T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS)

“we expect Q3 core adjusted EBITDA of approximately $9.4 billion or up 8% year-over-year.”

“expect Q3 net postpaid account additions to be approximately 250,000”

“But our expectation is the vast majority will be sourced through the JV.”

“on prepaid, what I'd expect from a service revenue perspective, is probably a similar trend, Q2 to Q3 to Q4 as we've seen Q1 to Q2.”

“But now that we have 6 months under our belt, almost 7 months can see that slope a little bit better than we could at the beginning of the year. So wholesale, and that always means wholesale and other tends to be a little bit higher in Q4, and you'll probably see that relative to Q3 this quarter as well.”

“On wholesale and other at the beginning of the year, we said it would be probably flat to slightly up. I probably see it being roughly flat for the full year now”

“Yes. And I think, Michael, if you're -- because you're probably doing the P and Q math there a little bit. And the reality is you've kind of got me here, we're probably going to be more towards the 3% ARPA growth for the full year than the 2.5% side of the house because we're really seeing strength in the core business.”

“Our intention, consistent with what we've said is not to increase our subsidy levels. Now that's going to mean that customers will have to pay more.”

“we are increasing our adjusted free cash flow guidance to now be between $18.4 million and $18.8 billion, an increase of $200 million at the midpoint, primarily driven by lower cash income taxes.”

“Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion.”

“We continue to expect core adjusted EBITDA to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion for the full year, representing 10% growth year-over-year at the midpoint.”

“we continue to [ step back ] strong postpaid ARPA growth of between 2.5% and 3% this year.”

“We continue to expect to deliver full year service revenues of approximately $77 billion this year, representing 8% growth with Q3 expectations of approximately $19.3 billion or up 6% year-over-year.”

“we continue to expect postpaid account net additions to be between 950,000 and 1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business”

“I would say the $2.7 billion that we laid out for you exiting 2027 certainly is on track.”

“We're tracking strong to that, and this quarter was another demonstration of it. So we feel very good about it.”

“And finally, last week, we announced we are increasing our 2026 stockholder return authorization by up to $3.6 billion to a total authorization of up to $18.2 billion.”

“So we're going to be working through that over the spring, the summer and the fall. I think we'll substantially have it wrapped up by this year in terms of the overall integration effort.”

“And then we will see an acceleration for the second half of the year back.”

“I would say most of that will come towards the last part of 2026 and then fully into 2027 and beyond.”

“Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion as we continue to invest to further differentiate the network.”

“We are also raising our full year core adjusted EBITDA guide, which is now expected to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range.”

“As part of that service revenue growth, we continue to expect strong postpaid ARPA growth of between 2.5% and 3% for the full year.”

“We continue to expect to deliver full year service revenue of approximately $77 billion, representing 8% growth with Q2 expectations of approximately $19 billion or up 9% year-over-year.”

“We are raising our expectation for total postpaid net account additions to be between 950,000 and 1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business.”

“We'll have workforce restructuring charges of approximately 150 million in Q1 as we go through our simplification initiatives and conclude what we began in Q4.”

“Is going to result in a network optimization cost of approximately $450 million will be done through that primarily in Q1 and Q2 we'll harvest those savings and reinvest into the network.”

“So we expect Q1 core adjusted EBITDA to be between $9 to $9.1 billion”

“we're going to hit the $12 million to 15 million homes passed by 2030. So that's something we are very confident about.”

“At this point in time, we can see line of sight to the 15 million, and that's what we'll go for by 2030.”

“So we've got clear line of sight to strong volume growth, especially with network seekers,”

“That's what makes us really confident that we can get to 15 million customers in 2030 and our speeds will be higher than this.”

“Today, I'm delighted to tell you that we believe this business will go to 15 million customers in 2030, and that there's a lot of runway even beyond that.”

“towards the 2026, we expect to start some field trials.”

“they are not planning currently to sell any T-Mobile US, Inc. shares in 2026 and in fact, they're looking at strategic alternatives to further deepen their investment.”

“That leaves over $22 billion a flexible envelope.”

“our initial view of this is allocating up to $30 billion towards shareholder returns. That currently includes an assumption of approximately up to $10 billion in share repurchases per year.”

“We see a huge opportunity in business. We've talked about double-digit revenue growth. For the next three years. It'll probably run for the next five.”

“We expect just based on our current assets, to scale to 12 million to 15 million homes passed, and three to 4 million customers by 2030,”

“But we believe we will continue growing ARPA in the range of 2.5% to 3%.”

