75.0 /100
DIS (DIS)
Other · 104 verified grades · ▼ SandbagsBIASMedian signed deviation across numeric graded claims. Sandbags: outcomes land favorable to guidance. Overpromises: the opposite. Needs at least 6 numeric claims.
What management is on the hook for (239)
hedged · expects · high conviction
2026 Q4 (19)19 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“recall, we originally guided to about $7 billion in fiscal '26, and now we're up to at least $9 billion.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“On content, we're on track to spend $24 billion across the company this year. That's up modestly year-over-year.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And as you saw in the announcement and heard from Josh, we now expect the Experiences segment to deliver OI growth at the high end of the previously provided high-single-digit growth guidance for the fiscal year, excluding the 53rd week.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So looking forward, while we haven't provided a longer-term revenue or margin outlook for the segment, we did just this morning guide to the high end of our prior high-single-digit OI growth for fiscal year '26, and that excludes the 53rd week.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We delivered a 13% SVOD operating margin in fiscal Q3, and we remain on track for double-digit margins in fiscal '26, excluding the 53rd week impact.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And despite the continued macroeconomic uncertainty, we're on track to finish the year strong.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“If there's anything in the fourth quarter, we expect it to be immaterial.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“There'll be a smaller benefit, if one at all in Q4. And the full year impact will really be immaterial because the costs associated with those tariffs were actually in the first half of '26. So really nets to essentially nothing for the year.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We are highly confident in those timelines. The ships coming forward are consistent with the way we have traditionally built ships from scratch ourselves. We have the slot and the shipbuilder is highly reliable in terms of building them out. From that perspective, we feel extremely confident that we will hit the timelines.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“By the end of this calendar year, subscribers will be able to see live TV and add-ons in addition to new features rolling out.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“but we feel good about the returns of these projects well into the future.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“but you shouldn't expect to see the returns on projects deteriorate over time.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I will tell you that this work is ongoing as we look at meaningful reductions to cost, including labor and SG&A, and we'll update you on progress as we move forward.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We also plan to grow content spending from the current levels over time.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Looking forward, the forward bookings at Walt Disney World are up nicely, and the cruise line bookings also look very healthy as we look out to our book of business.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our return on invested capital in Experiences has increased meaningfully over time, and we do expect strong returns into the future.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect to introduce elements of this expanded ecosystem beginning in spring of 2027.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're proud of the growth that we've had this year, and we're investing to sustain that growth and over the lifetime of these projects, deliver double-digit returns.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Forward bookings at Walt Disney World and Disney Cruise Line remain healthy.”
Test pending
2026 Q2 (7)7 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our guidance continues for double-digit segment OI growth. This fiscal year, excluding the 53rd week.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Disney Entertainment segment operating income growth, fiscal year, excluding 53rd week impact
Segment OI growth >= 10% year-over-year SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed segment results (10-K / Q4 earnings release and call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So as we communicated in our letter, we expect 12% growth adjusted EPS for fiscal '26 and double-digit growth of adjusted EPS for fiscal '27 both excluding the impact of the 53rd week.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted EPS growth rate, fiscal year, excluding 53rd week impact
Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS growth >= 12% (excluding 53rd week impact) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings release / 10-K adjusted EPS disclosure and reconciliation (fiscal 2026 Q4/full-year results)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Disney World bookings are pacing up strongly.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Disney World (Walt Disney World domestic parks) bookings/attendance or per-capita guest spending growth trend, as disclosed in Parks & Experiences segment results
Domestic Parks & Experiences segment revenue or operating income growth for the remainder of fiscal 2026 (Q3/Q4) reported as positive year-over-year growth, consistent with 'pacing up strongly' SourceWHERE TO FIND ITDisney quarterly earnings release and 10-Q/10-K, Parks Experiences and Products segment disclosures, management commentary on Q3/Q4 FY2026 earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.macro economyCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“No, we haven't seen any change in consumer behavior from elevated gas prices thus far and are currently seeing a material impact on the remainder of the fiscal year based on forward bookings.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Disney Experiences (Parks & Cruise) segment revenue/attendance growth and full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, as reported in subsequent quarters
Fiscal 2026 Q3 and Q4 Parks & Experiences segment results show continued growth (attendance/revenue growth > 0% year-over-year) with no guidance cut attributed to consumer pullback from gas prices, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance is maintained or raised rather than cut SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings releases and management commentary (Q3 and Q4 FY2026 earnings calls, 10-Q/10-K segment disclosures)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The good news is, as we look forward, we expect growth to improve in the back half, and our forward bookings are very encouraging as we look to the rest of the year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Experiences segment global guests growth (domestic and international parks attendance plus passenger cruise days), second half of fiscal 2026
Global guests growth rate in H2 FY2026 (Q3+Q4) greater than the 2% year-over-year growth reported in Q2 FY2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings release and management commentary on Q3 and Q4 FY2026 earnings calls (Experiences segment metrics)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-30
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And then finally, when we look forward, demand is healthy. We're expecting attendance at our domestic parks in Q3 compared to the prior year period to show improvement compared to the 1% decline that we had reported in Q2, and this will happen as headwinds related to international visitation stabilized, and we begin to lap the opening of Epic Universe.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“As we do this, we will continue to deliver healthy consolidated earnings growth for shareholders.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Consolidated diluted EPS growth (adjusted), fiscal year over prior fiscal year
