Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)

“EPS, as I said, is a little pressured in Q3.”

“We have a good view on the second half. We think it is going to be a strong second half for the company”

“When you put these things together, we feel confident telling you that earnings for 2027 are going to be strong.”

“Despite the material investments we are going to have in A&C, you are going to see EBIT growth in both Q3 and Q4.”

“We feel very good about the EPS guidance we gave for the full year, recognizing there are a couple of items below the line in Q3 that are going to cause a little bit of a hiatus between EBIT and EPS, but really nothing structural and nothing to worry about.”

“EBIT in absolute dollar terms is going to be up in both Q3 and Q4, more in Q4 for a series of reasons.”

“You're going to see an acceleration of the gross profit dollar number, particularly in Q3 and also in Q4.”

“So I feel optimistic about the second part of the year in Europe. I think you are going to see a much better top line, we are happy with the share numbers, and importantly, you are going to see a rebound in profitability as well.”

“We do not see major concerns. The Middle East crisis is causing some impact on top and bottom, more on the bottom line, and we have factored that into our guidance for the second part of the year.”

“That runway of distribution almost everywhere is one of the reasons we believe we can perform well on top-line growth.”

“The way things are going this year, the portion of net revenue from innovation will continue to increase.”

“Expect better spending going forward—possibly higher spending but with better execution on how we spend A&C.”

“I personally believe that combined with Lotus Bakery's own innovations—like Biscoff with a layer of Cadbury or milk on top—the collaboration could be worth $500 million to $1 billion in the coming years.”

“We mentioned previously that we are going to have a full relaunch for Oreo, and I believe that will help drive North American volume mix.”

“Into 2027 you will see positive volume mix and continuous momentum in emerging markets.”

“Earnings are expected to be strong and somewhat insulated from commodity volatility.”

“In terms of top line, what we said—at least 2%—reflects positive volume mix and a modest contribution from pricing.”

“I would not guide you specifically to volume mix for the second part of the year, but it will be positive.”

“I feel quite good about 2027, and as we exit the year with momentum, we expect continuation into 2027 on top and bottom.”

“as we have mentioned, 2027 earnings are expected to be strong and, quite frankly, earnings are insulated from commodity volatility for us at least.”

“For this year, we are going to have at least half a million metric tons of surplus, which is equivalent to about 10% of total demand for cocoa—so not inconsequential.”

“That really sets the stage for continued top-line and bottom-line growth in 2027.”

“Volumes are positive, and we see that continuing through the second half, particularly as we start lapping prior-year pricing.”

“From a phasing standpoint, Q3 and Q4 will be a little more Q4-back-weighted on the below-the-line earnings.”

“From an EPS standpoint, we are maintaining our outlook.”

“I would say the shape of the top-line growth would be balanced between the two halves, so we would expect to see similar levels of growth across the remaining quarters.”

“North America: improving execution, and despite a soft consumer, we expect to continue to grow both share and top line in North America.”

“Emerging markets, strong volume-led growth—we expect that to continue.”

“We do feel good about the top line, and you have seen us take the top line to at least +2%.”

“We are expecting a very strong second half in North America.”

“We think that will continue in the second half.”

“And I think that we will continue to see strong growth in emerging markets for us.”

“I would not project a number much higher than 2.5% for the second part of the year at this stage.”

“We are at or slightly above that benchmark and would like to see it rise toward 15% over time.”

“If you add these legs up, this could reach several hundred million dollars.”

“Having said that, you're going to see a volume and revenue inflection as we go into the second part of the year in the U.S.”

“We are well covered for oil and packaging costs for the remainder of the year. And quite frankly, also into 2027, but some regulated market do not allow us to do anything in terms of protecting ourselves, and that's the cost headwind that will materialize in the remainder of the year”

“I guess you're going to see volume and revenue turning around positively for the remainder of the year in the North American business.”

“We are extremely pleased with the performance of Sour Patch Kids. It is a brand that most likely for the year is going to grow double digit”

“that's where we decided to guide for clear EPS in line with what we said the last time.”

“So overall, I would say we feel good about where the chocolate market is, where the reaction of the clients and the competition has been, and we expect that the year will continue quite strongly.”

“I think we will continue to see a gradual improvement of our North American business because we are increasing our brand reinvestments.”

“So in terms of top line, I would say in chocolate specifically, flat pricing, in terms of volume, some implications as the risk of disruption, as there is customer disruption in Europe. And in terms of cost, higher cost in the first half versus the second half.”

“But on profit, given the way our inventory accounting works, we will face some headwinds, and we mentioned that in the prepared remarks.”

“But we also planned for some disruption due to the usual customer negotiation process that takes place in the first part of the year.”

