General Motors Company (GM)

“We realized $500 million in the first half and expect most of the remaining benefit flow through in the third quarter.”

“With all of our momentum, we're confident in 2026, and have said it will be stronger than 2025. More importantly, that 2027 and the years beyond will be stronger still.”

“We still believe that we've got a good trajectory of continued margin expansion and continued EBIT growth and share buybacks into the future.”

“As Mary mentioned, based on what we know today, we believe we can grow revenue, margins, EBIT, and free cash flow next year.”

“I'm proud to say that we believe these actions substantially complete the material cash charges we expect to incur as we align our EV capacity and manufacturing footprint with the changes in regulatory policy.”

“Our next major launch, the next generation Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra light-duty pickups, will further separate us from key competitors when they begin arriving in showrooms in December.”

“Their efforts are leading us to raise our 2026 guidance for the second time this year.”

“The real volume opportunity comes in the very late 2027 or more in the 2028 timeframe, when all of the engine plants are launched, and then we have Orion capability as well. That's where the growth from a volume perspective, it's really in 2028.”

“On a variable profit, it'll normalize and we expect better particularly if we're able to take additional pricing.”

“That's where we can see benefit into 2027 and 2028 beyond what we're seeing in 2026.”

“That's approaching seven and a half by the end of the year.”

“Additionally, as we also continue to repurchase shares, we can expect even further EPS growth.”

“This momentum carries into 2027, where amortization of our existing deferred and subscriber growth is expected to drive double-digit growth in realized revenue, building on our estimated full-year 2026 realized revenue of more than $3 billion.”

“We also expect onshoring costs to build as the year progresses, with the fourth quarter having the largest impact as we prepare to transfer Escalade production to Orion Assembly.”

“From a cadence perspective, we expect the fourth quarter to be somewhat weaker than typical seasonal patterns would imply, primarily due to the launch of our new full-size trucks, including higher launch-related costs and anticipated year-over-year volume headwind of approximately 35,000 units.”

“Finally, turning to our international operations, we continue to expect some softness in GM International ex China, reflecting the dynamic environment in the Middle East.”

“We expect these costs to ramp further in the second half as we approach production in 2027.”

“Separately, we are also investing approximately $1 billion-$1.5 billion this year to onshore production to the U.S., strengthen our supply chain, and expand our software capabilities.”

“Given the lag in how these costs flow through our results, the recent improvements should begin to benefit us in the fourth quarter and into early 2027.”

“We realized approximately $600 million in commodity costs in the first half and expect that headwind to increase in the second half, largely because it reflects two quarters of higher costs rather than just one.”

“We continue to expect commodity inflation, logistics, and higher DRAM costs to be a headwind of $1.5 billion-$2 billion for the full year.”

“We expect the gross tariff impact in each of the third and fourth quarters to be similar to the impact of the second, which was around $900 million.”

“We continue to expect gross tariff costs of $2.5 billion-$3.5 billion for the full year, which is largely flat year-over-year.”

“The pricing benefit is expected to be smaller in the second half as we lap last year's 2026 model year price increases.”

“On pricing, we recognized a $600 million year-over-year benefit in the first half and now expect full-year North America pricing to be up around half a percent, which is at the high end of our prior guidance.”

“We recognized approximately $400 million in the first half and expect a smaller benefit in the second half as we begin to lap the savings that started in the second half of 2025.”

“We continue to expect a full-year benefit of $500 million-$750 million, primarily from lower regulatory credit amortization.”

“Warranty is tracking to a $1 billion-$1.5 billion improvement year-over-year for the full year, above our previous assumption of up $1 billion.”

“We expect EV wholesale volumes to be up slightly in the second half, as we resume building to demand.”

“Turning to EVs, we continue to expect losses to improve by $1 billion-$1.5 billion for the full year, driven by right-sizing our EV capacity and significantly lower volume.”

“We expect second half year-over-year volumes to be up in a similar range.”

“adjusted automotive free cash flow of $9.5 billion-$11.5 billion, up from $9 billion-$11 billion previously.”

“EPS diluted adjusted of $12-$14, up from $11.50-$13.50 per share, and adjusted automotive free cash flow of $9.5 billion-$11.5 billion, up from $9 billion-$11 billion previously.”

“We now expect EBIT adjusted of $14 billion-$16 billion, up from $13.5 billion-$15.5 billion.”

“The business remains within its full-year EBT adjusted guidance of $2.5 billion-$3 billion and is on track to pay full-year dividends to GM similar to last year.”

“We have $3.5 billion remaining under our current repurchase authorization and expect to continue to consistently repurchase shares, supported by strong cash flow and our ending Q2 automotive cash balance of $19.7 billion.”

“As Mary mentioned, the investments we are making to onshore production, launch key vehicles, and expand full-size SUV capacity will give us more flexibility and position us to grow revenue, gain market share, and improve profitability in 2027.”

“This includes ISV awards that are expected to exceed $1 billion based on the U.S. Army's procurement objectives.”

“We are expecting a top-line revenue CAGR for GM Defense of more than 30% over the next several years with double-digit margins.”

“GM Defense expects 2026 revenue to grow to almost $700 million and is targeting positive results on an EBIT basis for this year, while also building a backlog of future business.”

“The business has scaled from 3 states in early 2024 to 21 states today, making GM Insurance available to over 60% of GM's U.S. sales, and we are on track to reach over 80% in the near term.”

