Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

“With that, we continue to innovate. And pricing -- selective pricing with innovation where the consumer tells us their interest is high, their willingness to pay for better performance is there will be the other part of the offset that we're driving.”

“For perspective, the annual cost impact of Brent crude at around $100 per barrel is roughly $1.3 billion before tax or $1 billion after tax versus a pre-conflict oil price in the mid-60s.”

“Significant additional currency weakness, commodity or other cost increases, further geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within the guidance range.”

“We expect to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase approximately $5 billion of common stock, combined a plan to return roughly $15 billion of cash to shareowners at fiscal '26.”

“This includes an increase in capital spending as we add capacity in several categories and as we incur the cash costs from the restructuring work.”

“We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity in the range of 85% to 90% for the year.”

“We continue to expect modestly higher interest expense versus last fiscal year and a core effective tax rate in the range of 20% to 21% for fiscal '26 combined a $250 million after-tax headwind to earnings growth.”

“Our fiscal '26 outlook continues to call for approximately $500 million before tax and higher costs from tariffs.”

“Given all the above, we now expect full year EPS results to be towards the lower end of the guidance range.”

“Almost all of these increased costs will be in the fourth -- fiscal fourth quarter.”

“We now expect a headwind of approximately $150 million after tax for the fiscal from a combination of commodity-linked cost inflation, feedstock exposures and logistics disruptions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East.”

“This guidance includes a foreign exchange tailwind of approximately $200 million after tax, unchanged from our prior outlook.”

“Our bottom line guidance is for core EPS growth in line to 4% versus prior year. This equates to a range of $6.83 to $7.09 per share.”

“We expect this to result in fourth quarter organic sales somewhat lower than third quarter.”

“We continue to expect organic sales growth of in line to 4%.”

“This gives us confidence that we can continue that level of productivity.”

“So we're building those plans, and I'm confident it will leave us in a reasonable place from an earnings growth standpoint, while not jeopardizing the investment in sustained organic sales growth and share growth”

“Will it be sufficient to offset the full $1 billion after tax, likely not.”

“Regarding supply impact, we are hopeful the full flow of materials where we resume in the coming weeks.”

“Family Care, for example, will see strong growth in January, even turning into share growth now.”

“We are confident the interventions and investments we are making now will improve our near-term performance.”

“We anticipated this would be the softest quarter of the fiscal year and we remain confident in stronger growth in the back half.”

“You're right. Our promotion volume is increasing and probably will increase in the second half, as we execute the innovation part of creating trial for those innovations is to deliver promotion visibility.”

“From a share perspective, it certainly is our objective to leave the year with share growth. Both in The US and in the rest of the world.”

“Our growth trajectory that I just highlighted, the 2% value growth in The US, which is the assumption for half two, largely assumes that the volume component remains slow.”

“On the second half, like other business, we expect modest acceleration in grooming.”

“The only thing I'll leave you with is I would not expect any significant inventory built. In the second half.”

“Our base expectation is 2% category growth in the back half.”

“And we expect similar dynamics to happen across Baby and Fem.”

“Our objective clearly is to leave the year with share growth in The U. S.”

“Combined a plan to return roughly $15 billion of cash to shareholders in fiscal 'twenty-six,”

“Expect to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase approximately $5 billion in common stock.”

“We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity in the range of 85% to 90% for the year, and this includes an increase in capital spending as we add capacity in several categories that we incur the cash costs from the restructuring work.”

“And a core effective tax rate in the range of 20% to 21%, for fiscal 'twenty-six, combined a $250 million after-tax headwind to earnings growth.”

“Below the operating line, we continue to expect modestly higher interest expense versus last fiscal year.”

“Our fiscal 'twenty-six outlook continues to expect approximately $500 million before tax and higher costs from tariffs.”

“And a foreign exchange tailwind of approximately $200 million after tax, Taken together, no change versus prior guidance.”

“Our bottom line outlook is for core EPS growth of in line to plus 4% versus prior year. This equates to a range of €6.83 to $7.09 per share.”

“As a reminder, this guidance includes 30 to 50 basis points of headwind from product and market exits, that are part of our restructuring work.”

“We're seeing progress in most regions, and we expect stronger growth in The U. S. As interventions take hold.”