“As it relates to margins, we feel that overall from a commodity perspective that things will ease, particularly in cocoa. And so we can see a significant uplift in our chocolate margins in 2027.”

“So all in all, the investment in A and C over two years, I think it's going to be substantial if you take 2024 to 2026. It's up quite meaningfully.”

“And if you look over a couple of years, between 2024 and 2026, we will more than recover what we have to pull back in 2025 into the overall line.”

“So we see our chocolate business in 2027 increase its margin in a considerable way.”

“I think if you look at the way the 2026 plan is structured in Europe, there are more promotions. We are going to offer more value to some of the consumers. And all in all, I think while 2026 can be a new base, 2027 can really be a step change for our chocolate market overall around the world, including Europe.”

“If cocoa ranges at around 3,000, our goal is to get into 2027 with a much improved situation. And to really be able to get back to the old profit pool.”

“And so we are aiming for a strong EPS growth in 2027, but at the same time, we want to keep on investing in our brand.”

“For 2027, we expect that we will do another step up in investments. We believe that we have to continue to invest in our brands.”

“We expect that gradually to be better, and also the lapping effect will help us over the year.”

“So all that, we expect also will have a positive effect of volumes as compared to 2025.”

“And in chocolate, the price increase as we discussed, is going to ease. In fact, we are readjusting some of our pricing in certain markets.”

“Then in Europe, what I expect there is that the first of all, in our other categories, we had a pretty good year already in 2025. We expect that to continue, and I'm talking about biscuits, cakes, and pastries and meals.”

“We expect that the volume decline that you see in the category of 4% will ease, but we are not exactly counting on volume growth in North America.”

“Yes. I mean, if I go through the regions, we clearly expect AMEA overall. If you look at how we're doing in India, in Australia, China, coming back. So we see EMEA as being a big source of volume growth for us.”

“The idea is to continue with lower nonworking media but to clearly step up in the working part.”

“The idea for 2026 is, again, to grow this market pretty much at the same level, but there will be a little bit less contribution from pricing and more contribution from volume mix.”

“So in general, you should think about pricing net of cost as slightly positive to neutral for chocolate. That's the way we have prepared the plan.”

“The idea is to have a neutral to positive balance in chocolate specifically between cost and pricing and albeit pricing is not going to move much.”

“In all of these, investments in A and C is equally spaced throughout the quarter, so no material changes I would say, quarter on quarter in absolute terms. Of our AFC investment.”

“And so as we move through the year, I think you're going to see a sequential improvement of volume and revenue, but most importantly, in terms of EBIT phasing.”

“And, albeit the pipeline cost is coming down in 2026, we need to keep a level of pricing that is pretty much the same as we have in 2025.”

“As you might imagine, at this level, we are not going to price cocoa further, but it is also important to know that our profit took quite a material hit in 2025.”

“In Europe, we have planned for a chocolate category that is stable after the meaningful prices that were taken.”

“Particularly as we see some short-term pressure points like in The US, you know that the biscuits category is still subdued, and, you know, the plan is that it will continue like that for the first half at least. With some marginal improvements in the second half.”

“We are planning to increase our investments behind our brands because in this year, our cocoa coverage is at a better cost than it was in 2025.”

“If it then looks at Latin America, as Luca was saying, they're also we think that it's going to be quite a good year for us.”

“The emerging markets will continue growing and hopefully they will do even better than what is embedded quite frankly, in the guidance.”

“But as we said, we are fine-tuning our pricing strategies and our promos, and so you will see a little bit of more pricing kicking in, and that will have a positive impact on both the top and the bottom line.”

“And importantly, in places like Mexico, China, India, Brazil, et cetera, I think the top line will continue to be good.”

“And we expect that not to improve, but not worsen either in Q4.”

“Yes, we expect a bit of a rebound in Europe. Definitely, there is going to be a big activation around Christmas, and so the team is full steam ahead in terms of delivering the season and -- so you will see a little bit of a volume step-up in Europe, and that's one of the drivers.”

“4% is year-to-date organic net revenue growth, we are guiding you at more than 4%.”

“But overall, I would say, seen the fact that this was the heaviest cocoa cost that we would have in the year, from here going forward, we expect a significant improvement. We expect to see a significant improvement in Europe.”

“Going forward, you will see a big step-up of that line into 2026, and we firmly believe that the virtuous cycle that has delivered great results for us will have to be put back in place in 2026, particularly as there is cocoa coming down and there is a cost favorability due to that.”

“But rest assured that we are driving for volume growth in chocolate in Europe, we are going to restore top line and bottom line in the U.S. And third, emerging markets will continue growing for us.”

“So cocoa will be deflationary in '26, and we wanted you to hear that our goal is clear in terms of EPS growth for next year. And so we are really targeting a high single-digit EPS growth for 2026, even after the material investments that we're going to put into the business to really protect the long-term growth of our categories.”