“Fiber, we believe, will add three to 4 million customers. Which will give us a broadband business of 18 to 19 million customers by 2030.”

“And so that results in an assumption of 4.3 billion in cash interest outlays in 2026 stepping up to 5 billion in 2027.”

“Cash taxes are expected to be 1 and a half billion for 2026 and 3.5 billion in 2027 fully integrating the benefits we anticipate from the one big beautiful bill.”

“now expect those costs to drop down significantly in 2027 to $1 billion”

“We anticipate approximately $1.3 billion of merger-related cash outlays.”

“growing to between 19.5 billion to 20.5 billion in 2027.”

“Free cash flow is expected to be between 18 billion to $18.7 billion in 2026 growing to between 19.5 billion to 20.5 billion in 2027.”

“We've mentioned to you before, we expect CapEx of $10 billion in 2026, and that includes Between $9 billion to $10 billion”

“we expect approximately 1.2 billion in merger-related costs primarily related to U. S. Cellular.”

“We now expect between 2026 and '27 relative to 2025 these initiatives are going to deliver 1.3 billion of incremental savings in 2026, and 2.7 billion in 2027,”

“if I step back, at the high end of the guidance, this means from '25 to 2027, we'll have delivered more than $7 billion of incremental core adjusted EBITDA. Getting us to between 40 billion and $41 billion”

“2027, including $1.7 billion from M and A contribution, we expect 9% reported growth and 8% organic growth the midpoint.”

“we anticipate postpaid ARPA growth of between 2.5% to 3%.”

“implicit in that guide is an expectation of about two and a half million postpaid phone net additions.”

“At the high end of this guidance, from 2025 to 2027 we're going to deliver more than $10 billion of service revenue growth.”

“In 'twenty-seven, we now expect between 80.5 and 81 and a half billion in reported service revenue 5% top-line growth,”

“So for '26, we now expect approximately $77 billion in service revenue, representing 8% top-line growth,”

“As we look at Q4, our momentum into Q4 is continuing to be strong, and that's driven our raise in our guide on postpaid phones.”

“We're seeing that momentum continue into Q4 so far, and that's reflected in the numbers and the guidance that you heard from both Srini and Peter just a few moments ago.”

“In fact, we now believe for the full year, we'll have ARPU increase of approximately 2%, so up from 1.5% that we had previously guided to.”

“we now expect adjusted free cash flow, including payments for merger-related costs in the range of $17.8 billion to $18 billion, representing an increase of $200 million at the lower end of the range.”

“We now expect cash CapEx to be approximately $10 billion, an increase of $500 million, driven entirely by the inclusion of UScellular.”

“we anticipate Q4 depreciation and amortization expense of approximately $3.7 billion and interest expense of $1 billion.”

“we expect to incur approximately $160 million in additional expenses related to cell site decommissioning that will be excluded from core adjusted EBITDA.”

“we expect to incur approximately $300 million in costs to achieve in Q4, primarily driven by merger-related costs related to UScellular, which will be excluded from core adjusted EBITDA.”

“We now expect core adjusted EBITDA to be between $33.7 billion and $33.9 billion for the full year, an increase of $300 million at the midpoint, reflecting our ongoing core operating strength and the inclusion of UScellular into our full year guidance.”

“Excluding the impacts of UScellular and the fiber JVs, our underlying ARPA growth is now expected to be up approximately 4% for the full year.”

“We now expect postpaid ARPA growth of at least 3.5% for the full year, including the dilutive impacts of UScellular, Metronet and Lumos.”

“we are also raising our fiber customer net additions guidance to be approximately 103,000 this year, up from approximately 100,000 previously.”

“we are also increasing our expectation for postpaid phone net additions, now expected to be 3.3 million, highlighting the tremendous momentum we're seeing in the business.”

“we are raising our expectation for total postpaid net additions to now be between 7.2 million to 7.4 million, an increase of just over 1 million at the midpoint.”

“I plan on increasing our guidance for '26 and '27, and that reflects the core strength in the underlying business and M&A.”

“So as I model it out kind of by the end of '27, you're going to have those full synergies already coming to bear.”

“I'd expect the vast majority of those to come in 2026 and then achieve the full run rate of those synergies.”

“we both increased our synergy guidance to $1.2 billion in total OpEx and CapEx run rate synergies and accelerated the time line to realizing those run rate synergies to within 2 years of close.”