“For fiscal 'twenty-six, we continue to expect organic sales growth of in line to plus 4%.”

“The growth rates embedded in our near-term guidance should return us to the lower half of our long-term growth algorithm as we exit fiscal twenty-six.”

“We expect stronger results in the second half which enables us to maintain fiscal year 2026 guidance ranges across organic sales core EPS and adjusted free cash flow productivity.”

“But we don't think it requires another wave of significant restructuring beyond what we typically have as part of our core earnings.”

“From there on out, if this works the way we want to, it will basically allow us to grow without incremental investments in organization or people.”

“we are confident that the share pattern will follow the same playbook as we've seen.”

“we expect to exit the U.S. with neutral to share growth by continuing to give the consumers better value propositions”

“quarter 2 is going to be lower than quarter 1 and half 2 is going to be higher than half 1.”

“we continue to expect some volatility here. We continue to expect strong competitive activity. But if I had to summarize, I think we are well positioned to continue to build the business in China.”

“the plans are clearly in place, I think, to exit the year with share growth in the U.S.”

“Significant additional currency weakness, commodity or other cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within the guidance ranges.”

“This includes an increase in capital spending as we add capacity in several categories, and as we incur the cash cost from the restructuring work.”

“We expect to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase approximately $5 billion in common stock, combined a plan to return roughly $15 billion of cash to shareowners in fiscal '26.”

“We are forecasting adjusted free cash flow productivity in the range of 85% to 90% for the year.”

“Below the operating line, we continue to expect modestly higher interest expense versus last fiscal year and a core effective tax rate in the range of 20% to 21% for fiscal '26 combined a $250 million after-tax headwind to earnings growth.”

“Our fiscal '26 outlook now includes approximately $500 million before tax and higher costs from tariffs.”

“While we delivered strong EPS growth in quarter 1, we expect modest earnings growth over the balance of the year as investments in innovation and competitiveness increase, particularly in the U.S. and in Europe.”

“On the bottom line, core EPS growth, in line to plus 4%, which equates to a range of $6.83 to $7.09 per share or $6.96, up 2% in the center of the range.”

“these dynamics will likely result in quarter 2 this year being the softest growth quarter for the year with stronger growth in the back half.”

“Organic sales growth of in line to plus 4%.”

“In test market stores, evo sales have been highly incremental to category growth and retailer demand has been well above initial expectations. We're in the process of adding manufacturing capacity to prepare for an eventual national launch.”

“This marks 40 consecutive quarters of organic sales growth and keeps us on track for the tenth consecutive fiscal year of core EPS growth.”

“That's job 1, 2 and 3, drive more users in the category, drive more usage and drive value per use. That's how we get back to 3%.”

“We expect to reduce up to 7,000 nonmanufacturing roles or up to 15% of our current nonmanufacturing workforce over this fiscal year and fiscal '27.”

“We have an objective for growth savings in cost of goods sold of up to $1.5 billion before tax, enabled by platform programs with global application across categories with Supply Chain 3.0.”

“If you average out the pricing across the entire portfolio, we're looking at about 2.5%, broadly in line with where inflation is trending, so also not too disruptive.”

“At aggregate level, I expect both to perform similarly in terms of top line growth and bottom line growth in the year.”

“And the savings as well are coming. Obviously, the restructuring savings are coming in the second half of the year.”

“It is going to be an upward trajectory on EPS, as you can appreciate.”

“Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruption, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within these guidance ranges.”

“Combined, a plan to return roughly $15 billion of cash to shareowners in fiscal '26.”

“We expect to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase approximately $5 billion in common stock.”

“This includes an increase in capital spending as we add capacity in several categories and as we incur the cash costs from the restructuring work.”

“We are forecasting adjusted free cash flow productivity in the range of 85% to 90% for the year.”

“Combined, roughly a $250 million after-tax headwind to earnings growth.”

“Below the operating line, we expect modestly higher interest expense versus last fiscal year and a core effective tax rate in the range of 20% to 21% for fiscal '26.”

“At these rates, tariffs alone are a 5-point headwind to core EPS growth in fiscal '26.”

“On the bottom line, we are guiding for core EPS growth in line to plus 4% versus fiscal year '25, core EPS of $6.83. This guidance equates to a range of $6.83 to $7.09 per share, $6.96 or up 2% at the center of the range.”