Adjusted EPS growth rate > 0% year-over-year SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings release / 10-K income statement (adjusted EPS reconciliation)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-05-06
2026 Q1 (7)7 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Hugh, let me just add that both Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash will also be on the streaming service at some point. Between now and the end of the year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Availability of Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash on Disney+ streaming service
Both titles confirmed available for streaming on Disney+ on or before the stated deadline SourceWHERE TO FIND ITDisney+ platform listings / company press releases or management commentary on availabilityKNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we would certainly expect to continue to drive operating leverage going forward even while we invest in international content and invest in technology.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Direct-to-Consumer (streaming) segment operating margin, as disclosed quarterly
Operating margin higher than prior-year comparable quarter (continued year-over-year improvement) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany segment disclosures (10-Q/10-K DTC segment results or quarterly earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Recall last year, we got it to a 5 margin, and we stated we have a goal this year and guidance this year to achieve a 10 margin.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Direct-to-Consumer (streaming) segment operating margin, fiscal year
Full fiscal year DTC/streaming operating margin >= 10% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany segment disclosures (10-K / Q4 earnings release, DTC segment results)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“John, we're not being specific about sort of timing. We're working through all the technical details of that. I imagine it'll be sometime in fiscal 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Availability of Sora-generated user-generated content on the Disney+ platform
Disney+ platform features Sora-created user-generated content live at any point during fiscal 2026 (Oct 2025-Sep 2026) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany announcements or management commentary on earnings calls (Disney investor relations / press releases)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In the back half of the year, we have a really strong theatrical slate between The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Mandalorian and Grogu, and Toy Story 5. And live-action Moana.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Combined domestic box office gross of The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Mandalorian and Grogu, and Toy Story 5
Combined domestic box office gross >= $600 million SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBox office reporting (Box Office Mojo / Comscore) and company commentary on studio resultsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And then last, regarding '27 guidance, no update on that. You should assume that we're not changing any of that or we would have an update. So no change there.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS growth rate (as guided/reaffirmed by management)
Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS growth reported/guided as double-digit percentage (>=10%) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings release / management commentary on fiscal 2027 guidance (10-K or earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“I would guess that that would be coming sometime the end of the calendar year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Launch of fully integrated one-app experience combining Disney Plus and Hulu content
Company announces/launches the unified single-app experience by 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, investor communications, or management commentary on quarterly earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
2025 Q4 (8)8 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I would expect P&L leverage, in other words, expenses growing less quickly than revenue, across all of those items. Which is how we drive the margin growth that we would expect to see.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
DTC segment expense growth rate vs. DTC segment revenue growth rate, year-over-year
DTC expense growth (content, product/tech, SG&A) less than DTC revenue growth, resulting in year-over-year DTC segment margin expansion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany segment disclosures (10-K/10-Q DTC segment revenue, costs and operating income)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The latter half is where we'll really see material growth in ESPN.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
ESPN segment revenue and/or operating income growth (year-over-year), as reported in Disney's segment disclosures
Year-over-year growth in ESPN segment revenue and operating income in H2 FY2026 (Q3 and Q4 FY2026 combined) is clearly positive and greater than the growth rate reported in H1 FY2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITDisney quarterly earnings release / 10-Q and 10-K segment financial disclosures (ESPN segment)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're expecting Cruise to be a meaningful contributor to growth of Experiences during the course of the year, particularly in the second half as we get past the launch costs and some of the dry docks that we have in the first half of the year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Experiences segment operating income growth (year-over-year), with attribution to Cruise line contribution as discussed in management commentary
Second-half fiscal 2026 (Q3+Q4) Experiences segment operating income growth > first-half fiscal 2026 growth rate, with management commentary confirming Cruise as a meaningful contributor SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany segment reporting (10-Q/10-K Experiences segment results) and management commentary on quarterly earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Going forward, we do expect advertising growth going into '26 as well. Despite the fact that we're overlapping political advertising in the first quarter of '26.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total advertising revenue growth (year-over-year), as reported by Disney for fiscal 2026
Fiscal 2026 advertising revenue growth > 0% versus fiscal 2025 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITDisney 10-K / segment disclosures (Entertainment and Sports advertising revenue) or management commentary on fiscal 2026 earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We've been investing for a couple of years and we've now sort of leveled off in terms of those levels of investment. That's something that we think you can look forward to in the out years. Continued strong free cash flow growth from Disney, which obviously gives us a lot of flexibility in terms of the ability to return cash to shareholders.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Free cash flow, full fiscal year
Fiscal 2026 free cash flow greater than fiscal 2025 reported free cash flow SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany cash flow statement / earnings release (10-K or Q4 FY2026 earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are targeting $7 billion in share repurchases in 2026, double the $3.5 billion we repurchased in fiscal 2025.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total share repurchases (cash paid for repurchase of common stock), fiscal year 2026
Fiscal 2026 share repurchases >= $6.5 billion (approximately $7 billion target) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany cash flow statement / 10-K disclosure of share repurchases (fiscal 2026 annual report or Q4 FY2026 earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For fiscal 2026, we expect to deliver double-digit adjusted EPS growth compared to the prior year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted EPS growth for fiscal 2026 vs fiscal 2025
Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS growth >= 10% year-over-year SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings release / 10-K non-GAAP adjusted EPS reconciliation (FY2026 Q4 report)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we determine that, as we have in the past two times, we've had the fifty-third week, we would share something on that with investors and we'd look to grow double digits off of that.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted EPS growth rate for the relevant fiscal year (as guided once the 53rd-week adjustment is clarified)
Adjusted EPS growth >= 10% year-over-year SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings release / management guidance commentary on quarterly earnings callKNOWABLE AFTER2028-09-30
2025 Q3 (10)10 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“As a result of that, I would tell you, we certainly don't intend to stop at 10% margin. We think there's still lots of margin opportunity once we hit double digits, but we're going to do it through a growth-oriented strategy, not through a cost-oriented strategy.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Operating margin (segment operating margin as reported by the company, likely Entertainment/DTC segment given context of 10% margin reference)
Reported operating margin > 10% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings release / 10-K segment disclosuresKNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“As we sit here today, we're already basically half booked out for all of next year, and the newer ships are even higher in that regard.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Booking level (% of available capacity booked) for cruise line for fiscal/calendar next year, as disclosed by management
Disclosed booked percentage for next year >= 50% at a comparable point in time, or management reaffirms 'about half booked' status SourceWHERE TO FIND ITmanagement commentary on subsequent earnings calls (Disney Experiences segment discussion)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“In terms of thinking about bookings for Experiences for the fourth quarter, right now, they're up about 6%.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Overall, as we've talked about in the past, the intent is to grow through both increased attendance and increased per caps in a balanced way, and I expect that's what we're going to continue to do.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Growth in Experiences segment attendance and per-capita spending (per caps), year-over-year
Both attendance and per-cap spending increase year-over-year (both > 0%) in the same reporting period SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed segment commentary (10-K/10-Q Experiences segment results or earnings call remarks)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In addition to that, as it relates to content spend, I'd say that from a domestic perspective, you shouldn't expect that we need to increase the spend on content significantly. Where we believe we should be investing is to grow our international businesses.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Domestic content spend growth rate (year-over-year), as disclosed in company commentary or segment financials
Domestic content spend increases by less than a mid-single-digit percentage (i.e., not 'significantly') year-over-year SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany 10-K/annual report content spend disclosure or management commentary on earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Basically, from a book tax perspective, it won't have any material impact on the company. From a cash perspective, it will be a positive to us.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cash income taxes paid, annual (or effective cash tax impact attributed to OB3 legislation), as disclosed by the company
Cash tax impact from OB3 is positive (i.e., reduces cash taxes paid / increases cash flow) relative to prior guidance or baseline, as characterized by management SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany cash flow statement (10-K) and management commentary on Q4 FY2025 and subsequent earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The thing I would remind you of is we will be overlapping Inside Out 2 from last year, which is obviously a tough comp. But all of that is considered in the guide that we gave you of $585 million for the overall company for the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In addition to that, the Disneyland Paris business, we expect to do very well.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“When we combine -- when we gave people an opportunity to have a more seamless experience between Disney+ and Hulu, we saw engagement increasing. And we would hope that when we take this next step, which is basically full integration that, that engagement will go up even more.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Disney+/Hulu subscriber engagement (e.g., average time spent streaming per subscriber, as disclosed by the company)
Company-reported engagement metric increases from pre-full-integration levels following full integration rollout SourceWHERE TO FIND ITManagement commentary on quarterly earnings calls / DTC segment disclosuresKNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“It likely won't close until the end of next calendar year, but it will be about $0.05 accretive before purchase accounting.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
EPS accretion from the deal (NFL/ESPN transaction), before purchase accounting, in the reporting period after close
Disclosed accretion approximately $0.05 per share (0.03-0.07 range) before purchase accounting SourceWHERE TO FIND ITmanagement commentary / company earnings release and call following deal closeKNOWABLE AFTER2027-03-31
2025 Q2 (14)14 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“with a business that is going to have the growth that we have expectations for in the streaming business, there will clearly be leverage that just comes out of the revenue growth itself.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Direct-to-Consumer (streaming) segment operating margin, as reported in Disney's segment disclosures
DTC operating margin higher in a given quarter than the year-ago quarter's reported margin SourceWHERE TO FIND ITDisney quarterly earnings release / 10-Q segment results (Direct-to-Consumer)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Bookings right now for Walt Disney World for the third quarter are up 4% and that's with about what we would say is about 80% in. And then for the fourth quarter, bookings are up 7%, that's probably somewhere between 50% and 60% at this point.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“I was just taken through a roadmap for the rest of the year. So we're not talking about many years. We're talking about near-term where the technology improvements to the platforms will be significant.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Obviously, the guide that we announced for this year, which was $5.30, we've now taken to $5.75.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“what I would expect going forward is something similar to that.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In addition to that, we continue as we go into the Upfront season to see robust demand for our advertising.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Right now, the advertising market is quite healthy for us.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Meanwhile, we are only a few months away from the launch of ESPN's exciting new direct-to-consumer product offering, and we look forward to sharing pricing and timing details very soon.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capexCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we're planning to invest approximately $30 billion to expand Florida and California, which obviously is a vote of confidence in those locations.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative capital expenditure disclosed for Florida and California theme park expansion (Experiences segment capex commentary)