“We're estimating 160,000 incremental Super Cruise units from this product enhancement strategy.”

“Next year, the growth should be even higher because we're making Super Cruise standard on high-end Silverado and Sierra trims and optional on most everything else.”

“At the same time, our high-margin software and services revenues continue to grow rapidly with 1 million new subscriptions expected this year, contributing to more than $3 billion in recognized revenue.”

“We are onshoring significant manufacturing starting next year, which will bring our U.S. production capacity to more than 2 million units and further reduce our tariff exposure.”

“Starting next spring and continuing into 2028, we will begin launching the next generation of Cadillac ICE vehicles, including the all-new CT5, XT5, and XT6”

“We plan to maintain record production volumes year-over-year while launching the trucks at three assembly plants, along with our next generation V8 engines, which are launching at three propulsion plants.”

“Well, I would say as we look at that ramp will start in the third quarter and then we'll accelerate.”

“And we expect to have substantially all of that cash paid out before the end of this quarter -- this quarter being the second quarter.”

“We're optimistic that as we get more product out to the dealers in Q2 that we can help to reverse some of the share losses that we saw without getting into heavy discounting across the board.”

“To date, we've already recorded around 90% of the expected total supplier commercial claim costs, and we anticipate reaching agreements in principle on most of the remainder during the second quarter.”

“We remain focused on delivering 8% to 10% North American margins this year.”

“We're going to continue to work and try to manage it in that 50- to 60-day range.”

“No change to our pricing guide.”

“We're not projecting or worried about any shortages right now.”

“We're not anticipating any material downtime at this point.”

“So we're really looking at the current environment kind of persisting for the year.”

“Pretty much the onshoring costs are going to be really heavily weighted towards the back half of the year, as expected, and we start to hire people to get the plants running in early '27.”

“We think that will hold.”

“For the calendar year, we expect deferred revenue to approach $7.5 billion, up more than 35% year-over-year.”

“We are on track to reach 13 million subscribers by the end of 2026, up by $1 million year-over-year with a monthly average revenue per subscriber of around $20.”

“For the calendar year, we expect $3.1 billion of recognized revenue, up 15% year-over-year.”

“We are maintaining our adjusted auto free cash flow guide of $9 billion to $11 billion with a heavier weighting to the second half.”

“GM Financial continues to expect EBT adjusted in the $2.5 billion to $3 billion range, including accelerated depreciation on its EV lease portfolio.”

“On regulatory costs, we continue to expect $500 million to $750 million tailwind year-over-year.”

“We continue to expect a benefit of $1 billion to $1.5 billion for the calendar year as we rightsize our EV capacity and run at substantially lower EV wholesale volumes.”

“For EVs, we expect volumes to be lower as the market shows early signs of stabilizing around 6% of U.S. industry sales.”

“ICE volumes are expected to be flat to modestly up though production is constrained due to the major refresh on full-size pickups as well as the end of production of the Cadillac XT6.”

“On price, we continue to expect to be flat, up 0.5%, benefiting from model year 2026 price increases.”

“However, we anticipate some softness in our international operations outside of China due to the impact of the conflict and around on Middle East wholesales in particular.”

“Relative to our international regions, we expect China to remain profitable and to deliver results consistent with 2025.”

“Meanwhile, our gross tariff costs are now expected to be $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion for the year, down from our original guidance of $3 billion to $4 billion because of the tariff adjustment we took in Q1.”

“The incremental $500 million is expected to be more or less equally weighted across the remaining 3 quarters.”

“As a result of these changes, we are increasing our full year guidance for year-over-year commodity inflation, including logistics and higher DRAM costs to $1.5 billion to $2 billion.”

“At the same time, our FX outlook has improved from a small headwind to neutral for the full year.”

“While our execution and discipline helped drive first quarter outperformance, we now expect incremental commodity and freight costs versus our original guidance.”

“Based on what we know today and assuming the SAAR remains in the low 16 million unit range, we are raising our overall EBIT adjusted guidance to $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion up from $13 billion to $15 billion.”

“We have been and will continue to divert some full-size SUVs and pickups from the Middle East back to North America, helping to alleviate low domestic inventory levels.”

“We're off to a terrific start to deliver a North American margin in the 8% to 10% range for the full year.”

“We continue to expect most of the remaining cash flows to occur in 2026.”

“We expect about $1 billion of this will have a future cash impact.”

“On warranty, we continue to expect a year-over-year tailwind of $1 billion with first quarter results improving roughly $200 million versus the prior year.”

“Looking ahead, we are working to increase inventory levels of key products and believe that we can take this higher over the next several quarters while being mindful of the broader demand environment.”

“The continued growth of this ecosystem... will help pave the way for our eyes off, hands off technology launching in 2028 on the Cadillac Escalade IQ.”

“Our subscription performance is on pace to exceed 850,000 subscribers by the end of the year with strong renewal trends in the 30% to 40% range.”

“We are on pace to add more than 1 million OnStar subscribers in 2026 with about 30% of our existing customers choosing a premium plan.”

“We are continuing to execute our plan to return to 8% to 10% EBIT-adjusted margins in North America for the full year.”

“But there may be a small impact, especially since we're running so lean from the current year.”