“Taken together, our guidance range for organic sales growth is in line to up 4% versus prior year.”

“Our objective is to grow organic sales modestly ahead of the underlying growth of these markets.”

“We expect to reduce up to 7,000 nonmanufacturing roles or roughly 15% of our current nonmanufacturing workforce over the next 2 years.”

“So I would not view, and that's what we're telling our organization, don't assume you're getting tailwind from decreased tariffs because if the tariffs come down, most likely the pricing will not sustain in the market. So I would see those 2 as moving in parallel.”

“But if you look outside of Turkey, again, growth rates are stabilizing, and I feel good about our ability to continue to drive growth at average portfolio rates or above from Europe enterprise markets.”

“the one thing that is very clear to us is we continue to be committed to fully support the innovation across the fourth quarter.”

“I continue to see North America contributing to high single-digit growth rates to our portfolio.”

“But we also don't assume that that inventory that we lost in Q3 will come back because we believe it's an outcome of the consumer shifting into channels that are more inventory efficient.”

“I don't view us shifting the mix between advertising and trade promotion.”

“I think the tariff impacts that are visible to us right now at a growth level are in the range of $1 to $1.5 billion.”

“Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruption, major supply chain disruptions, store closures, or tariff changes are not anticipated within the guidance range.”

“This outlook assumes a range of $100 to $160 million in BT tariff impacts in the fourth quarter, or $0.03 to $0.05 per share.”

“we have plans to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 to $7 billion in common stock. Combined, returning $16 to $17 billion of cash to shareholders this fiscal year.”

“We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% for the year”

“We are now forecasting only modest headwinds from net interest income and expense, and an effective tax rate roughly in line with the prior year.”

“We continue to expect lower non-operating income benefits for the fiscal year.”

“We are now estimating a headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal 2025.”

“Our outlook for commodity costs remains unchanged, forecasting a commodity cost headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal 2025.”

“So the one piece I would want you to take away is assume category growth rates return to normal levels. And we will focus really on a glide path over two to three years to deliver mid-low to mid-singles in terms of top line, and mid to high singles in terms of EPS growth.”

“All of that gives me confidence that in the second half, we'll see acceleration.”

“So related to guidance, what I'd tell you is what I mentioned in the prepared remarks, right? At the moment, when we -- when you look at foreign exchange rates, you look at what we've delivered in the front half of the year, we would say we have good visibility and confidence to the lower-end of the guidance range, both on organic sales growth and on core EPS.”

“So we're confident in our $1.5 billion productivity guidance on cost-of-goods-sold and the $2 billion guidance overall, including SG&A and pricing levers.”

“We expect both of those, the pricing dynamic with innovation and the mix dynamic to continue.”

“So we will continue to invest where it makes sense, albeit probably at a slower pace than what we've seen in the last years.”

“I think we've appropriately protected for that in the guidance, but it's pantry inventory loading and we expect the majority of that will sustain through the next quarter.”

“So my expectation would be an acceleration in Latin-America, partially driven by the base becoming a little bit easier, but also given strong plans across those core markets.”

“Most of our materials and commodities will impact the first half of next fiscal year. So we feel relatively good about that end-of-the equation because it provides stability for the second half, where more of the volatility is again in foreign-exchange rate and that doesn't mean we don't look at our input costs carefully because as we said, we need to get ready to deal with it in the first half of next fiscal year.”

“Because of variance holding and because of our contract structures, any major deviation in terms of oil prices outside of maybe transportation will impact half one of next fiscal year.”

“Andre mentioned, we have very strong second half innovation of programs across markets. And so, that should enable us to continue to put some upward pressure on the top line.”

“The impact of foreign-exchange rate will mostly hit in the second half.”

“Our base case, Dara, to summarize, continued strong performance around 4%, in the 85% of the business continued recovery on the 15%.”

“We expect some increased momentum across Europe and Latin America, specifically as comps ease versus the base period.”

“And while recent consumer trends and FX rates make the balance of the year more challenging, we continue to expect stronger results in the second half.”

“We expect adjusted free-cash flow productivity of 90% for the year, and we have plans to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 billion, $7 billion in common stock combined returning $16 billion to $17 billion of cash to shareowners for the fiscal year.”