Cumulative disclosed investment in Florida/California parks expansion reaches or exceeds $25 billion by the stated timeframe SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany 10-K/10-Q capex disclosures and management commentary on earnings calls regarding Experiences segment investmentKNOWABLE AFTER2035-05-07
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we see that business becoming a growth driver for the segment over the next three to four years as more ships are deployed.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Experiences segment operating income growth attributable to Disney Cruise Line, as described in management commentary
Management characterizes cruise line as a growth driver for the Experiences segment in commentary within the 2028-2029 fiscal years SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings calls and 10-K segment disclosures (Experiences segment) over fiscal 2026-2029KNOWABLE AFTER2029-05-07
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“The long-term guide remains intact. What we announced before, no change to that.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted EPS relative to previously disclosed long-term guidance targets (e.g., FY2026/FY2027 growth algorithm and prior long-term EPS growth targets)
Reported/reaffirmed long-term EPS growth targets remain the same as previously announced (e.g., double-digit adjusted EPS growth through FY2027), with no downward revision SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings releases and management commentary on quarterly earnings calls through FY2027KNOWABLE AFTER2027-09-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I would also expect some of those cost reductions to go straight to the bottom line as well to give us accelerated margin growth.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Operating margin (or margin trend) for the relevant segment, as reported
Operating margin higher than the prior year's comparable-period figure, reflecting accelerated year-over-year margin improvement SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany segment reporting (10-K/10-Q or quarterly earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-05-07
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we certainly expect to get operating leverage out of marketing over time.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Marketing expense as a percentage of revenue for the direct-to-consumer/streaming segment
Marketing expense ratio (marketing costs / streaming revenue) lower than the ratio reported for the quarter ended around 2025-05-07 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany segment disclosures (10-K/10-Q DTC segment costs and revenue, or management commentary on earnings calls)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-05-07
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capexCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“while I'm not going to rule out the possibility of another location, there's nothing that's really being planned near-term to actually build another park in what would be an eighth location.”
Test pending
2025 Q1 (8)8 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So overall, level of confidence in the Experiences guide is high.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we've said before, our expectation is for the ship to be profitable in the first quarter and the first quarter, it's in the water. And frankly, that is very much our expectation from here going forward.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our expectation is, particularly as paid sharing starts to take hold and as we add more of the movie slate that we produced in the back half of '24 into the streaming service in '25, we think that content will drive sub growth as well.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So given we're basically sort of slightly up in the first quarter, we'll be similar in the second quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In terms of outlook for DTC subscribers, our expectation is to grow them for the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Basically, we are further into the curve, but the messaging is exactly the same as I gave you last quarter. Bookings are up in the summer right now.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For the full year, our expectation is to be a little over $1 billion.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The plan will be to launch it sometime toward the -- in the fall of this year.”
Test pending
2024 Q4 (5)5 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We do think that product will be additive to us in 2026. And yes, there'll be an investment, then that's part of the 2025 guide. But that investment, we're looking to pay back relatively quickly in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
New product (flagship) contribution to operating income/profitability in fiscal 2026, relative to the 2025 investment
Fiscal 2026 disclosed profit contribution from the new product is positive and offsets the cumulative 2025 investment cost SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings release / segment commentary on quarterly and annual (10-K) filings and earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-30
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Regarding streaming, we expect our growth to come from a balance of pricing as well as growth. It may tilt slightly towards pricing.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capexCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we have modeled in some incremental growth in content spend, not enough to be significantly disruptive to the overall cash flow or algorithm for the company, but we have absolutely modeled that in because we do view international as a terrific opportunity.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we move through the course of the year, we'll move to positive in Q2 and then see further strengthening over the course of the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Q1 will be negatively impacted, of course, by the combination of the two hurricanes as well as the prelaunch cost for the Treasure. So Q1 will be negative.”
Test pending
2024 Q3 (9)9 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Our expectation is we're going to continue on that journey to making more money to get to and then ultimately well surpass the double-digit margins that we've talked about.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“You can expect that it's going to grow nicely in fiscal 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We believe that as we add these new features like the channels that we're going to be adding later this year that and the success of our movie slate, and I'll get into that a little bit more, that the pricing leverage that we have is actually increased.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I do expect to see international strengthen.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I think, again, we're going to be pretty consistent with what we saw in Q3.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Regarding the cruise ships, we've shared a number for this year. The number will be a little over double that in terms of the startup costs in 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We had previously guided to $8 billion. We don't have any news on that, but if there were a material change on it, obviously we would have changed the guide.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And as we mentioned in, earlier in the letter, really just a few quarters. So I don't think I'd refer to it as protracted, but just a couple of quarters of likely similar results.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect to see a flattish revenue number in Q4 coming out of the parks.”