“It's certainly going to be positive even if cocoa is trading at a level that is quite higher compared to historical norms.”

“On one hand, as we explained, we think that the chocolate situation will significantly improve and that will allow us also to invest more into North America.”

“And so we expect that line to be in level to 2025 in 2026, with the exception, obviously, of the incentive that will be planned at 100% for 2026.”

“The second element is non-working media that has been managed in a declining mode for 2025 and that will continue into 2026.”

“I think it will be a meaningful impact, again, that you will start seeing most likely as of 2027.”

“And the third component is really the U.S. where we are not projecting an improvement of the market situation, but where we will have material benefits coming out of channel expansion, us investing more in our brands and importantly, going after things that are really working well for us and doubling down on those.”

“I think the way you have to think about the top line is in three key components. One, it is Europe, where clearly, chocolate pricing might be deflationary. But as a consequence, the elasticity that we saw on the way up, should happen on the way down as well. And importantly, I think we will be seeing volume growth in the chocolate business for 2026 in Europe.”

“So those -- all those activities combined at this stage, make us believe that we can get to positive growth next year in U.S.”

“But we have done our homework, and we believe there is not going to be a material volume repercussion on consumption in our case.”

“I said many times that when I look at the underlying per kilo of cocoa or the chocolate business gross profit dollars, I see a number that I like as we exit the year.”

“I think you're going to see a rebound of the North American profitability, particularly in Q4.”

“In terms of plussing the plan up, what we have done is, first of all, we have announced incremental pricing that is going to take effect in a few weeks in North America.”

“Our categories are showing continued strength, and we are maintaining our full year outlook.”

“But I think we now have that behind us, and Q3 should be clean as it relates to retailer inventory.”

“So we expect that after all the price increases -- and even if cocoa comes down, I'm not expecting that it will come down enough for us to see significant price reductions in chocolate.”

“Our biscuits business continues to do well. Excluding North America, actually, year-to-date, revenue is up a little bit more than 7%. And again, we project a continuation of that.”

“We don't have reasons to believe that elasticity is going to be worse than what we planned for at this point in time.”

“Now there is pricing. So revenue should go up from the -- what you have seen, particularly this quarter on the positive side. And clearly, bottom line should go up as well from what we have seen this quarter.”

“And today, I think we can strike a contract with supplier for most likely half of that price and ratio.”

“As it relates to the U.S., we really don't see an immediate change. If anything, I think the consumer will see the full effect of the tariffs in the second half.”

“We have not planned for a material rebound of the category in the rest of the year.”

“So I'm expecting that we will have to increase our investment in our brands also in North America next year.”

“I'm not expecting that, that immediately will be better next year.”

“I don't believe necessarily the stock price is going to go down much, I hope, from here. But in case it does, we are going to be pragmatic and buy back more stock.”

“In the first case, I think we might need or not additional pricing based on where cocoa is. If it stays where it is, I think all the actions that we are about to take from now to the end of the year in some of the markets, I think, will put us in a good spot.”

“And potentially in 2026, we'll step it up depending on the level of cocoa to the point where we really reestablish a virtual cycle, which is volume growth, share growth, generation of GP dollars and again, good cash for the company.”

“I think we will have a very good situation in terms of profitability at the end of the year in terms of GP dollars and that will put us in a good position to grow earnings into 2026.”

“So you will see an acceleration of the revenue growth in Q2.”

“We remain disciplined on capital allocation. We will continue to buy back stock in a sensible manner.”

“We are reaffirming inflation levels, interest and tax costs as well as share repurchases.”

“Our outlook for '25 remains unchanged for organic revenue, earnings per share and free cash flow. This includes approximately 5% revenue growth, which reflects successful customer negotiation and pricing in Europe as well as a softer demand environment in the US.”

“These results, along with solid category growth, reinforce our continued confidence in our full year outlook.”

“So I think there we will also see an acceleration.”

“So I'm expecting that Brazil will remain there, maybe accelerate a little bit.”

“We expect China, which I mentioned first to remain at high-single-digits for the rest of the year.”

“That impact is going to get into the P&L in Q4, specifically in North America as a driver.”

“Trade destocking is a one-time impact. You saw that it is meaningful. It is 2.5 points, 3 points of volume mix in the US and we assume that is non-recoverable in the year to go.”

“So we expect our European business to continue to do well.”

“We do expect to improve the trajectory of the India business beginning in Q2 through targeted activation, distribution gains and an improving macro backdrop resulting from income tax relief and recently enacted interest rate cuts.”

“We can now focus on driving demand and expect positive developments in Europe for the remainder of the year.”