“With projected softer market growth and stronger foreign-exchange headwinds, we currently have good visibility towards the lower-end of the top and bottom-line guidance ranges.”

“Combined, these additional headwinds amount to $0.10 to $0.12 to core EPS on-top of the commodities and FX headwinds I mentioned.”

“We continue to expect lower non-operating income benefits this fiscal year and a somewhat higher tax-rate versus the prior year.”

“Our outlook for commodity costs remains consistent with our most recent guidance, expecting a commodity cost headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal 2025.”

“On the bottom-line, our core EPS guidance range for fiscal 2025 remains at growth of 5% to 7% versus fiscal 2024 core EPS of $6.59.”

“On the top-line, we are maintaining our organic sales growth guidance in the range of 3% to 5%.”

“We hope this is going to result in a more neutral organic sales growth contribution of China in the back-half, but we also are fully aware that this could go either way.”

“AMA, Asia, Middle-East, Africa, look, the main driver here will be stabilization in the Middle-East. We hope that that progress is sustaining and we can go from there, but I think it will remain a more difficult environment for us through the second half.”

“That doesn't mean that we don't have a shot at delivering the middle of the range. And as I said, if we continue to make-good progress in China, if we continue to see some easing of the tensions in the Middle-East and therefore business picks up, if Europe and North-America continue to deliver, we have a good shot at the top-line around the midpoint of the range and corresponding EPS.”

“Conversely, if we saw weakening across some of the core markets of North America and Europe, all we saw China returning to more negative territory, that would move us to the lower end or slightly below the current organic sales growth guidance.”

“But we are confident that even with those headwinds and the strength of the core of the business, we will be able to deliver within guidance range on all metrics.”

“Everything can change. There's no guarantee. But with everything that we can see, we feel confident that that component of 85% of the sales is holding or strengthening as we go through the year.”

“Look, we're still looking at a $200 million AT headwind for the year.”

“But I think logically, we have to expect some level of progression going into quarter two, but it will be the overarching effect that I still want to call-out is the headwinds are still with us in quarter one and in quarter two.”

“I would expect sequential improvement simply because of the mass of annualization.”

“Our P&L variance holding policy plus contracts generally make for a six to nine months delay from actual commodity inflation to it flowing through our P&L. So that will be a help, I would probably model towards the latter half of the fiscal year.”

“I expect that level of productivity contribution to remain or accelerate as we get to our target of $1.5 billion of COGS [gross] (ph) savings throughout the year.”

“But I think the general assumption is that we will over the next couple of quarters start to annualize both SK-II and the major China market contraction and that will help towards the stabilization of the total.”

“Number one, we need to annualize and we need to annualize at the end of quarter two and quarter three. Number two, the 85% of the business needs to keep running at the pace that it's running at.”

“We have plans to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $7 billion in common stock, combined, returning $16 billion to $7 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year.”

“We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% for the year.”

“Combined, these are additional $0.10 to $0.12 headwind to core EPS.”

“We continue to expect lower non-operating income benefits this fiscal year and a somewhat higher tax rate versus prior year.”

“We are now guiding for a commodity cost headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal '25.”

“Our core EPS guidance range for fiscal '25 remains at plus 5% to 7% versus fiscal '24 of a core EPS base of $6.59. This guidance equates to a range of $6.91 to $7.05 per share.”

“We are maintaining our organic sales growth guidance in the range of 3% to 5%.”

“But overall, I think we’re well set up to deliver against the guidance metrics we just communicated.”

“I think that portfolio that we operate, I think can sustain mid single growth and value creation in China.”

“But I think the most mechanical driver is run rates are stable and stabilizing, therefore unless we see a further decline in the market, which is entirely possible, but if those run rates hold, that will drive annualization towards the back half of the year.”

“I think the China business coming from a double-digit growth trajectory through a significant dip, and we don’t expect it to go back to double digits, we expect it over time to go to maybe mid singles, so more in line with what we see in other developed markets.”

“I don’t expect our fiscal year numbers to be different than that, but they will look different obviously H1 versus H2 because of base period, but the general model is still the same as we executed over the last 19 years.”

“That innovation is now in the market, so again very significant acceleration expected given the innovation just launched in the market over the next few quarters.”