“So while we have this uncertainty, I think holding our numbers consistent net of [ AEPA ], I think is the prudent thing to do with all this uncertainty. And if things abate, then we could potentially see upside in the future.”

“We anticipate another $100 million of pressure in Q1 2026.”

“The midpoint of our EBIT adjusted guidance supports this outcome and we are confident in our ability to deliver this goal ahead of investor expectations.”

“Importantly, as Mary noted, we believe we have a clear and achievable path back to eight to 10% North America margins in 2026.”

“While this includes a placeholder for potentially higher incentives due to the competitive environment, we are confident in our ability to maintain pricing discipline.”

“As of now, we don't see any issues that are going to impact our ability to produce.”

“So we should end up at a position where our net tariffs are actually lower in '26 than they were in 2025.”

“They are high-yield savings accounts and broker deposits. So as it gets up and running, again, complementary to our footprint, not gonna replace how we fund the business but we'll be complementary to it and allow us to bring down the cost of funds in the basis points over time and on our debt complex, you know, that's a meaningful move.”

“What I would say is going into this year, we're not modeling any increase this is really just the annualization of what we did in twenty-five.”

“GM Financial is once again expected to deliver EBT adjusted in the 2.5 to $3 billion range, reflecting a stable credit environment.”

“While these initiatives create near-term pressure, they will increase the capacity of our highly profitable full-size pickups and SUVs as well as to help further mitigate tariff costs beginning in 2027.”

“We expect headwinds in the range of one to 1 and a half billion dollars associated with the onshoring of vehicle production to the US investments to enhance supply chain resiliency, and investments to support our software initiatives.”

“This growth is expected to help increase deferred revenue from $5.4 billion at the 2025 to approximately 7 and a half billion dollars by the '26.”

“We expect an increase of around $400 million of high-margin revenue generated from the expansion of OnStar software and services including Super Cruise.”

“While some uncertainties remain in the regulatory environment, we are anticipating a benefit in the range of 500 to $750 million primarily related to savings from no longer having to purchase compliance credits.”

“Lower production tax credits in 2026 should then represent a tailwind in 2027 as we resume normalized production.”

“We anticipate a benefit of one to $1.5 billion related to the actions we've taken to rightsize our EV capacity.”

“We expect North America ICE wholesale volumes to be flat to up modestly.”

“As we look ahead to 2026, we expect these cost savings to be sustained and believe there are additional actions that can help mitigate our tariff impact.”

“Moving forward, we expect material but significantly smaller cash and noncash EV-related charges as we continue commercial negotiations with our supply base and address proposed regulatory changes to greenhouse gas emission standards.”

“Looking ahead to 2026 and 2027, we expect to invest 10 to $12 billion annually including approximately $5 billion to expand US manufacturing capacity for some of the highest demand vehicles and further reduce our tariff exposure.”

“Also in 2028, we expect to launch our second-generation software-defined vehicle architecture for ICE vehicles and EVs.”

“LMR will help us reduce cell and pack costs by several thousand dollars.”

“Then in 2028, we expect to launch our breakthrough LMR battery chemistry.”

“As we look further ahead, our annual production in the US is expected to rise to an industry-leading 2 million units after we begin production of the Chevrolet Equinox in Kansas, bring the Chevrolet Blazer to Tennessee, and add incremental capacity for the Cadillac Escalade and launch our next-generation full-size pickups at Orient Assembly in Michigan.”

“We expect our deferred revenue from software and services to be approximately $7.5 billion by the end of this year up nearly 40% from 2025.”

“This year, we will continue to grow our Super Cruise business in North America and expand into South Korea, the Middle East, and Europe.”

“As a result, we expect full-year EBIT adjusted margins in North America will be back in the 8% to 10% margin range.”

“On the pricing, I would say it's largely gonna be a 2027 tailwind, I think, going forward.”

“So we're not banking on any significant inventory builds, although it is an opportunity, to get back into that fifty to sixty-day range.”

“GM Financial is on track to deliver on its guidance of $2.5 billion to $3 billion of EBT-adjusted for the full year, reflecting continued strong performance.”

“we are raising our calendar year 2025 guidance to EBIT-adjusted of $12 billion to $13 billion, EPS diluted adjusted of $9.75 to $10.50 per share and adjusted automotive free cash flow of $10 billion to $11 billion.”

“On heavy-duty tariffs, the impacts to GM will be minimal and are already factored into the tariff guidance we've provided.”

“Based on our performance, I'm pleased to share that we are raising our full year guidance.”

“So we expect that, that can be stabilized for us.”

“We do expect there to be some additional charges in 4Q.”

“We did expect that we'll see EV sales slow in October and probably through Q4 based on the pull ahead that we saw in Q3.”

“We will maintain disciplined production levels and are on track to achieve our year-end inventory target of 50 to 60 days.”

“In the fourth quarter, model year 2026 pricing will be partially offset by higher seasonal industry incentives.”

“For the full year, we continue to expect North American pricing to be up 0.5 point to 1%.”

“We expect to offset around 35% of this lower gross tariff impact through go-to-market cost and footprint initiatives.”

“Our gross tariff exposure for 2025 has improved from the original $4 billion to $5 billion gross impact to a range of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion, driven by the expansion of the MSRP tariff offset.”

“We expect capital expenditures to be at the lower end of our $10 billion to $11 billion guidance range as we recalibrate our plan in light of policy and upcoming footprint changes.”