“Although not particularly large, these are incremental to our last call and have been factored into our current earnings outlook.”

“Translation ForEx impacts have changed and we are now expecting no impact to net revenue and EPS from foreign currency for the year.”

“So a long answer to say that in either case, the plan is non-regrettable actions into 2025 and very well positioned at the end of 2025 to expand top and bottom line into 2026 for the chocolate category.”

“If cocoa stays high, quite frankly, I would say we don't expect at this point in time a material headwind into 2026.”

“It is early to provide specifics on 2026, but we still expect EPS growth for next year.”

“I can't rule out the fact that there will be maybe a little bit more pressure going forward from tariffs.”

“It's all going to depend where cocoa goes in the rest of the year and where cocoa will be next year, but if it stays at the high level it currently is, we might need to implement more RGM in the second half of the year or the beginning of next year.”

“But also bear in mind that if we have earnings upside, we will be reinvesting in the business as we are trying to enter '26 from a stronger position.”

“It is also important to note that if we do see further improvement in cocoa, we will likely reinvest a portion of that saving back into the business.”

“We are committing to you that EPS in 2026 will grow either way and we want to be ready for the worst.”

“The typical targets that we have is about a 4% gross productivity on our supply chain... we are planning to reach that in '25.”

“The difference is you're going to see sequential price improvement throughout the year, particularly as of Q2, Q3 and Q4, and that will provide benefits to the profitability of the company.”

“Your assumption should be that, that level of cocoa keeps until for the full 2025 at this level -- at this point in time, that's our assumption.”

“We are expecting approximately $0.12 of EPS headwind related to ForEx for the year.”

“And for share repurchase, we are expecting at least $3 billion, with the flexibility to go higher depending on stock price.”

“Note that our cash tax rate is expected to run approximately 2 points lower than this rate.”

“We expect an adjusted effective tax rate in the mid-20s.”

“In terms of interest expense, we expect approximately $350 million.”

“In terms of other key assumptions, for inflation, we expect a double-digit increase for 2025 versus 2024, driven almost entirely by cocoa as well as some labor costs.”

“Based on our view of earnings, we are planning for free cash flow of $3 billion plus.”

“We expect an adjusted EPS decline this year, given the unprecedented levels of cocoa cost in our chocolate canal. This decline is expected to be approximately 10% versus the base of $3.36 in 2024, that excludes JDE Peet's from the equity income.”

“And so, we believe that in either case, whether cocoa comes down or stays high, we have a path to delivering EPS growth into 2026.”

“And again, the clear goal for us is to end 2025 in a place where we are well positioned to deliver EPS growth in 2026.”

“If cocoa stays high, we would expect to gradually price more. If cocoa starts to come down, then we would expect earnings delivery to be higher. Regardless, we expect EPS growth in 2026.”

“As far as pricing is concerned, at this point in time we are done and so there is no sequential additional pricing coming into effect in Q4.”

“In Q4, this dynamic will reverse with meaningful pressure to profit as Cocoa catches up to market levels.”

“Look, in the end, if you do the implied growth rate for Q4 in light of us the affirming guidance on top line, which is as we said at the high end of the 3 to 5 algo, you should get to a Q4 that is a little bit higher than what Q3 has been.”

“I think you're going to see strong performance in North America. You're going to see strong performance in AMEA, which by the way we start lapping the boycotts that started last year in Q4. And then I think in Europe, you are going to see strong results as well.”

“So a long way to say cocoa cost should be clear by the end of this year beginning of Q1 and prices particularly in Europe will be much clearer towards the end of Q1 beginning of Q2.”

“I expect to have clarity on cocoa prices, call it, in the next month or couple of months.”

“We see pretty strong top line for next year.”

“Please also consider as we talk about 2025 that cocoa costs are lower in the second half versus half one.”

“Bear in mind that in 2025, pricing will not flow through as of day one. And so it will take a little bit of time for profit to improve and quite frankly profit improvement is more towards the second half of the year.”

“We have to price next year, but we are very conscious of making sure that we protect key price points and certain thresholds.”

“And I think the feeling that the top line will continue to be robust into next year is certainly there, because we feel that overall the business is quite healthy and we have very good activities planned for next year.”

“There will be a modest dilution in Q4 with a full year $0.08 headwind.”

“Our plans around pricing, RGM and cost management are expected to be significant and help provide room for reinvestment.”

“We expect peak cocoa pricing to be reflected in the first half of 2025 while chocolate margins should improve sequentially versus Q4 2024.”

“which is now estimated at $250 million for the year.”

“While next year cocoa will be significantly higher than the average of 2024, it is projected to be lower than Q4 2024.”

“We continue to expect high single-digit growth off a 2023 base that includes developed market gum.”

