approximately 4% year-over-year.
Test pending
gross_margin · made May 3, 2022 · due Sep 30, 2021
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
For the full fiscal year, we estimate a renewal opportunity of $80 million, with about 60% of this being in the second half of the year.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due Mar 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Similar to last fiscal year, we expect the Q2 '22 software subscription renewal opportunity to be several million dollars less than Q1.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due Sep 30, 2021
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We also believe that the current street consensus for total revenue of approximately $184.5 million is reasonable.
Test pending
revenue · made May 3, 2022 · due Sep 30, 2021
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
On a software-only basis, $83 million of revenue would be approximately 20% year-over-year growth.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due Sep 30, 2021
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
This would imply year-over-year software growth of 14%.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due Sep 30, 2021
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We believe current street consensus of approximately $83 million of software revenue for Q2 is reasonable.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due Sep 30, 2021
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect a seasonal sequential decline in Q2 operating cash flow as a result of lower concentration of perpetual maintenance renewals in the first half of the fiscal year.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due Sep 30, 2021
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We expect this new agreement will help scale the reach of Metallic around the globe.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due -
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Looking further out, we expect subscription renewals will continue to be a revenue tailwind for the next several years.
Test pending
revenue · made May 3, 2022 · due Mar 31, 2027
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
And as organizations return to the office, we could see some shift in IT priorities given the additional strain on customers' already limited resources. This could impact the timing of large deal closures.
Test pending
made May 3, 2022 · due Dec 31, 2021
2022 Q1 (8)8 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
But longer-term, we'll feel very confident about our near-term targets we laid out during the investor event. Metallic is going to be a key part of that growth.
Test pending
made Jan 25, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
Given our record Q4 2021 results and our current Q1 2022 outlook, we remain confident that we're on track to deliver against the near-term targets that we outlined during the January investor event.
Test pending
made Jan 25, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
As we mentioned during our January investor event, through FY 2022, we're committed to repurchasing stock equal to $200 million plus 75% of annual free cash flow.
Test pending
made Jan 25, 2022 · due Apr 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
I think longer term, you'll see a normalization of that.
Test pending
fcf · made Jan 25, 2022 · due Jan 31, 2023
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
The opportunity is weighted about 60% toward the back half of the year, with Q1 representing approximately $17 million.
Test pending
made Jan 25, 2022 · due Apr 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
We estimate the FY 2022 software subscription renewal opportunity to be approximately $80 million, this compares to approximately $50 million in FY 2021.
Test pending
made Jan 25, 2022 · due Apr 30, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
Looking forward, we plan to accelerate development cycles and add capabilities to this exciting platform.
Test pending
made Jan 25, 2022 · due Dec 31, 2022
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.CONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
I think a reasonable services growth rate for FY 2022 of low-single digits is probably appropriate.
Test pending
made Jan 25, 2022 · due Apr 30, 2022
2021 Q4 (2)2 open