“Looking ahead, we expect our share count to continue trending lower as we continue to repurchase shares.”

“We continue to expect the full year to be profitable.”

“In October, we are not surprised to see EV demand soften significantly, and we expect this trend to continue into early 2026 before we see what the natural demand is for EVs.”

“Adjusted automotive free cash flow was $4.2 billion, partially aided by $300 million in cash tariff offset reimbursements, which have now commenced and will continue into Q4.”

“This is resulting in higher variable costs as we expect to utilize less capacity across our EV plants and supply chain.”

“And that's where we feel comfortable that we -- I believe, we can get our net tariffs to lower than what they are in 2025.”

“We see a clear path back to our historical 8% to 10% EBIT margins in North America over time and remain committed to continuing to repurchase shares in accordance with our capital allocation policy.”

“But we certainly expect that we can get into a stable run of improving profitability, but we do have a ways to go, and we're going to be patient about how we do that.”

“But maintaining that discipline, I think, is going to be helpful for us into 2026.”

“So balancing those capital needs within the constraints of how much cash we're generating, I think it's hard to poke at our free cash flow generation and what we've done with that discipline. So I think we're very, very good where we're at, at the $10 billion to $12 billion range for the next couple of years.”

“But as we said, we do expect that 2026 can be better than 2025, assuming a similar macro backdrop going forward for all the reasons that we articulated.”

“So all of those things we expect will hold into 2026 and the manufacturing footprint bucket can expand a little bit.”

“I think our commentary that we could see '26 being better than '25, you start with, if the environment is the same, there's a lot of tools that we have that can lower our costs and drive better performance.”

“as we've said that we expect that we can be in a position where our net tariff exposure, which is net of our self-help initiatives, could be lower in '26 than it was in 2025 despite having an extra quarter that we have to lap.”

“As a result, we expect next year to be even better than 2025.”

“Additionally, this supports tariff mitigation in 2026 and beyond while we work to adjust our supply chains.”

“We expect robust double-digit revenue growth through the end of the decade with gross margins of about 70%.”

“Looking ahead, our top priority as a leadership team remains returning North America to our historical 8% to 10% EBIT margins.”

“And when Orion Assembly comes back online in early 2027, it will produce the Cadillac Escalade and then add our next generation of full-size light-duty pickup trucks.”

“By acting swiftly and decisively to address overcapacity, we expect to reduce EV losses in 2026 and beyond, making us much better positioned as demand stabilizes.”

“Once these investments come online, we plan to produce more than 2 million vehicles per year in the United States.”

“but you would expect that seasonally there's going to be more cash generation in the second half versus what we did according to that guide when you look at the midpoint.”

“Well, I mean, we we we remain committed to our 50 to 60 day target at the at the end of the year.”

“So I don't expect any material adjustments from Cathay.”

“But that'll materialize in the second half of the year. On the cash side.”

“On the cash side, we actually expect that that cash impact you know, potentially to be lower.”

“we're still comfortable with our pricing assumption of, you know, up a half to to one percent for the year going forward.”

“That number will we expect, ultimately get better as inventory comes down and we see more stability in pricing.”

“While we anticipate headwinds to EV profitability from lower volume, to the recent removal of government incentives, we remain focused on controlling what we can.”

“As mentioned earlier, we are making solid progress on our mitigation efforts and remain on track to offset at least 30% of this impact.”

“For the full year, while there have been some puts and takes since we gave our initial guidance, our gross tariff impact remains unchanged at $4 billion to $5 billion this year as we continue to produce and import vehicles from Canada, Mexico and Korea to avoid interruptions for our customers and dealers.”

“As a result, we will likely see third quarter net tariff costs higher than in the second quarter.”

“Pricing remains stable in the second quarter as well as so far in July. Our guidance assumes this continues throughout the second half of the year.”

“The second is that we expect North America wholesale volumes to be down a low”

“The first is an additional quarter of net tariff impact in the second half which accounts for around $1 billion of this gap.”

“At the midpoint of our full year guidance, this suggests that second half results will be about $1.75 billion lower.”

“Our guidance and most of our underlying assumptions remain unchanged at EBIT adjusted in the $10 billion to $12.5 billion range EPS diluted adjusted in the $8.25 to $10 per share range and adjusted automotive free cash flow in the $7.5 billion to $10 billion range.”

“GM Financial delivered EBT adjusted of $700 million and is on track to deliver within the full year EBT adjusted range of $2.5 billion to $3 billion”

“We expect this strong performance to continue into the second half of the year.”

“We expect the headwind from fleet pricing to continue into the second half of the year.”

“And for the full year, we now expect warranty to be a year over year headwind.”

“Our annual capital spending outlook remains unchanged at $10 billion to $11 billion for 2025, with a modest increase to $10 billion to $12 billion projected for 2026 and 2027.”

“However, we're still tracking to offset at least 30% of the $4 billion to $5 billion full-year 2025 tariff impact through strategic actions such as manufacturing adjustments, targeted cost initiatives, and consistent pricing.”

“Our projected Super Cruise revenue will be more than $200 million in 2025 and is expected to more than double in 2026.”

“We're on track to have more than 600,000 customers by year-end, each of whom has paid upfront for three years of service with 70% of new Cadillacs delivered equipped with Super Cruise.”

“By the end of the year, our customers will have access to more than 65,000 public fast charging bases across the country.”