“We continue to expect on algo delivery for revenue, earnings per share, growth and cash flow.”

“We have repurchased $1.2 billion in stock year-to-date and will continue to be opportunistic for the remainder of the year and into 2025.”

“We expect this dynamic to persist for the foreseeable future.”

“The US still has work to do, but we have seen shareholding in the last three months and believe new price packs in Q4 should help drive further improvements.”

“We expect total share metric to improve moving forward as Europe gained share in Q3 following customer disruption in F1.”

“We expect the majority of our portfolio to grow both top and bottom line, consistent with our algorithm, and we believe we are taking the right steps to position the chocolate business for attractive and long-term sustainable growth.”

“But as we said a few times, we believe cocoa in 2026 is going to normalize and we would have a meaningful rebound of our chocolate profit to allow for us to get back on track with our algorithm.”

“We have seen as of late following the price increases we put in place in Europe, for instance, that elasticities have been fairly benign. So if we realize that volume is there, we might push price a little bit more forward to in an attempt to offset the cocoa impact that we will have inevitably next year.”

“we do anticipate some upticks in elasticity in certain markets, and we might need to adapt to more aggressive RGM and promotions.”

“What I will tell you is we are going to have a year that is ahead in terms of gross profit dollar growth delivery compared to our usual algorithm.”

“So overall, I would say that I would be surprised if the second half is not a good half for Europe.”

“I think all in all we have at this point, line of sight to the upper end of our revenue guidance for the year.”

“The number one driver that will impact the most is Europe that will have to return to volume growth. With disruption behind us, we feel quite good about achieving that.”

“All that together gives us the confidence that we will see a good second half in North America.”

“This includes the upper end of our 3% to 5% range for organic net revenue, which considers the impact of completing price negotiations in Europe and plans to drive improvement enough to result in North America.”

“We are holding our EPS call for the year despite these gains, since Cocoa will become a more material headwind in the second half.”

“Nevertheless, the strong half-one results also reflect our favorable cocoa pipeline compared to current market prices, which will clearly reverse and will be a meaningful headwind in the second half.”

“I think the expectation it is still around having a sort of flattish volume mix for the year.”

“And in the second half I'm expecting to see a good recuperation in Mexico.”

“We think there will be a gradual recovery in H2. The long-term opportunity for growth remains quite significant.”

“There was a lower flow because of the elections of public subsidies to the households that we think will start to normalize in H2.”

“I don't expect a material upside in terms of P&L impact due to lower A&C in the second part of the year.”

“I think we have clearly an expectation that these improve volume mix in the second half and improve revenue in the second half.”

“So the answer is certainly we can strive for more than $4 billion on an ongoing basis.”

“We will continue to invest in working media in line with the first part of the year, but we will also start optimizing as we discussed a few times the non-working media which is still an opportunity in this outlook.”

“There might be more selective price that we will be doing in light of height and cocoa, but no major deviations are expected on this front.”

“Most of our key assumptions remain consistent with what we shared with you in our last call, with the exception of interest expenses, which is now estimated at $275 million for the full year.”

“Our outlook for ‘24 remains unchanged. We continue to expect on-algo delivery for revenue, earnings per share and cash flow.”

“We have repurchased $1.1 billion in stock through half one and will remain opportunistic for the remainder of the year.”

“We will manufacture, market, distribute and sell the Lotus Biscoff cookie brand in India starting in the second half of 2025.”

“We remain on track to deliver 90% of revenue through our core categories of chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks by 2030.”

“It is a program that will be completed over a four-year time frame.”

“And if that is a success in Europe, we will obviously want to extend that around the world into our other chocolate brands.”

“Well, thank you for assisting in the call. I will conclude with saying that we had a solid first quarter, and we feel confident for the rest of the year that we will have an on-algorithm year.”

“I feel confident about the plans that the U.S. is putting in place. I think we are moving a little bit the price point of Chips Ahoy!, and that would allow us to recuperate share and volume.”

“So you're going to see some compression, particularly in Q4. So don't expect like 2.5 points of gross profit expansion from now to the end of the year for sure.”

“Those are the things that I would see that make me believe that the second half of the year will look better for us in North America.”

“So I'm not sure you will continue seeing the type of gross profit dollar expansion and gross margin that you saw in Q1 into the second half because the cocoa prices will hit a little bit harder particularly in Q4.”

“Now I don't want to give you the false impression that we are not going to have inflation in cocoa in '25 because reality is, in 2024, we are covered at materially better prices than current market.”

“And should the correction happen, which we expect towards the end of Q3, most likely, we will be ready to take advantage of lower prices.”

“But we do believe that emerging markets this year will be giving us sustainable growth. We will get back to volume growth.”

“So we're expecting, once we get through these short-term issues, that we will see some strong growth in Mexico.”