Test pending
2024 Q2 (19)19 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We feel quite bullish about it. Obviously, we're heartened by the results that Netflix has delivered in their password sharing initiative and believe that it will be one of the contributors to growth, as you noted, going forward.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Password sharing beginning next month, in very select markets. We're starting to go after people who are sharing passwords improperly. And that will roll out in earnest or across the globe in September.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“On an enterprise level, we continue to make good progress on our cost efficiency initiatives and remain positioned to exceed our $7.5 billion annualized target.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And I'm pleased to say this outperformance raises our full year adjusted EPS growth target to 25%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“It's a 25-plus margin business and has been for an extended period of time, has terrifically high guest satisfaction scores, which create layers of advantage, would suggest we should be able to sustain high margins and high returns on investment.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“That business should get back to profitability, and we certainly feel good about it being a healthy, profitable business over time.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we lap our way out of the supply increase, I think we're going to be in a good spot as we enter next year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“If we were to back out one-timers both for Q3 and Q4, we expect OI for the quarter to be in the mid- to high single-digit range for Q3 and to be double digit for Q4.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We still expect to generate over $8 billion in free cash flow this fiscal year and the shareholder return goals we've previously spoken about are also still very much on track.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“However, third quarter OI is expected to come in roughly comparable to the prior year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to expect robust operating income growth that experiences for the full year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Looking ahead, note that we are currently expecting to incur linear ICC rights expense at Star India in Q3.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Q3 to date, we are seeing healthy demand driven by the NBA playoffs and domestic ESPN cash ad sales are pacing up.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For Q3, we expect this business to generate modestly positive operating income, an improvement over the prior quarter and prior year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As Bob mentioned, we continue to expect our combined streaming businesses to be profitable in the fourth quarter and expect further improvements in profitability in fiscal 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We also do not expect to see core subscriber growth at Disney+ in the third quarter, but anticipate sub growth will return in Q4.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“On that note, we are forecasting a loss for entertainment DTC in the third quarter, the vast majority of which is due to Disney+ Hotstar's ICC Cricket rights.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We see this as a first step to bring ESPN to Disney+ viewers as we ready the launch of our enhanced stand-alone ESPN streaming service in the fall of 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And while we are anticipating a softer third quarter due in large part to the seasonality of our India sports offerings, we fully expect streaming to be a growth driver for the company in the future and we have prioritized the steps necessary to achieve this.”
Test pending
2024 Q1 (14)14 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And we are also still on track to generate about $8 billion in free cash flow this fiscal year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“On a total company basis, as Bob mentioned earlier, we are still on pace to meet or exceed our $7.5 billion annualized cost target by the end of fiscal 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We still expect to reach profitability at our combined streaming businesses in Q4 of fiscal 2024 and have never been more confident about our path to creating a strong and sustainable streaming business with growing subscribers over the long term, and ultimately, double-digit operating margins, a business which we fully expect to be a key earnings growth driver for the company.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“The board has also authorized the company to begin repurchasing shares for the first time since fiscal 2018, and we plan to start by targeting $3 billion this fiscal year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“I'm pleased to share that the board declared that our next semi-annual dividend to be paid in July will be 50% higher versus the last dividend paid in January.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Next month, ESPN+ will become the exclusive streaming home of Taylor Swift's historic concert film, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, Taylor's Version.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I would expect before we get to the end of the year that we should have this figured out and closed.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We've got some very specific actions that we're taking in the next couple of months, which I discussed earlier, which will benefit us to some degree in the back half of this year and very much next year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Net, no change in guidance versus what we said previously. We should do at least as well as the guidance we previously committed to, which was slight growth in operating expenses year-over-year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We remain optimistic about the segment's continued top line and profit growth, notwithstanding the tough comps domestically in Q2, and we still expect robust OI growth at experiences for the full year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We do not have any new key theatrical releases in Q2 due to production delays stemming from the strikes and expect content sales, licensing and other operating income to come in roughly breakeven for the quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“While we are still in the early days and don't expect notable benefits from these paid-sharing initiatives until the back half of calendar 2024, we want to reach as large an audience as possible with our outstanding content,”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we continue to invest in our growth businesses and maintain our strong balance sheet, we also expect to prioritize dividend payments and share repurchases in the coming years.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total capital returned to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends, fiscal year
Fiscal year share repurchases >= $3 billion and dividend per share maintained or increased versus prior period SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed cash flow statement / capital allocation commentary (10-K, Q4 earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-11-15
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.competitionCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“I do think that this kind of arrangement is one that we'll likely see with other multi-channel distributors.”