“Well, Emmanuel, I think, you know, from a capital perspective, you know, feel very comfortable with with where we are at the ten to eleven, and then we've announced that, you know, with the footprint changes that we we'll we'll go to ten to twelve over the next couple of years,”

“But going forward, we do expect to be more, I guess, a lower expense rate for compliance in the future.”

“In 18 months from now, the capacity, the $4 billion that we talked about that capacity will come online and then that will have another step function improvement.”

“I think what's gonna happen though, as we've always said, we feel we'll be able to offset 30% A lot of that will come in later this year as well as we'll continue to make improvements across the board as we get into next year.”

“with a modest increase to $10 billion to $12 billion projected for 2026 and 2027.”

“We have also confirmed that Altium sells Springhill and Tennessee will begin producing LFP cells developed by our Korean partner LGES in addition to high nickel pouch cells starting in late 2027.”

“The capacity begins coming online in just 18 months after which we project building more than 2 million vehicles in the US each year as we scale.”

“As we continue to scale, we anticipate growing at a robust double-digit CAGR through the end of the decade.”

“That will grow to more than 80,000 by the end of next year and 100,000 by the end of 2027.”

“then we get to fourth quarter, we'll probably see a little result of that pull ahead. We get into 2026, so I think we'll start to understand what real EV demand is.”

“We reaffirmed our capital being in that 10% to 11% range.”

“Adapting to this dynamic environment will take some time, but we remain confident in our ability to respond effectively and offset at least 30% of our exposure.”

“They're telling me by the calendar year end, we'll have over 700,000 vehicles that are Super Cruise equipped.”

“The $4 billion to $5 billion is our estimated impact after the President's actions for 2025. It does not include the 30% offsets that we talked about.”

“GM has $4.3 billion of capacity remaining under share repurchase authorization, but we are temporarily pausing additional repurchases until we have more certainty with respect to our operating environment.”

“For GM Financial, we continue to expect EBT adjusted in the $2.5 billion to $3 billion range, and we also continue to expect capital expenditures in the range of $10 billion to $11 billion including battery JV investments.”

“We expect higher profitability in the second half driven by seasonality and some new launches.”

“GM International outside of China should be similar to what was delivered in 2024.”

“For GM International, we expect a tailwind from restructuring the China business and are continuing to target profitable equity income for the full year.”

“We anticipate commodities to be relatively flat year-over-year, while rates for steel and aluminum have increased recently, these are somewhat mitigated by our limited exposure to index pricing.”

“With cruise operations now included in North America, we are continuing to target at least $500 million in year-over-year savings versus in 2025 versus 2024.”

“Going forward, we will continue to remain disciplined and manage EV production in line with demand.”

“As a result, we expect North American pricing to be up 0.5% to 1% year-over-year versus our prior guidance of being down 1% to 1.5%.”

“We now expect pricing to be relatively consistent for the remainder of the year.”

“This results in EBIT adjusted in the $10 billion to $12.5 billion range, EPS diluted adjusted in the $8.25 to $10 per share range and adjusted automotive free cash flow in the $7.5 billion to $10 billion range.”

“For vehicles that are USMCA compliant, which all of our North American produced vehicles are, the US content is not subject to the tariff once necessary administrative processes are implemented in the coming weeks.”

“Comparisons become easier as the year progresses, and we expect fixed costs including cruise, but excluding depreciation and amortization to be roughly flat year-over-year in 2025.”

“Despite around $500 million of incremental expenses for the L87 in the second quarter, we expect warranty to still be a slight year-over-year tailwind in 2025.”

“For example, all new Buick will be launching in China starting in the second half of this year and they will be new energy vehicles and the premium models will be marketed under the Electra sub brand.”

“All of these units are expected to be recovered in the second quarter.”

“The success of these products also supports the 2025 Super Cruise growth targets that we outlined in January, which include doubling the number of Super Cruise equipped vehicles on the road.”

“With the policy clarity we now have, we are updating our full year EBIT adjusted guidance to a range of $10 billion to $12.5 billion including a current tariff exposure of $4 billion to $5 billion.”

“In 2027, we expect our joint venture with Lithium Americas to open Phase 1 of the Thacker Pass project in Nevada and we are contracted for 100% of that offtake.”

“Going forward, we expect to continue to make progress on our EBIT improvement journey, but the actual year-over-year improvement is going to depend on total volumes and tariffs.”

“Well, Emmanuel, thanks for the question. We're really proud of the strong free cash flow generation that we had in 2024, and we expect another year of very strong free cash flow.”

“I think we're assuming fairly consistent pricing on EVs from what we've seen.”

“So, the overall assumption is that wholesales would be down a little bit because we didn't have that opportunity to build.”

“And if we don't see that, I would expect that we'll outperform that assumption as we have in years past.”

“Our full year EPS guidance assumes weighted average diluted share count of approximately 1 billion shares, which excludes the impact of any future open market purchases.”

“Capital spending is expected to be similar year-over-year and in the $10 billion to $11 billion range, including battery JV investments.”

“We are forecasting another year of robust adjusted automotive free cash flow. However, we anticipate year-over-year headwinds in the range of $1 billion to $3 billion from the non-repeat of working capital benefits realized in 2024, primarily from dealer inventory restocking, the timing of payments for previously accrued liabilities, notably warranty and the inclusion of Cruise spend.”