“But we should see, particularly on volume, some sequential improvement as we go through the year, as we land some of the price negotiations, particularly in Europe.”

“I mentioned that Ricolino is already recovering. So we should see good growth in Latin America going forward.”

“The acquisitions, we started a little bit softer than expected, particularly in CLIF, and I called out some temporary issues in Ricolino, but you should see a sequential improvement throughout the year.”

“I would have a special call-out here because cocoa costs will escalate throughout the year, particularly in the second half.”

“But you should expect categories to continue their trends into Q2 and the latter part of the year.”

“Share repurchase is expected to be $2 billion with an opportunistic approach.”

“In terms of tax rate, we continue to expect an adjusted effective tax rate in the mid-20s.”

“We are expecting $0.10 of EPS headwinds related to ForEx impact.”

“Although the vast majority of pricing has been landed in Europe, we continue to expect some level of customer disruption in Q2 associated with our annual price negotiation process.”

“We continue to expect a high single-digit inflation in '24.”

“This includes the upper end of our 3% to 5% range for organic net revenue growth, which continues to factor in ongoing customer disruption in Europe and softer growth in parts of the U.S.”

“Our outlook for 2024 remains unchanged. We continue to expect on-algo delivery for revenue, earnings per share and cash flow.”

“We will continue to remain opportunistic for the remainder of the year as it relates to share buybacks.”

“So we expect the underlying growth rate in Lat Am to appear understated for this year.”

“We believe this dynamic will begin to moderate in the second quarter and the remainder of the year.”

“We have now landed the vast majority of pricing in Europe. One customer alliance is still ongoing, which will cause some additional disruption in Q2, but the business remains in line with our expectations.”

“We expect both issues to subside throughout the year, and specifically Ricolino is almost back on track.”

“I wouldn't say that it's going to be simple, but there will be an understanding that if cocoa prices remain relatively high, that there will need to be more price increases that need to be implemented.”

“We are well-positioned to address these challenges and we remain confident that we can deliver an on-algorithm year.”

“So we're expecting a good volume mix performance right away in Q1 of next year.”

“We're going to have a slight uptick in CapEx, particularly as we need to invest in places like India.”

“On a global basis, we're probably talking about 2% of our extra growth coming from this.”

“Yes, your first assumption is correct in the sense that we are trying to offset the dollar impact of the inflation that we're seeing on our input costs, and we're not pricing for percentage margin, but offsetting that dollar impact, which yes, we believe is a reasonable position.”

“It will go down over the course of '24 as we have a clear playbook and by the way, we incent Argentina, not like all the other business units, but we incent Argentina on net monetary position and free cash flow generation.”

“We will have to cap most likely growth for Argentina going forward into 2024.”

“Europe is going to be more impacted in relative terms versus the impact that we have already in the base in '23 in Q2, and most likely volume mix, excluding the customer disruption is going to be a nice number and positive.”

“I think as you look at the Q1 revenue pacing, we are going to have a revenue maybe number that is a little bit below the full year algo.”

“I think you will see momentum in our share, particularly in the first half, and that is related to the unprecedented A&C investment we put forward.”

“We expect to eliminate nearly all of these $0.11 impact by removing stranded costs.”

“Share repurchase expectations are around $2 billion.”

“In terms of taxes, we expect an ETR in the mid-20s.”

“In terms of inflation, we expect a high single digit increase for '24.”

“We remain on track to deliver 90% of our revenue through these core categories.”

“I believe total volume mix might be tilted to slightly negative because of the disruption, but I can't go any further than that.”

“This process is happening earlier in some cases than last year, so intact might be more pronounced in Q1 for top and margin lines.”

“Our expectation is that going forward, Give & Go will continue to see big growth because clients like Target or Walmart are moving from made in-stores towards freeze and thaw, which is what Give & Go is offering there.”

“So far, everything is working out exactly as planned. And so we have high hopes that you will see the significant benefit from that next year.”

“So the effect will start to take place from now going forward for the next 18 months, I would say, that we get the benefits to sort of work out for us.”

“But we will be pricing at replacement cost into '24.”

“So I would say we are not done, I believe, in terms of inflation at this point in time.”

“I think as you go into next year, or as we go into next year, the inflation that you're going to see is higher than mid-single-digit. I think it is going to be towards the higher end of 5% to 10% at this point in time.”

“A good portion as we went through the plans with the majority of the business units, a good portion of growth in both in developed and emerging markets will be coming through distribution expansion.”

“Pricing contribution will be clearly less important than this year, but we still see pricing contributing more than an average year, particularly as we need to price for cocoa, sugar and other commodities.”

“On EPS, the expected growth of around about 16% for the year implies a moderate increase in constant currency in Q4.”