Test pending
2023 Q4 (23)23 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So bookings at all of those continue to be very, very strong going forward.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Our plan when we bring ESPN direct-to-consumer, which is inevitable, which is going to happen, and we're planning for it, is to have what I'll call a soft landing, which is continue to make it available as part of the bundle for those people that want to remain in the bundle or people who feel that the bundle still has value to them, and at the same time to make it available on a true [indiscernible] basis in DTC form.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“To that end, we will be recommending to the Board that they declared dividend by the end of this calendar year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we are taking significant concrete steps to continue addressing the cost basis of the overall company. We have increased our annualized efficiency target for total company SG&A and other operating expenses to $3 billion versus $2.5 billion previously, excluding the strike impacts.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“ESPN BET will launch next week through our agreement with Penn Entertainment and we're excited to bring sports fans this compelling new experience.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we're on track to achieve roughly $7.5 billion in cost reductions, which is approximately $2 billion more than we targeted earlier this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“gives us the ability to dial back a bit on some of the spending and investment in series. And that blend of spending between films and series, we believe, gives an opportunity to increase our margins and grow the business.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“All of these factors, in addition to continued growth and improvement across our underlying businesses are expected to come together over the coming fiscal year to result in free-cash flow generation of roughly $8 billion, a significant year-over-year increase and approaching levels we last achieved pre-pandemic.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our expense base in fiscal 2024 is expected to only increase slightly versus the prior year as these efficiencies and strike savings will mostly offset the year's planned volume-related growth and inflation.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect this to be realized on a cash basis in fiscal 2024, although it will take a few years for the bulk of these savings to be reflected in the P&L due to the timing of amortization.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our annualized entertainment cash content spend reduction target is now $4.5 billion, excluding strike impacts and sports rights versus $3 billion previously.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we expect total content spend in fiscal 2024 to be approximately $25 billion, which is a decrease of $2 billion versus 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capexCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“CapEx at Experiences in fiscal 2024 will look more comparable to fiscal 2019 levels and includes spend at our Cruise business ahead of the launch of three new ships in fiscal 2025 and 2026.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capexCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we expect CapEx in fiscal 2024 to total $6 billion, an increase of approximately $1 billion versus fiscal 2023, driven by higher spend at Experiences.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“While domestic Parks and Experiences is expecting solid growth for the full year, that growth will be heavily back-end loaded due to continued challenging comparisons in the first half of the year from the 50th Anniversary at Walt Disney World in addition to wage inflation.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Looking towards fiscal 2024, we anticipate robust annual operating income growth at Experiences to reflect continued strong performance at our International Parks and Disney Cruise Line.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We currently expect that first quarter operating income will be roughly breakeven and comparable to the prior year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Whereas we have also said previously, we anticipate upward momentum later in the fiscal year to be driven by realizing the full impact of price increases, the launch of the ad tier internationally and subscriber growth.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Although as we have mentioned in the past, we don't expect linear progress from quarter to quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to expect to reach profitability at our combined streaming businesses in Q4 of fiscal 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“However, we expect to see sub growth rebound later in the fiscal year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“although given the timing of our planned rollout, we don't expect a meaningful impact until 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect that Hulu and Disney+ will result in increased engagement, greater advertising opportunities, lower churn and reduced customer acquisition costs, thereby increasing our overall margins.”
Test pending
2023 Q3 (15)15 open
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.capacityCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we will be expanding our fleet by adding two more ships in fiscal '25 and another in fiscal '26, nearly doubling our worldwide capacity.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of Disney Cruise Line ships in operation (fleet size)
Fleet size reaches 7 ships by end of fiscal 2025 (two ships added) and 8 ships by end of fiscal 2026 (one more added) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures on Cruise Line fleet (10-K, earnings call commentary, or Disney Cruise Line press releases)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-09-30
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And we're going to have plenty of future cash flow to help fund all of this going forward.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We aggressively reduced costs across the enterprise and we're on track to exceed our initial goal of $5.5 billion in savings.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“What we are saying, though, is that in calendar '24, we're going to get at this issue. And so while it is likely you'll see some impact in calendar '24, it's possible that we won't be complete or the work will not be completed within the calendar year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And to that point, as we've mentioned before, we still expect to be in a position to recommend that the Board declared a modest dividend by the end of this calendar year with the intention to recommend increased shareholder returns over time as our earnings and free cash flow power grows.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Putting this all together, excluding the impact of accelerated depreciation for the Starcruiser, we are still expecting full year total company revenue and segment operating income to grow at a high-single digit percentage rate versus the prior year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are also seeing continued cost pressures in the fourth quarter, predominantly from labor wage rate growth, coupled with $150 million of remaining accelerated depreciation for the Galactic Starcruiser.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to expect some moderation in demand at our domestic parks, as we compare against our highly successful 50th anniversary celebration at Walt Disney World and the burn-off of pent-up demand persists, while elevated travel costs are impacting international visitation.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“It's worth noting, however, that the absence of the Big 10 is expected to drive overall operating income favorability in Q4 versus the prior year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For Q4, we expect this business to generate operating losses up to $100 million worse than last year's fourth quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In Q4, we expect D2C ad revenue to continue to benefit from higher advertiser demand at Hulu as well as from the ramp-up of the Disney+ ad tier.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But currently, we do expect that in the fourth quarter, we will see core Disney+ net adds rebound with growth both domestically and internationally.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Later this year, we will begin to update our subscriber agreements with additional terms on our sharing policies and we will roll out tactics to drive monetization sometime in 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we continue to work toward achieving DTC profitability by the end of fiscal 2024”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“So I'm reasonably optimistic and hopeful that we will be improving our margins in this business significantly over the next few years.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Operating margin of the streaming/DTC business segment (as reported by the company)
Segment operating margin higher than the level reported at the time of the claim (FY2023), measured over the next few years SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany segment reporting (10-K/10-Q or earnings release, DTC/streaming segment results)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-08-09
2023 Q2 (10)10 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“That being said, we also expect increased costs.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So, as we look to reduce content spend, we're looking to reduce it in a way that should not have any impact at all on subs.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We see that momentum continuing, and we also have some new attractions. We've talked about Zootopia coming later this year, and we believe that that is going to drive even further attendance and spending at the park.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Some of it will be, and I say some, will be realized in the balance of this year, really at the end of the fiscal year. But the real impact is going to help us in 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We still expect fiscal 2023 revenue and operating income to grow in the high single-digit percentage range.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And while the softness we saw in Q2 domestic Disney+ net ads may linger into Q3, we do expect core sub growth to rebound in Q4.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And going forward, we intend to produce lower volumes of content in alignment with this strategic shift.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a result, we will be removing certain content from our streaming platforms and currently expect to take an impairment charge of approximately $1.5 million to $1.8 billion.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“While we are continuing to refine our estimates, we currently expect to record additional severance charges of approximately $180 million over the remainder of this fiscal year with the bulk of that additional charge expected in the third quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Over 40% of our domestic advertising portfolio is addressable, including streaming, which we expect will continue to grow over time.”