“So I expect also North America to continue to move in the right direction on fabric care, and we’re very encouraged with the innovation, both the innovation that just launched and the innovation that is in the pipeline.”

“We expect these headwinds to moderate or annualize over the coming periods.”

“Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions, or store closures are not anticipated within the guidance ranges.”

“On the top line, please keep in mind that the July to September period has the most difficult comp for the year, and many of the market-level challenges we’ve noted will not fully annualize or improve materially in our estimate until the second half of the year.”

“This includes an increase in capital spending as we add capacity in several categories.”

“Combined, foreign exchange and commodities are projected to be a headwind of $0.20 per share for fiscal ’25, or a 3 percentage point drag on core EPS growth.”

“The rest of the portfolio is actually stable. It won’t be that throughout the year, as you know - I mean, these things change quickly, so there’s a level of variability here, obviously, and we’re forecasting a spot rate as we always do.”

“We're very confident in that and fiscal year-to-date, as we mentioned in the script, we're right at that level.”

“The only thing I'd point to is we are planning on significant productivity to continue in the marketing spend area. So that in and of itself would be somewhere between $400 million and $500 million of productivity in the space.”

“The laundry recall, it was a very limited recall on a packaging defect on 1 SKU on Tight PODS...It's no impact or very limited impact actually on the quarter or the fiscal year.”

“And unless we see any major inventory reduction, I would expect us to continue to trend in that same direction.”

“As I think about the step up that we need to see in order to be within that 4% to 5% range, we assume that that inventory reduction is a one timer, and that's what we expect in the guidance range.”

“That means mathematically we expect quarter four to be in the 4% to 5% range.”

“On the volume side, look, I think the effects that we described that are holding us back in the current quarter, the inventory effect in the U.S. of 2 points, which is a point on a global basis, I don't expect that to hold. So I expect the U.S. to continue to grow in terms of volume beyond the 3% that we're seeing in the current quarter.”

“There will be some impact on the current fiscal year, but given flow through of contracts and various holding policies, I expect that to be limited. And we anticipated that within our updated guidance ranges. So no impact to the current fiscal year.”

“It probably takes a few more quarters before we turn back to growth, but we see the trend line improving.”

“We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%, and we expect to pay more than $9 billion in dividends to repurchase $5 billion to $6 billion in common stock, combined a plan to return $14 billion to $15 billion of cash to share owners for the year.”

“General inflation and higher wage and benefit costs are also earnings headwinds for the year.”

“We expect higher net interest expense of approximately $100 million after tax versus prior year.”

“We now expect foreign exchange to be a headwind of approximately $600 million after tax for the fiscal year.”

“We now estimate commodities will be a tailwind of around $900 million after tax in fiscal '24 based on current spot prices.”

“This outlook assumes continued normalization in underlying market growth rates that we've seen over the past few quarters.”

“We're maintaining our guidance range for organic sales growth of 4% to 5% for the fiscal year.”

“We expect these headwinds to moderate or annualize over the coming periods.”

“We have seen some month to month improvement in overall Greater China sales trends, though we expect it will be another quarter or two until we return to growth.”

“We did not reiterate the top end of the range, but we reiterated the range. And that means 5% is still possible. Is it probable? I don't know. Probably more 50-50 than it was before.”

“I expect some of the negative headwinds in China, the Middle East and SK-II hopefully will improve sequentially.”

“Obviously, if spot prices hold, you correctly stated, it will have an impact on next year.”

“What I'll leave you with, I don't expect any headwind from commodity in the second half. It continues to be a tailwind.”

“So that gives us confidence that the top line growth that we've been delivering should continue, just as Andre said, and that should provide the ability to continue to deliver decent levels of bottom-line growth as well.”

“We continue to see the upper range on organic sales and core EPS as likely outcome for fiscal '23 - '24.”

“But continue to expect tailwinds just less than you saw in half one.”

“On the top line, if you look at the first half, we are right in line with what we're projecting for the year, an average of 5%, and we obviously then expect about 5% for the back half.”

“Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions or major production stoppages are not anticipated within the guidance ranges.”

“We expect to pay more than $9 billion in dividends and to repurchase $5 billion to $6 billion in common stock, combined a plan to return $14 billion to $15 billion of cash to share owners this fiscal year.”