“I expect continued profitable growth in our core wireless and broadband businesses.”

“The Metronet deal, of course, closes tomorrow. And we will commercially launch T-Fiber in those markets later this year.”

“And by the way, the net incremental keep sites taking us from 9,000 in the UScellular footprint to about 12,000 are also principally mostly in smaller markets and rural areas.”

“And then obviously, the second half we're round tripping last year's rate plan changes. So it will be a little harder to deliver the same percentage gain.”

“ARPA growth is definitely going fabulously well this year. And that's the underpinnings for both the service revenue increase, now at least 6%, but also the strength there of 3.5% this year.”

“What we're anticipating going forward, if I think about Q3, sequentially, we anticipated being down, and year-over-year, probably flat to potentially slightly up, but we're through that heightened area of churn for us, and we're seeing great dynamics now.”

“The transaction is anticipated to generate approximately $850 million in incremental income taxes following the close.”

“our 50% equity stake in the joint venture will be reported below the line as an equity method invested and is expected to be immaterial to net income this year.”

“we expect the retail business to be slightly accretive to service revenues while remaining neutral to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow this year.”

“we continue to expect cash CapEx to be approximately $9.5 billion for the full year.”

“we expect Q3 core adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $8.5 billion as we accelerate investments into our business.”

“we now expect 2025 service revenue growth of at least 6% for the full year.”

“We also continue to expect strong postpaid ARPA growth of at least 3.5% for the full year as we see continued deepening of customer relationships”

“the combination gives us an expected 50% or more increase in capacity in the combined footprint and our site coverage will expand by 1/3 from 9,000 to 12,000 sites.”

“we have this 12 million customer target in 2028. It's entirely predicated on the fallow capacity model.”

“Plus, we've already said on Lumos and Metronet, we intend to get to 12 million to 15 million households.”

“While this won't meaningfully impact our 2025 cash tax expectations, we do expect an approximately $1.5 billion benefit to cash taxes in 2026 which will be deployed thoughtfully guided by our capital allocation philosophy.”

“We think we're very much on track for the things that need to unfold for us to deliver our year as well as our multiyear guidance to you.”

“Our intention is to move quickly and for the majority of our work to be first to fiber.”

“Right now, we haven't seen anything that causes us to think there's any kind of material impact to our business coming either way.”

“we believe, you know, Q1 was really the low point for us in wholesale and other service revenue, and we anticipate then growth to continue throughout the year and probably will end full year in that $2.9 billion range”

“we're seeing positive upside to prior guide on service revenues, probably squeaking in closer to 6% than the prior guidance of around 5% based on both those dynamics.”

“our 50% equity stake in the JV will be reported below the line as an equity method investment and is expected to be immaterial to net income this year.”

“as we fuel customer growth, expect the retail business will be slightly accretive to service revenues and neutral to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow this year.”

“Turning to cash CapEx, we continue to expect cash CapEx to be approximately $9.5 billion.”

“With the higher expectations for ARPA and ARPU growth, we now expect 2025 organic service to grow at an even higher rate than where we guided last quarter.”

“We're also increasing our postpaid ARPA growth expectations to be at least 3.5% for the full year, as we see continued deepening of customer relationships.”

“we continue to expect to deliver total postpaid net customer additions of between 5.5 and 6 million, of which approximately half will be postpaid phone net additions.”

“I think we're very much on track for the 12 million subscribers we talked about last fall by 2028 as well.”

“we are already gonna be seeing distributions back before the end of that 2030 period and the six and a half households six and a half million households pass there.”

“In other words, I don't see this being a reason why we're going to need more capacity or more spectrum. It's going to be a reason to showcase the massively superior capacity that we already have.”

“So I'd expect probably the exit rate being very similar to what we'll see throughout 2025.”

“What we foreshadowed at Capital Markets Day is that 2025 would be the low point for wholesale revenue and with growth thereafter.”

“And in addition, we're increasing our service revenue growth expectation for '25 versus what we shared just a few months ago.”

“In fact, we're starting 2025 with our highest-ever beginning of the year guide for expected postpaid net additions.”

“To add some more color on this, this includes an expectation for 2025 cash income tax payments of approximately $700 million based on current tax policy and increased cash interest payments of approximately $3.9 billion as we continue to maintain our prudent 2.5x leverage target on a growing core adjusted EBITDA.”