Test pending
2023 Q1 (13)13 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And one other thing, the streaming business is going to continue to grow, albeit at the expense of linear programming, but consumption of television is not decreasing, is actually going up.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So, we think we have an opportunity to, through more aggressive curation, to reduce some of our costs in the general entertainment side and in general, in volume.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capexCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We still expect cash content spend company-wide to remain in the low $30 billion range for fiscal 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Broadcasting and our other domestic cable networks will be adversely impacted in the second quarter by approximately $300 million, driven primarily by headwinds in advertising, and to a lesser extent, affiliate revenue, and international channels account for the remaining $200 million decrease.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And as a result, ESPN is expected to account for approximately half of the $1 billion operating income decrease.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect Q2 will have the most challenging comparison for Linear Networks versus the prior year and anticipate a significantly lower decline in the back half of the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We now expect Q2 DTC operating results to improve sequentially by approximately $200 million as improvements in the first quarter materialized more quickly than previously expected.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As I mentioned last quarter, we do not expect the launch of the Disney+ ad tier to provide a meaningful financial impact until later this fiscal year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Disney+ core ARPU will continue to benefit in the second quarter from the domestic price increase.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we have said before, sub growth will vary quarter-to-quarter, and we expect to see higher core subscriber growth towards the end of the fiscal year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Domestic parks and experiences operating margins improved versus the prior year despite increased cost from inflation, operation support and new guest offerings, pressures, which we expect will persist into Q2 and beyond.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“That fiscal 2023 segment operating income should grow in the high single-digit percentage range, which is still our current expectation.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“On the content side, we expect to deliver approximately $3 billion in savings over the next few years, excluding sports.”
Test pending
2022 Q4 (7)7 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Cash content spend totaled $30 billion in fiscal 2022, and we continue to expect it to be in the low $30 billion range for fiscal 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And at Disney+ Hotstar, we are currently expecting that subscribers will decline in Q1 due to the absence of the IPL, but we do expect to see some stabilization in Q2.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In particular, while DTC programming and production costs will increase from Q4 to Q1 over the course of the year, content expense and OpEx growth should slow as we approach steady state and marketing costs should decline as we continue to focus on aligning our costs with our dynamic business models.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Similarly, we do not expect the launch of the advertising-supported tier of Disney+ in December to provide a more meaningful financial impact until later this fiscal year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Looking ahead, we expect to see linear subscriber declines accelerate more in line with industry trends.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Looking towards fiscal 2023, while we continue to monitor our booking trends for any macroeconomic impacts, we are still seeing robust demand at our domestic parks and are anticipating a strong holiday season in Q1.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And assuming we do not see a meaningful shift in the economic climate, we still expect Disney+ to achieve profitability in fiscal 2024 as losses begin to shrink in the first quarter of fiscal 2023.”
Test pending
2022 Q3 (12)12 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we remain confident that Disney+ will achieve profitability in fiscal 2024 and look forward to several upcoming catalysts including reaching a steady state of tentpole original content releases, delivery of premium general entertainment and international local originals and the upcoming launch of our ad-supported tier alongside the new pricing structure announced earlier today.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we still expect our full year 2022 tax rate is going to be somewhat elevated above the US statutory rate similar to what you saw. And for Q4 it could even be slightly above Q3.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“but also, we expect as we go into developing our full slate that the next quarter you will see a similar increase year-over-year that you saw this quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Peak losses, we expect peak losses -- as of today, we expect Disney+ to reach peak losses in this current fiscal year '22.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And then we look at beyond domestic, what we can do internationally, and we plan to go international sometime next year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But we expect the ad tier to be popular and we also expect some people to want to stay with ad-free.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we expect the international visitation when it is fully back to actually be additive to margins, because those guests tend to stay longer at the parks and they spend more money when they're there as well.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect that business to come back to the similarly attractive returns that we had previously experienced.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we are seeing the same momentum well into Q4, as we continue to celebrate the 30th anniversary and the opening of Avengers Campus in July.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Looking ahead, domestic demand at our theme parks continues to look robust with current forward-looking hotel bookings and intent to visit roughly in line with pre-pandemic trends.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we currently expect Disney+ core net additions in the fourth quarter to accelerate modestly versus Q3 and particularly in the domestic market.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“But we believe that, there's probably going to be some more ultimate elasticity in that as well as we go forward.”