“So our revised top line estimate of 14% to 15% implies a revenue growth for Q4, which is around about 7% to 10% which, considering we are lapping a 15.5% top line growth last year, makes really the two-year stack comparable to year-to-date numbers.”

“We think that the expansion of volume in emerging markets is going to continue.”

“We expect our snack bar business to exceed $1.2 billion net revenue this year.”

“However, we expect to consider buybacks for the remainder of the year and into next, given the current stock price versus our view of intrinsic value and long-term potential of our company.”

“We do not expect any material EPS dilution as we will remove majority of stranded costs in '24.”

“With respect to currency, we now expect $0.15 of EPS headwinds related to ForEx impact for the year versus $0.11 in our prior outlook, of which $0.12 have been materialized already in the year-to-date.”

“We also expect interest expenses of approximately $325 million for the year.”

“I believe that you will see some very good results coming from China in the second half of the year.”

“And you're going to see us delivering the cash flow despite the $400 million headwind related to the coffee KDP sales.”

“And I think it is needed, and we're going to do it most likely.”

“So we're not giving you the number, it's going to be a nice solid volume growth for the second half.”

“We are confident that these ongoing investments will deliver sustainable improvements in growth, efficiency, and ultimately margin.”

“That is going to continue, that speed at which we continue to grow.”

“And I'm not going to give an exact number, but we would expect that our cake and pastry business in the coming year should double or triple and lift us up to close to a 10% market share.”

“We plan to be at like 2.5 times debt, which is quite good.”

“Now that pricing is 100% secured, we expect volume and revenue growth as well as margin improvement for Europe.”

“And our margins will start to recover as the pricing is now fully implemented.”

“I think as a consequence of that, you will see our share improve.”

“So what you could expect for H2 in Europe is that our volumes will grow.”

“We will see some inflationary costs continuing in cocoa and sugar going into 2024.”

“We have very good volume mix growth in three out of four regions... but we foresee for the second half that we will see solid volume growth in Europe.”

“We now expect $0.11 of EPS of headwinds related to ForEx impact for the year versus $0.09 in our prior outlook.”

“In terms of key assumptions we continue to expect a double-digit inflation increase for '23, driven by elevated cost in packaging ingredients, labor and lapping favorable commodity hedges in 2022.”

“Note, our free cash flow outlook remains unchanged at $3.3 billion, given $400 million in cash taxes related to the sell-down and exit of our KDP position.”

“Ricolino remains on track in terms of integration, and we expect to begin capturing more benefits towards the end of the year.”

“Importantly, pricing has now been lending and we expect that this will lead to a better second half volume and margin performance.”

“Now that pricing is implemented, we expect improvements in Europe too.”

“For both we expect good volume momentum as we move forward in the year now that negotiations in Europe are behind us.”

“I'm not going to tell you that we are going to run the company forever at this level of leverage. But reality is, absent M&A I think this is most likely a little bit of a new norm.”

“Bear in mind that we want to start 2024 strong. And so if there is upside in terms of profitability and EPS, we might decide to reinvest selectively some of the upside to get really a fast start into 2024, too.”

“Given stabilization of the supply chain, we feel confident that share will continue to improve during the year in the U.S.”

“So I'm confident that the margins will look quite close to the U.S. business going forward.”

“In Mexico, we now with the acquisition of Ricolino have significantly increased our distribution power. So there we will see the distribution of Mondelez brands increasing significantly in the coming months.”

“Our outlook for '23 remains optimistic, and we have to invest in capacity increases, which we are doing.”

“We are still planning for some disruption in Q2, which has been factored into our revised outlook as the remaining 20% of our customer base is not done yet.”

“I don't think you're going to see a consistently at 20% A&C increase, but at this point in time, where we are moving price points, where we are trying to retain and increase our consumer pools, it is important that we use these as an important accelerator of growth for years to come.”

“But as we get through those price increases, growth will come down.”

“we expect that positive trends for North-America will continue.”

“Europe is still impacted by the fact that there is 20% of pricing to go. And as we implement that the situation should sequentially improve.”

“I can tell you that sequentially the gross margin percentage albeit, I don't like talking about it, should improve throughout the year.”

“I said it a few times, we continued to be obsessed with dollar growth in cash and there might be some pressure in percentage terms, particularly in the next couple of quarters, but sequentially we will be much better throughout the year and we plan to end, clearly on the gross margin percentage positivity.”

“We still see double-digit inflation rate in 2023, with obviously energy sugar ingredient posing most of the pressure.”

“And I think with the post-COVID period now in China, we see the confidence of the consumer going up and we're expecting a strong year in China also.”

“In terms of key assumptions, inflation is still expected to increase double-digit for 2023, driven by elevated cost in packaging energy ingredients and labor while lapping favorable hedges in 2022.”