“We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%.”

“We now expect higher net interest expense of approximately $100 million after tax versus prior year.”

“This outlook is based on a forecast for continued significant devaluation of the Argentine Peso, which we expect to largely offset with appropriate price increases.”

“We continue to expect foreign exchange will be a headwind of approximately $1 billion after tax for the fiscal year.”

“We estimate commodities will be a tailwind of around $800 million after tax in fiscal '24 based on current spot prices.”

“Wage and benefit inflation continues throughout the supply chain and in our direct costs, and FX headwinds will increase versus the first half of the fiscal year.”

“As we highlighted last quarter, the second half of the fiscal year will see less pricing benefit as we annualize more prior year increases. We will also see less commodity cost benefit in the second half.”

“This guidance implies slower bottom-line growth in the second half.”

“We will continue to price for new innovations when warranted and to mitigate FX impacts.”

“For P&G, we expect the pricing contribution to topline growth to reduce by an additional 1 to 2 points in the back half of the year.”

“We're maintaining our guidance range for organic sales growth of 4% to 5% for the fiscal year.”

“We expect to see sequential improvement in the back half.”

“While we can't talk specifics of future pricing in any market, more stable foreign exchange and commodity costs will ideally reduce the need for additional large price increases.”

“We fully expect to return to that pattern.”

“I also expect that our gross margin expansion and our overall growth contribution availability will continue to enable us to drive strong innovation and drive strong support of those innovations.”

“But I want you to take away that the gross margin expansion in quarter one is very strong, but we have headwinds going into the balance of the year.”

“And the foreign exchange rate headwinds will accelerate over the coming quarters.”

“When we talked about the cadence of earnings, I think it's important to understand the drivers of the gross margin expansion we saw in quarter one. And we expect some normalization of gross margin.”

“We don't expect a significant change in that profile. And we believe we are well set up to grow even if the consumer feels a bit of -- more of a pinch here going into the fall or winter season.”

“We expect volumes will continue to grow. US strong. As we said, Europe, strong. Latin America and India are strong. So we continue to see us progressing on that trajectory.”

“We'll continue to price for foreign exchange.”

“And we then sequentially expect volumes to pick up and offset part of that but do expect a lower overall market growth rate for the balance of the year.”

“We would expect that to be around 2% -- 1% to 2% of pricing and maybe a point of mix impact.”

“FX headwinds will increase versus quarter one.”

“We should also see less commodity benefit as we move through the year.”

“As you consider the cadence of earnings for the year, keep in mind that the back half of the year will see less pricing benefit as we progressively annualize prior year increases.”

“We expect to pay more than $9 billion in dividends and to repurchase $5 billion to $6 billion in common stock, combined a plan to return $14 billion to $15 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year.”

“We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%.”

“On the bottom line, our outlook for fiscal ‘24 core earnings per share is 6% to 9% growth versus last fiscal year.”

“Guidance for organic sales is growth of 4% to 5% for the fiscal year.”

“In addition to these impacts, we are also facing higher inflation in wages and benefits, and we expect higher year-on-year net interest expense of approximately $200 million after tax.”

“Based on current spot prices, we estimate commodities will be a tailwind of around $800 million after tax in fiscal ‘24.”

“As line time becomes available, as we have more time with our suppliers, for example, as we start to implement supply chain 3.0, we’re very confident in our ability to create up to $1.5 billion of net savings within the supply chain.”

“On the cost saving side, we are very confident in our previous statements that we will return to pre-COVID levels across cost of goods, media savings, and general productivity on the overhead side, and I think you saw that play out in quarter four.”

“In terms of future outlook, we feel very good about the business recovering already in the second half, mainly from the mainly from the Braun strong base period, and I think the plan for current fiscal year are strong.”

“All of those things, I believe, are a good indicator of where we’re headed, and early signs within China, for example, are very strong, positive consumer reviews and initially positive share growth, so we’re headed in the right direction but probably not quite at the clip you saw in quarter four.”

“One, as we’ve talked before, it takes time for these effects to flow through the P&L, so generally expect them to be more back half weighted versus front half weighted.”

“We also have--we will benefit from capacity investments that we’re making currently.”