“We expect an increase in earning assets, driven by both loan and lease portfolios.”

“GM International outside of China should be similar to what was delivered in 2024.”

“We anticipate other costs outside of Cruise and the EV profitability improvements to be favorable. This is mainly due to variable costs such as commodities and logistics, which are expected to more than offset headwinds from depreciation and amortization and higher labor costs.”

“Regarding Cruise, our guidance includes around $500 million of the $1 billion annual savings we previously discussed. This is based on our assumption that Cruise employees will be fully integrated into GM by mid-year.”

“This improvement is based on wholesales of around 300,000 units and is predicted to come from scale, fixed cost absorption and a continued focus on cell and vehicle cost reductions.”

“We do anticipate some headwinds in both volume and mix, stemming from a modest decline in ICE wholesale volume in North America as we appropriately balance dealer inventory levels.”

“With respect to possible tariffs, we are working across our supply chain, logistics network and assembly plants so that we are prepared to mitigate near-term impacts.”

“We expect to see a run rate savings of about $1 billion on an annualized basis by ending robotaxi development, and we look forward to acquiring the small number of Cruise shares we don't own and finalizing the restructuring plan later this quarter.”

“This year, an additional 33,000 vehicles will end their trial period and we target to more than double subscription revenue.”

“This year, we expect the Escalade IQ, OPTIQ and VISTIQ to further grow GM share of the luxury EV market.”

“The momentum we have in both ICE vehicles and EVs will drive our results once again in 2025.”

“Within five years, we expect to approach about $2 billion in total annual revenue from Super Cruise.”

“Should we see consistent demand as we would expect, I think there's an opportunity to take some of that ICE wholesale volume up.”

“I mean -- thanks, Tom. I keep going back to this. When we talk about the pricing assumption, it's really a combination of ATP and the incentive environment... but we've modeled in the risk or the assumption that there's some incentive increases going forward, whether that's market-driven or demand-driven, et cetera.”

“Going forward, I think we were projecting an opportunity or some pretty big ICE impacts from not having as much restocking.”

“We are optimistic that our intense focus on driving down repair costs and improving quality will reduce our warranty costs over time.”

“We believe that we can turn around the losses, and that's why we have a series of meetings with our partner to make the hard decisions to get the business to be sustainable and profitable.”

“So we've said that we believe that we can get there in early 2025.”

“but there are a lot of things that go into that where you know we're going to see labor cost inflation next year.”

“We are on track to produce and wholesale approximately 200,000 EVs this year and reach variable profit positive in Q4.”

“Given the positive momentum we've seen thus far and our confidence in the rest of the year, we are narrowing full-year 2024 guidance too. EBIT-adjusted to the $14 billion to $15 billion range; EPS-diluted-adjusted to the $10 to $10.50 a share range, which are both at the high end of our prior guidance; and increasing our adjusted automotive free cash flow to the $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion range.”

“I also want to highlight our ongoing commitment to financial discipline and that we are on track to meet our $2 billion net fixed cost program by the end of this year.”

“We will also have our full range of Equinox EV and Blazer EV models in the market starting in the first quarter, including a new more affordable Blazer as well as an expanded portfolio of GMC Sierra EVs.”

“we are on track to produce and wholesale about 200,000 EVs in North America this year and make our portfolio variable profit positive this quarter.”

“So we think that there is an opportunity to continue to expand that... our best estimate today, based on the momentum we see and where we see EV adoption going next year, is that we can realize meaningful savings in our EV profitability.”

“We'll see some depreciation headwinds next year that we expect going into.”

“Yes, I think – Tom, thanks for the question. I think as you look at some of that lapping, it certainly could be. It's not going to be a benefit like we saw in the third quarter, and that's some of the walk between Q3 and Q4.”

“But we do expect that by the end of the year as is consistent with our targeted to be back in that 50 to 60-day range.”

“We have also incorporated an impact from higher EV volumes and lower pricing in part due to higher seasonal industry incentives.”

“For EBIT-adjusted, our guidance assumes lower earnings in the fourth quarter, in part due to the $400 million I discussed earlier, along with lower expected ICE wholesale volume, which can be attributed to two factors.”

“GM Financial has consistently performed well with third quarter EBT-adjusted of $700 million, down $50 million year-over-year due to credit reserves within our expectations and still tracking in the range of $2.75 billion to $3 billion for the full-year.”

“The seasonally strong fourth quarter sales period, launch timing and lower wholesale due to the holiday season as well as continuing discipline with our production levels puts us on track to end the year with total ICE inventory in our targeted range of 50 days to 60 days and an appropriate level of EVs.”

“Our current estimate is that we will retire approximately 25 million additional shares associated with the program in the fourth quarter, bringing the total number of shares retired as part of this program to nearly 250 million.”

“We anticipate that the ASR will be completed by the end of October.”

“We are nearing the completion of our first definitive agreement, and we expect to have something to share soon.”

“Our Cadillac portfolio is expected to be another driver of volume and share growth, conquest sales and EV profitability improvements as we go forward.”

“The training should really pay off in 2025 as we continue to expand our truck portfolio with both lower-cost and longer-range versions of the Silverado EV.”

“And we are once again raising our adjusted automotive free cash flow.”

“We expect our full-year EBIT adjusted to be in the range of $14 billion to $15 billion and EPS diluted adjusted to be in the range of $10 to $10.50, both at the upper end of our previous guidance.”