“Having said that, we might have some more disruption for the remaining pricing, which will potentially affect Q2.”

“We continue to increase our market share. I see no reason why that would not continue next year also.”

“And I think also you will be positively surprised by share throughout the year.”

“I think it's more important to say that the combination of both platforms between our existing business and Ricolino will step change materially the profitability of Mexico.”

“So I think the P&L is going to shape up quite well.”

“As long as volume continues to be this strong, we are not planning to increase our promotional pressure at all.”

“As we explained before, we are certainly not seeing for 2023, our costs coming down. We still are seeing double-digit inflation in our cost.”

“And we expect some of the disruption happening in March and potentially spinning over into Q2.”

“I'm expecting that the consumer gets used to this new setup of the stores that the volume growth will come back.”

“Clearly, that is a reversal in Q1.”

“And so apart from the pricing, all the other indicators for China are pretty positive for us. Not quite sure if that really immediately translates in acceleration, but high-single digits to low double-digit is doable for China for next year.”

“The gum business, we expect to come back and we would continue on momentum with the biscuit growth that we've seen.”

“But overall, I would expect China to continue with a high single-digit to double-digit growth for next year.”

“You are going to see some subpar numbers in terms of profit for Europe, most likely in Q1 and Q2 as a result of pricing not fully implemented yet and customer negotiations. But then by Q3 and Q4, there will be a recovery of margins and profitability in Europe.”

“As you dissect the business a little bit more, I believe you're going to see good volume growth in emerging markets, particularly in countries like China, India, Brazil and so on and so forth.”

“You will see some pressure, particularly in the first part of the year, a result of a couple of things.”

“The other one, I think is important to mention is that we will have double-digit cost inflation. There's a lot of talk about diminishing inflation. We don't see that at the moment, and that is driven largely by energy, ingredients and labor.”

“Our margins, of course, are impacted by elevated inflation. It's something that it has a denominated effect as we price against that, but we do expect that over time, margins will come back.”

“In this outlook, we also expect an adjusted effective tax rate in the low to mid-20s based on what we know today and a share repurchase of around $2 billion.”

“In terms of phasing, we expect Q1 to be lower from a margin rate perspective due to lower volumes in Europe associated with the expected customer disruptions and Chinese New Year phasing.”

“We are planning for a net increase in total pension cost of around $25 million as above the line service cost will be lower and below the line element will be worse due to the rising interest rate.”

“In terms of interest expenses, we expect an incremental $90 million for the line associated with the financing of recent acquisitions that we plan to repay later in the year with the developed gum divestiture proceed.”

“As far as assumptions grow, we are planning for another year of double-digit inflation with dollars higher than in 2022.”

“For the current year, we expect to deliver on or in excess of our long-term algorithm for all variables.”

“Disruption in Europe might also continue into Q2.”

“We have good confidence that this price increase will go through. And then we should be okay unless something happens in our cost picture.”

“And we -- for instance, in Mexico, we expect to see some big effects from Ricolino where we are tripling our route to market.”

“On top, we will increase our A&C investment in the fourth quarter in the U.S.”

“Most of our biscuits brands are already in positive share territory. In September, our biscuit share was up, as I said, and we expect that share growth to accelerate in Q4 because the on-shelf availability recovery is going quite well now.”

“As we said in the last month, we've already seen market share gains. We expect that to continue and we expect a good tailwind market share-wise into 2023.”

“I think you're still going to see a little bit of margin pressure in Q4. But importantly, you're going to see strong dollar growth, and you're going to see that flowing partly to the bottom line.”

“Going forward, particularly since we're seeing an acceleration in our top line, particularly since we're seeing our volume working for us, I would say we don't really anticipate that we're going to change that formula.”

“I think in general, the way we think at this point about 2023, it is that consumer demand fundamentals are still strong, and we believe we are in a good place in terms of revenue and demand for next year.”

“And I think as I said before, we will see some volatility in Q1 in Europe as we implement pricing.”

“And then from a cost perspective, we've seen some commodities showing signs of pulling back but we still expect significant inflation in '23 and hence, the pricing rounds we have to go through.”

“In our forecast, we are foreseeing higher elasticity effects because we believe that eventually, there will be a bigger effect, but so far, we're not quite seeing that.”

“In the middle of all that, as I already said, our categories, we expect to continue a strong buy.”

“At current ForEx levels and outlook, EPS in reported dollars would be positive year-on-year, which shows the resilience of our business.”

“Our EPS outlook also now factors in $0.26 of headwinds related to ForEx impact.”

“The implied Q4 growth is 7%-plus, but importantly, there is a plus in there. So we might have more than 7%, which is something that obviously we might have.”