“Pricing isn’t going away in the absolute. It is linked to innovation and we have a very strong innovation pipeline, as Andre partially described.”

“Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions, more store closures are not anticipated within the guidance ranges.”

“This includes an increase in capital spending as we add capacity in several categories.”

“This leads to guidance for organic sales growth in the range of 4% to 5% for fiscal ’24.”

“While we see stabilization of volumes, I would expect that there still will be negative volume component to the growth in the near future.”

“So that will be a negative headwind to the top-line growth in quarter four.”

“Overall, we're expecting, as we always do, spot rates will hold on, that's what's based and underlying our planning for next year and our guidance for this year.”

“Again, given fuel prices and all other dynamics, I wouldn't expect any major change going forward, but we're at least stable.”

“We expect our freight and transportation and warehousing costs to be roughly in line with prior year.”

“That'll be remediated here fairly quickly.”

“As Andre said in his prepared remarks, we expect China to continue to contribute at a meaningful level over the middle- to long-term.”

“We would expect progress on the gross margin side.”

“But nevertheless, we're not immune to those increases, so they will continue to go up into next year.”

“So, the $125 million [BT] (ph) we've quoted for this year, I would expect the trend to continue to go up into next year.”

“So, to answer your question directly, I would not expect a disproportionate catch up, but I would expect a steady return to pre-COVID levels of net structure savings, both the cost and media.”

“And we continue to believe that we can generate between $400 million to $500 million a year from media, programmatic savings both in terms of scheduling and buying capabilities around the world.”

“We have talked about delivering about $1.5 billion of savings with those initiatives between automation and digital capabilities.”

“Significant additional currency weakness commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruption, major production stoppages or store closures are not anticipated within this guidance range.”

“We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%.”

“Significant headwinds from input costs and foreign exchange keep our current expectations toward the lower end of this range.”

“On the bottom-line, we're maintaining our outlook of core earnings per share growth in the range of in line to plus 4% versus prior year.”

“Freight costs have moderated throughout the year, and we now expect them to be roughly in line with prior year.”

“Based on current exchange rates, we now forecast a $1.3 billion after-tax impact to the fiscal year.”

“Based on current spot prices and latest contracts, we now estimate a $2.2 billion after-tax headwind in fiscal '23.”

“We continue to expect further recovery as consumer mobility increases over the coming quarters.”

“I wouldn't expect it to be a significant drag on the bottom line. In fact, the growth that we anticipate will more than outweigh the cost of investing in capacity, and that's the plan, obviously.”

“I wouldn't expect this to come back immediately. I wouldn't expect a significant further reduction in inventory.”

“On the volume side, I think the Russia effect will be with us for one more quarter before we annualize.”

“Most of the margin expansion will come from gross margin expansion as we ramp up productivity, pricing continues to flow through and that builds gross margin period-over-period.”

“I wouldn't expect a structural shift in SG&A spend.”

“So as the supply chain is stabilizing, I wouldn't expect immediate return of those days on hand. I think some of it will come back, but it will take a longer period of time.”

“So Bryan, I don't expect that there's a significant swing here quarter-to-quarter. I think this is the system normalizing itself.”

“I would say the operating environment continues to be difficult, and we expect it to be difficult in the second half.”

“It should not be a significant bottom line drag.”

“That's going to be our job here over the next few quarters, continue to drive household penetration to reinvigorate overall volume growth in the category.”

“That leads us to continue to be pointed towards the lower end of the core EPS range. But as you say, with more help coming, that probably is increasing our confidence to deliver that range or hopefully slightly better.”

“Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major production stoppages or store closures are not anticipated within these guidance ranges.”

“We expect to pay around $9 billion of dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $8 billion of common stock, combined a plan to return $15 billion to $17 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year.”

“We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%.”

“The significant headwinds from input costs and foreign exchange keep our current expectations towards the lower end of this range.”

“On the bottom line, we're maintaining our outlook of core earnings per share growth in the range of in line to plus 4% versus prior year.”

“Freight costs remain higher versus prior year, and we continue to expect the $200 million after-tax headwind in fiscal '23.”

“We continue to expect more volatility in costs, currencies and consumer dynamics as we move through the second half of the fiscal year.”

“I would expect that to be a one-timer with potentially some help coming in back over the next few quarters.”