“Our long-term target is 40% to 45%.”

“We hope to – well, one, we'll be gated by safety, but we hope and we're working hard to get there by the end of the year meeting the higher standard of role model driver as opposed to, I'll say, average human driver.”

“Yes. Yes, it should. As we come out with the new full-size SUV refreshes, hopefully later this year, early next year.”

“So some of that, we think, probably stabilizes as we get into the fourth quarter as we lap those – fully lap those price increases from last year, but it's something that we've tried to hold on to.”

“So we think that slows down a little bit as we get to year-end, but we're going to continue to watch that. But I think it can be a little bit of a tailwind next year, but probably not as much as we saw in 2024.”

“But we believe that we'll be successful in that $2 billion cost reduction target that we laid out, and we're not going to stop there.”

“The last item on EVs is that I'm pleased to report that we are making good progress towards achieving vehicle variable profit on our EV portfolio in the fourth quarter.”

“adjusted automotive free cash flow in the $9.5 billion to $11.5 billion range.”

“we are raising full-year 2024 guidance to EBIT adjusted in the $13 billion to $15 billion range”

“Given the positive momentum we've seen thus far and our confidence in the rest of the year, we are raising full-year 2024 guidance to EBIT adjusted in the $13 billion to $15 billion range, EPS diluted adjusted in the $9.50 to $10.50 per share range, and adjusted automotive free cash flow in the $9.5 billion to $11.5 billion range.”

“We remain on track to achieve $2 billion of net fixed cost savings by the end of 2024.”

“We're confident that we can meet customer demand for standout EV trucks in the interim by leveraging the production capability and flexibility we have in factory zero.”

“Our Super Cruise ramp has been slow because of some of the chip availability that we have. We're now expected by year-end this year to have Super Cruise on 22 nameplates”

“And then the second factor in the second-half is that our credit typically seasonally in the second half is weaker than the first-half, so our provisions will be higher.”

“The couple of factors that would be headwinds in the second-half are that we're going to have less lease terminations in the second-half, along with expectations for mildly lower used car pricing.”

“We're still holding to that, although with the 200 to 250, we pulled that from the second-half to the fourth quarter.”

“So I think we've been saying for a long time that our consumer has held up really well and it's been resilient. And we expect that to continue to be the same way.”

“This has helped reduce our average cell cost by roughly $30 a kilowatt hour, sequentially from the first quarter, and we expect further improvements in the second-half of the year.”

“Third, EV volumes are expected to build sequentially every quarter to achieve our full-year target of 200,000 to 250,000.”

“This includes about $400 million higher marketing spend to support more launches in the back half of the year.”

“Our guidance assumes pricing to be down 1% to 1.5 year-over-year in the second-half versus essentially flat in the first-half, which is a substantial improvement from where we started the year.”

“GM Financial has consistently performed well with second quarter EBT adjusted of $800 million, up $50 million year-over-year and tracking in the range of $2.75 billion to $3 billion for the full-year.”

“We will continue to monitor our inventory and adjust production as necessary to maintain our targeted inventory levels of 50 days to 60 days.”

“And our guidance includes a similar benefit in both the third and fourth quarters, totaling around a $1 billion benefit for the full-year.”

“We expected the allowance to be substantially lower in 2024 as we improve EV profitability and reduce our inventory levels.”

“The open market share repurchases supplement the ongoing $10 billion ASR that is projected to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year, bringing our share count down to 1.1 billion.”

“We had expected to return to profitability in China in the second quarter. However, we reported a loss and we expect the rest of the year will remain challenging, because the headwinds are not easy.”

“The Chevrolet Equinox, our highest volume SUV, will also be all new, and we expect it to be more profitable than the outgoing model, just like our family of mid-size Buick, GMC, and Chevrolet SUVs.”

“So we have that opportunity. We can decide what we put on the fleet or what segments we put based on where we see the regulatory environment... As we've already said, we plan to have hybrids in key segments in the '27 time frame.”

“As time goes on, if customer deliveries were to continue lagging wholesales, we will take proactive steps to balance production levels.”

“We are on track to reduce our shares outstanding to fewer than 1 billion.”

“we remain on track to achieve our 200,000 to 300,000 unit production and wholesale volume target for 2024.”

“we are on track to achieve the full $2 billion net of depreciation and amortization by the end of 2024.”

“So we plan to efficiently invest between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion in capital this year to leverage the strength of not only our ICE business but also grow our EV business profitably.”

“generally, seasonality, we expect to be very similar with Q1 and Q4 being slightly lower than Q2 and Q3.”

“And in the second half of the year, we'll see cells that have much closer to current prices.”

“So while we saw battery costs come down, remember, we exited the year with a pretty sizable inventory of cells as we ramp up our module production. So as a result of that, there's still some historical costs in there from last year. But that will flip pretty much, I think, by the time we get to mid-summer.”

“I think what we're looking at is kind of breakeven on the variable profit side around low 200,000.”

“we should expect to see that consistently growing throughout the year.”

“You're right that at the end of the day, 2% to 2.5% for the rest of the year is in our assumptions.”

“our mid-single-digit margin target in 2025.”

“this pricing action doesn't change our expectation to achieve positive variable profit for our EV portfolio in the second half of the year or our mid-single-digit margin target in 2025.”