Test pending
2022 Q2 (15)15 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We're very confident that going forward, we're going to hit both of those sub guidance and profitability guidance by bringing in the cost at a reasonable level relative to their ability to attract and retain our subs.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So that domestic yield strategy has really structurally allowed us to increase that per capita spending meaningfully without having to rely solely on raising ticket prices, and we don't see any end in sight for that.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So we believe that we can sort of move up and cascade up our net price over time given the tremendous value that we started with and the increased price-value relationship of all the new content, but we're pretty bullish about that.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And as Bob mentioned, we are confident in our long-term subscriber guidance of 230 million to 260 million Disney+ subs by fiscal 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I will say that you can look to our experience with Hulu and their ad-supported tier. We believe that this will contribute to ARPU.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we also expect Hulu, as you know, which has been very strong for us at the same time, to be a key contributor of our performance at the upfront this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're expecting a very positive reaction from advertisers overall.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We also still expect that Disney+ will achieve profitability in fiscal 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Note that we are still expecting a strong content slate in the back half of the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At Disney+, while we still expect higher net adds in the second half of the year versus the first half, it's worth mentioning that we did have a stronger-than-expected first half of the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And by the end of Q3 we plan to roll out Disney+ to 53 new markets across Europe, Africa and West Asia, starting with South Africa next week.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“180 of those titles are slated to premiere this fiscal year, increasing to over 300 international originals per year in steady state.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Demand is strong, and we expect 100% utilization through the end of Q3.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“At DPEP, closures at our Asia theme parks could adversely impact operating income in the third quarter by up to approximately $350 million versus the prior year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“And we currently expect the full year tax rate could remain somewhat elevated above the U.S. statutory rate.”
Test pending
2022 Q1 (4)4 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we continue to manage our services for the long term and maintain confidence in our guidance of 230 million to 260 million total paid Disney+ subscribers globally by the end of fiscal 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we continue to expect growth in the back half of the fiscal year to exceed growth in the first half.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But by '23, we want to get to a steady state, which is even higher than we have right now.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But as we've said over the last few earnings calls, that will rectify itself in the second half of this year, we've already reached 1 of our 2 goals.”
Test pending
2021 Q4 (12)12 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“I've said this before and I'll say it again, that I believe that we will get not only back too, but have high probability of exceeding those previous margin levels in our parks because of some of the things we've done.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we're confident we are on the right trajectory to achieve the guidance that we provided at last year's Investors Day, reaching between 230 million and 260 million paid Disney+ subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024, and with Disney+ achieving profitability that same year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we expect advertising to continue to be an important driver of Hulu revenues going forward.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So while these margins will remain impacted, while we are still operating under capacity constraints, again, we believe over the long term that these fundamental changes are going to yield -- are going to result in higher margins overall.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I think the recovery that you mentioned in terms of getting the growth rate back up to where it's been historically, is really going to come in the third and the fourth quarters.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“However, we expect that the prolonged recovery we're seeing in the theatrical market, paired with the marketing costs associated with each release may adversely impact theatrical operating results in the first quarter by approximately $300 million versus the prior-year quarter, which had only 2 releases.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“However, we also expect that while we continue to pursue strong cost mitigation efforts, certain costs will be elevated in fiscal '22 versus pre -pandemic levels, including for example, inflationary pressure on wages, costs related to new projects and initiatives such as Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge, Avengers Campus, and the EPCOT expansion and a ramp up of expenses in support of our cruise ship expansion.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“At DPEP, we expect that per cap spending at our domestic Parks in fiscal 2022 will continue to significantly exceed pre -pandemic levels, and we are particularly encouraged by the early response we are seeing to Genie at Walt Disney World.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“While we expect social distancing restrictions on our ships to remain in place for at least the first half of fiscal 2022, booked occupancy on our ships for the second half of the year is already ahead of historical ranges at significantly higher pricing.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our goal is to more than double the number of countries we are currently in to over 160 by fiscal year '23.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“next year, we plan to bring Disney+ to consumers in 50 plus additional countries, including in Central, Eastern Europe, The Middle East, and South Africa.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we announced at our last Investor Day that we expect our total content expense to be between $8 and $9 billion in fiscal 2024, and we will now be increasing that investment further with the primary driver being more local and regional content.”
Test pending
2021 Q3 (8)8 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“On Hotstar, at Investor Day, we said that we anticipated Hotstar to be between 30% and 40% of total Disney+, and we’re not updating that guidance at this point.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we’ve indicated before, we do believe our first half adds this fiscal year will be stronger than the second half adds.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In LatAm, we will be -- LatAm, the launch for LatAm is in later this quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The IPL is coming back. It’s scheduled to come back on September 19, and it will run through, I believe, the last final match is scheduled for mid-October, around October 15.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So, I think you’ll see disproportionate benefit as we go from here on.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I think some of the cost implications that we need to do for hygienic purposes are going to be relatively short-lived. And frankly, in the grand scheme of operating our parks, not all that material.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Additionally, we’re excited about the launch of Star+ throughout Latin America later this month.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The launch of Disney+ in Eastern Europe has moved from late 2021 to summer of 2022, primarily to allow for an expanded footprint that will include parts of the Middle East and South Africa.”
Test pending