“We expect cash CapEx to be approximately $9.5 billion as we outlined for you at our Capital Markets Day, fueling the investments to not only maintain, but extend our network leadership.”

“I'd anticipate '25 after -- we saw some things and learn some things and adjusted how we approach the marketplace from a share buyback perspective in 2024. '25, I'd expect it to be probably more ratable during the course of the year as we think about it and approach shareholder returns.”

“This is a -- and this isn't always the case. This is a transaction that very clearly will result in both lower prices and better network.”

“I will comment that our quarter-to-date trends are spot on our plan and looking really strong. So no question marks there whatsoever.”

“As I think about Q4, we'll probably see the same seasonality from an equipment revenue perspective that we saw last year. So the same kind of absolute dollar increase that we saw Q3 to Q4 is, what I expect to happen from Q3 to this Q4.”

“Previously, what we had said is, from an ARPU perspective, we see probably about 0.5% year-over-year increase probably now see about 75 bps of that, so a little bit of strength there.”

“And you know, on wholesale, much like I said, in 2025, what we expect is the trough of wholesale and other service revenue.”

“And finally, we now expect adjusted free cash flow, which includes payments for merger-related costs to be in the range of $16.7 billion to $17 billion, up $50 million at the midpoint, driven by both margin expansion and capital efficiency, resulting in industry-leading service revenue to free cash flow conversion.”

“Turning to Cash CapEx, we now expect to be between $8.8 billion and $9 billion, unchanged at the midpoint.”

“We now expect core adjusted EBITDA to be between $31.6 million and $31.8 billion for the full year, up $50 million at the midpoint.”

“We expect our full year postpaid ARPA to be up around 3% year-over-year with industry-leading service revenue growth continuing to accelerate at a higher rate in 2024 than we delivered in 2023.”

“We now expect between $5.6 million and $5.8 million, up $150,000 at the midpoint relative to our prior guide.”

“The result of that will be that we will stay ahead of the demand curve and continue to extend our overall performance and 5G experience leadership in the country within the CapEx envelope that we provided to you.”

“We were able to indicate that for our planning horizon over the next few years, this $9 billion to $10 billion CapEx area makes sense.”

“We expect to extend it over time.”

“And that's what we expect as we hit that trough to continue to fuel growth past 2025.”

“Our longer-term expectations continue to be in the $9 billion to $10 billion range annually, as we outlined for you at our Capital Markets Day a few weeks ago.”

“Our appetite for further transactions in this space is limited. We really like the ones we've done. They give us a material footprint, and we're not currently working on something else like it.”

“But now that we're past the blackout, we certainly anticipate being back in the marketplace and delivering that up to now remaining $8.7 billion, inclusive of dividends for the year.”

“So as you think about what we just delivered in Q2, I'd anticipate a similar sequential increase in terms of number of bps, and similarly then from Q3 to Q4 of this year.”

“So what we saw last year was Q2 to Q3 sequentially was up 10 bps and Q3 to Q4 sequentially was up 9 bps, and so those are generally the sort of trends we'd expect.”

“And that'll distort the trend line until that fully winds down, which we anticipate be fully gone by Q4.”

“In terms of exactly what day we'll finish any sort of up to $60 billion, that's really hard to predict for you. We kind of put a mid-2026 timeframe out there, because we're going to be focused on exactly that strategy, that capital allocation.”

“I'd expect Q4 to be probably the biggest impact there.”

“If I think about the arc of the $350 million to $450 million impact, given, of course ACP was still in play in Q1 and partially in Q2, I’d see the majority of that impact happening in the second half and even more of it in Q4 than Q3, because still a little bit of a tail coming in Q3.”

“We expect this to continue to translate into industry-leading growth in service revenue, core adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, along with the highest adjusted free cash flow margin in the industry.”

“We would expect Q3 to be the low water mark for the year before we accelerating in Q4 with more site upgrades and build activity.”

“While our longer-term expectations continue to be in the $9 billion to $10 billion range annually, as we discussed before, 2024 is a bit lower given certain capital efficient network activities such as spectrum refarming and deploying additional 2.5 gigahertz licenses from auction 108, benefiting from the significant 5G radio deployments during our merger integration.”

“We continue to expect our full year postpaid ARPA to be up to 3% higher year-over-year, and our industry leading service revenue growth to accelerate at a higher rate in 2024 than we delivered in 2023.”