“As we continue to ramp, we expect to see the benefits from the production tax credit continue to grow and our fixed cost absorption to improve meaningfully.”

“cell plant number two in Tennessee is ramping even faster based on the learnings from plant one and is expected to reach full installed capacity by the end of the year.”

“We expect full year Cruise expenses to be around $1.7 billion.”

“Having made progress reducing inventory levels, production is normalizing, and we expect to return to profitability in Q2.”

“We expect to recover most of this volume in the second half of the year.”

“We will then introduce more affordable trim series for the Chevrolet Equinox EV, the Blazer EV and the Silverado EV in the second half of the year, which will help grow volume and share.”

“We are projecting to double our current capacity by the end of the summer.”

“I think we could see third quarter production trend a little bit higher, but we're going to be guided by where demand sits.”

“So we see a little bit of pressure in the back half from that. But overall we'll remain consistent. And as I've said, if we don't see that pricing softness, I would expect that there's an opportunity to outperform these numbers.”

“So $18 billion to $20 billion feels very comfortable as the targeted range.”

“But I think for calendar year 2024, EV is our focus. And we think we've got tremendous growth opportunity as we free up getting the availability of the products to customers.”

“That lower battery raw material cost of about $4,000 a vehicle that we articulated, we'll also have some annualization benefits in 2025 since we're not getting the full benefit here in 2024.”

“And our full year EPS guidance assumes the weighted-average fully diluted share count of slightly below 1.15 billion shares.”

“Our 2024 effective tax rate is assumed to be in the range of 18% to 20%, up from last year, primarily due to the global mix of earnings and lower R&D credits primarily due to lower Cruise spend.”

“We expect our capital spend to be similar to 2023, inclusive of $500 million to $1 billion of investments in our battery JVs.”

“We are forecasting another year of robust automotive adjusted free cash flow, but we anticipate modest year-over-year headwinds from 2023 working capital benefits that we assume will not repeat and the timing of payments associated with accruals recognized last year.”

“In November we gave an update on our path to EV profitability with an estimated EBIT margin improvement of more than 60 percentage points and a lower overall EV loss in 2024 compared to 2023, even when you exclude the impact of the inventory adjustments.”

“We expect $1.3 billion in higher labor costs, along with logistics being a slight headwind year-over-year, primarily driven by higher finished vehicle shipping costs.”

“We expect this to be substantially lower in 2024 as we continue to make progress toward our EBIT margin targets on EVs.”

“Coming into 2024, we are well positioned with roughly $20 billion of auto cash and marketable securities and will appropriately balance our capital allocation priorities with the plan to continue to return capital to our shareholder through repurchases and our new higher dividend rate.”

“Spending will be down considerably this year, but we will continue to invest in the people who are advancing the software, specialized hardware, and AI capabilities.”

“We expect that our 2024 capital spending will be in the $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion, which is roughly flat year-over-year and down considerably from the $13 billion top of our end initial 2023 guidance.”

“In 2024, the savings are expected to be about $200 million.”

“The team has improved the automated equipment at our assembly plant used to build modules and installation of new high capacity assembly lines should be complete by mid-year.”

“We work closely with our dealers to ensure consistent pricing for our customers, which we estimate will impact no more than about 25,000 vehicles.”

“On the battery front, our Ultium Cells joint venture is at full production in Ohio, and the new plant in Tennessee will begin shipping cells this quarter.”

“We also have more than 10,000 -- excuse me, 100,000 reservations and orders for EV pickups that we expect to fulfill in 2024 and 2025.”

“Let me be clear, GM remains committed to eliminating tailpipe emissions from our light duty vehicles by 2035.”

“However, if demand conditions change, we'll take advantage of our manufacturing flexibility in Spring Hill and Ramos to build more ICE models and fewer EVs.”

“So, we're not slowing the ramp of the battery plants down at all.”

“Well, first on the first question, we remain committed to low single-digit margins IRA.”

“No, we plan on having the ramp at Lordstown will continue as it is.”

“Yes, we're committed to the $2 billion that we've talked about.”

“And I am confident we will achieve our targets and grow from there.”

“GM International is on track to deliver significantly higher EBIT in 2023 compared to a year ago thanks to our operating discipline and the lift we're getting from successful vehicles like the Chevrolet Montana and the Trax.”

“So, as I mentioned before, we will have the Lordstown plant up full capacity at the end of this year, which then allows for it to have a full-year next year.”

“So, I expect there will be parts where there's some inflationary pressure, but as we've said over the last couple of years, the amount that we spend on expedited logistics, et cetera has been coming down as the chip shortage and some of the supply chain shortages have been tempered from the peaks in 2021 and 2022.”

“But everything that we're seeing in the demand set right now is pretty strong for our vehicles, and we expect that to continue through the rest of the year.”

“Given a more agile approach to our EV transition, we now expect to retime at least $1.5 billion of capital spending at our Orion plant, implement engineering improvements, and improve EV profitability prior to accelerating production of battery electric trucks.”

“Moving forward, we estimate that the impact of the UAW strike to be approximately $200 million per week based on the facilities impacted as of yesterday.”

“We also expect to achieve significant margin improvement on our battery electric trucks through engineering efficiency and improvement, supplier cost, and reducing order complexity, buildable combinations, and manufacturing.”

“Next year, production in Ohio is expected to rise to 100 million cells.”