“3% to 4%, still underlying our forecast. We want to grow slightly ahead of that, which is reflected in our guidance range.”

“We continue to believe that the majority of that growth will be price driven with a negative volume component, as you would expect given the inflationary pressure.”

“Yes, Kevin, we expect a slowdown from the growth rate we've seen over the past years, which was 5% to a more modest 3% to 4%. That is still the case.”

“Many of these price increases in the second round are being executed in September and October.”

“We expect to pay around $9 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $8 billion in common stock, combined a plan to return $15 billion to $17 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year.”

“We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%.”

“However, the steep increase in foreign exchange impact pushes our current expectations towards the lower end of the range.”

“On the bottom line, we are maintaining our outlook of core earnings per share growth in a range of in line plus 4% versus prior year.”

“We continue to expect organic sales growth in the range of 3% to 5%.”

“We will offset a portion of these cost headwinds with price increases and productivity savings.”

“Based on current spot prices at latest contracts, we now estimate a $2.4 billion after-tax headwind in fiscal 2023.”

“Now moving on to guidance, we fully expect more volatility in costs, currencies and consumer dynamics as we move through the fiscal year.”

“If we grow in line with our guidance range, that will provide a level of sales leverage similar to what we would typically and historically have expected.”

“Our promotion strategy remains the same... We are not planning to increase significantly.”

“On the foreign exchange rate, that is the fastest-increasing headwind, also a big headwind in quarter 4 that we had to overcome. The interest rate differentials keep widening versus the U.S. So we anticipate that headwind could further expand.”

“On the commodity side... our assumption going forward is at spot rates. So we assume stability within the commodity price environment versus current spot.”

“Though we see the elasticities be more favorable than historical norms to date, we continue our assumption that they return to historical elasticities going forward.”

“That allows us to increase productivity on media spend in the current fiscal year to the point where we believe we will use some of that productivity not to reinvest fully but to actually flow through and help offset inflation.”

“This includes a step-up in capital spending as we begin to add capacity in several categories.”

“Combined headwinds from these items are now estimated at $3.3 billion after tax, roughly equal to the challenge we faced in fiscal '22, a 23 percentage point headwind to EPS growth or roughly $1.33 per share as we start the year.”

“We estimate commodities, raw materials and packaging material costs to be a $2.1 billion after-tax headwind in fiscal 2023.”

“That same effect continues, and we expect that trade-up, hopefully, to continue in this fiscal.”

“Those investments will take hold over the next two years. But we expect to be in a better situation over the next, call it, three to six months, specifically in the US moving out of managed supply.”

“We have more and more categories coming off managed supply in the US over the next two months.”

“With the continued lockdown and the difficulties in the market, we would expect April to be flat to negative.”

“So, you should expect sequential progress. I won't give you a specific timeline.”

“We will continue to drive all three levers to recover the dollar impact of commodity cost increases, foreign exchange and T&W.”

“We continue to expect to pay $8 billion in dividends and now expect to repurchase approximately $10 billion of common stock, combined a plan to return $18 billion of cash to share owners this fiscal year.”

“We continue to expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 95% for the year.”

“Within this guidance, we expect an additional $0.04 per share of negative impact in the fourth quarter from higher costs and limited operations in Ukraine and Russia.”

“Pricing was a sequentially stronger contributor to top line growth in the third quarter and will continue to be a driver again in the fourth quarter as we get the full effect of increases taken over the past few months.”

“We now expect FX to be a $300 million after-tax headwind to earnings for the fiscal year.”

“We now expect freight and transportation costs to be a $400 million after-tax headwind in fiscal '22.”

“We now estimate a $2.5 million after-tax commodity cost headwind in fiscal '22.”

“We're still racing to catch up with demand in our largest market, the U.S. But we're not fully supplying the market's demand. And all of those, hopefully, over time or some of them at least offer even additional upside as they reverse themselves.”

“The combination of our categories being essential and relative consumer strength, give us confidence for the volume growth also in the second half.”

“We reiterate we expect sequential progress.”

“We assume in our forecast in our guidance, spot prices for both the commodity basket and for transportation and warehousing... we don't assume any easing in terms of transportation and warehousing or commodity cost impact or foreign exchange for that matter.”