“We now expect the total postpaid phone net customer additions component to be approximately half of our total postpaid additions, up from our expectations last quarter, and as part of that, we anticipate normal seasonal postpaid phone churn trends in the second half, as we saw a year ago.”

“we are excited to raise our total postpaid customer net additions to now be between 5.4 million and 5.7 million, up 150,000 at the midpoint relative to our prior guide.”

“And we've been talking for some time, that it would take us probably into 2026 to realize the business support for that up to $60 billion in shareholder returns, and that's certainly the case as we look at all these transactions that are adding long-term value to the company.”

“we anticipate, that again to meet that business plan of 6.5 million households past that will get dividends back from the JV during the pendency of this through 2030, well in excess of a $1 billion.”

“that business plan as it stands, actually contemplates the need for no additional equity contributions.”

“The Metronet transaction, we see 6.5 million homes passed by 2030.”

“The Lumos transaction, we see 3.5 million homes passed by 2028.”

“We haven't guided on the rest of the year, but we've said we're well on track to the goal that we have always anticipated being by the end of 2025 in that 7 million to 8 million customers range.”

“The year is unfolding right in line with what we expected across the board, and in fact, better in some areas, and we're increasing our guidance for the year accordingly.”

“what we're seeing is a pace that would get us over 20% in the first year inside those markets.”

“Of course, it's in front of us, more so than behind us. No new activations as of February, but it's in front of us, but we think it's fully baked into the guidance range that we gave you, the range of outcomes that we anticipate.”

“at this point, we're expecting that the program funding is going to end. And the impact of that is fully contemplated in the guidance that Peter talked about and shared earlier.”

“We expect this to continue to translate into industry-leading growth in service revenue, core adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow along with the highest adjusted free cash flow margin in the industry, unlocking shareholder value.”

“So in closing, we continue to expect 2024 to be another year of differentiated profitable growth as we continue to extend our network leadership and further scale our unique growth opportunities.”

“We continue to expect cash CapEx to be between $8.6 billion and $9.4 billion as we deliver a capital efficiency unmatched in our industry on the back of our network integration and 5G leadership.”

“we expect our industry-leading service revenue growth to accelerate at a higher rate in 2024 than we delivered in 2023 even with the discontinuation of the Affordable Connectivity Program that appears imminent at this point in time and is contemplated within the increased guidance.”

“And we expect to remain on track as it relates to our stockholder return ambitions.”

“our 405,000 nets are expected to represent a higher share of industry broadband net adds than even a year ago and are expected to be more than half of all nets from the major providers once again.”

“There may be more changes, particularly with older rate plans. But we're not here to announce anything. I will tell you that all the outcomes that we see from all of that on the customer side as well as on the ARPA side and on the EBITDA and revenue side are contained within the guidance that Peter just shared.”

“I think we're confident in our ability to deliver what we've signed up for here, which is another incremental up to $16 billion currently authorized in share buybacks and dividends for 2024 and pacing towards that.”

“And frankly, what we see from a service revenue opportunity in 2024 is even larger percentage growth than what we delivered in 2023. So more than the 3.1% full year growth we'll see in '24 despite, of course, some slight ongoing headwinds in wholesale with the offset of TracFone and other carriers.”

“And I tell you that it looks like we're really in a place where we can achieve that 20% goal by 2025 based on where we are”

“But you are going to see us have more and more focus on EPS. And obviously, there was a couple, as I mentioned, a couple of catalysts, including the 48.8 million shares for Q4, but you'll see us more and more focused on EPS.”

“We're going to have a little bit of merger-related costs in 2024, probably 150 in Q1 and 50 in Q2.”

“But I'd expect a continued year-over-year sequential decline, but not a specific guide on wholesale.”

“Let's start with upgrade rates. We don't see big catalysts for change here.”

“With regards to '24, we're not anticipating to be a significant cash taxpayer, so it wouldn't impact the guide for 2024.”

“We think there's still room to grow in HSI. We still, with a 5 million customer base still runway in front of us to grow both in new customers but also in services.”

“We expect this to continue to translate into industry-leading growth in service revenue, core adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow delivering the highest free cash flow margin in the industry to unlock shareholder value.”

“In closing, we expect '24 to be another year of profitable growth as we continue to extend our network leadership and further scale our differentiated growth opportunities.”

“Second, we expect approximately half of the $600 million to $700 million of anticipated full year '24 cash merger-related costs to be in Q1.”

“First, we expect Q1 to be the peak CapEx quarter at probably 30% of the full year midpoint of the CapEx guidance I just shared with you.”

“We expect Q1 free cash flow to be approximately 20% of that full year midpoint given several items that fall early in the year.”

“We would expect the operating leverage and efficiencies to drive EBITDA this year to build throughout the year, layered against the seasonal trends of the business.”

“For example, we would expect slightly less sequential improvement from Q4 2023 to Q1 of this year than we saw last year as we achieved full run rate synergies in Q4 2023 and no longer have that as an incremental sequential factor as we had in past Q4 to Q1 progressions.”

“We also accelerated depreciation on certain technology assets in Q4 and would anticipate a year-over-year increase in depreciation and amortization of approximately $500 million to $1 billion in full year 2024, as we continue to modernize our network and technology systems and platforms.”

“We expect that dilution to be more than offset by our ongoing share repurchases in 2024.”

“We see continued strong customer and revenue growth, translating into rapid growth in cash flows in 2024 and beyond, and supporting our ambitious plans for shareholder returns that we've already shared with you.”

“but we're going to come right in there in the middle of the range.”

“And I predict that two years from now, we still will be.”

“Let me remind everybody that we got our C-band left and we got 3.45 left, for example. Those will need capital next year, and we're looking into a precise deployment of those.”

“There's no broad plans to do any more of that in 2024.”

“There's no real new dynamic there with cable. They've been pretty consistent since about a year ago, and we expect that to continue.”

“On the equipment revenue side, I'd expect it to be in the same kind of low $3 billion range for Q4 as a result of that dynamic.”

“I feel equipment revenue, which as you know, isn't the value-creating element of the company, that's service revenue, that will continue to have industry-leading growth.”

“By the end of the year, we are approaching 200 megahertz that we will have dedicated for 5G products.”

“And I do expect as we learn more, we'll get better there as well.”

“And then more room to run next year, because as I said, we have Auction 108 proceeds still pending, we have C-band that we haven't deployed, 3.45, as well as refarming potential from spectrum being used for LTE right now, like AWS.”

“But our target is to be at 200 megahertz around the end of this year deployed against the 300 million people.”

“You take these last couple of quarters and drag them right, we'll be the share leader soon enough in smaller markets and rural areas.”

“And finally, we continue to expect full year postpaid ARPA to increase slightly more than 1% as we continue to expand our account relationships as part of our land and expand account strategy to grow service revenue.”

“Turning to income taxes, we continue to expect our full year effective tax rate to be between 24% and 26%.”

“Consistent with the entire year, the updated free cash flow guidance does not assume any material net cash inflows from securitization.”

“but also represents a free cash flow to service revenue margin, which is multiple percentage points higher than peers with further expansion expected next year.”

“The higher operating cash flows not only fund the increased CapEx, but also allow for a slight increase to free cash flow, now expected to be between $13.4 billion to $13.6 billion, which includes payments for merger-related costs.”

“We now expect cash CapEx to be between $9.6 billion and $9.8 billion, delivering our network milestones ahead of schedule at a capital efficiency unmatched in our industry.”

“Net cash provided by operating activities which include payments for merger related costs are now expected to be in the range of $18.3 billion to $18.5 billion.”

“And we now expect cash merger related costs of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion for 2023 as they have under run the P&L recognition to date.”

“We continue to expect merger-related costs, which are not included in adjusted or core adjusted EBITDA, to be approximately $1 billion before taxes.”

“Our merger synergies are expected to be approximately $7.5 billion in 2023, achieving the full run rate synergy target provided at our Analyst Day a year ahead of schedule as we build towards the full run rate synergies of $8 billion in 2024.”

“Our focus on profitable growth allows us to fund those higher postpaid phone net ads and still increase our core adjusted EBITDA expectation, which we now expect to be between $29 billion and $29.2 billion.”

“We now expect total postpaid net customer additions to be between 5.7 million and 5.9 million, up 50,000 at the midpoint.”

“our hope is that because of that capital efficiency and what we're now seeing, we may be able to accomplish everything we set out to accomplish next year at the lower end of that capital range.”

“We said we saw a potential here of 7 million to 8 million subscribers based on the excess capacity profile of our built mobile network. That means it's not capital burdened. And because of that, we can make profit there. And so it plays a role. It's a single-digit penetration role, and we're on our way to going and seizing it for the benefit of our shareholders and our customers and it's right on track.”

“it gives us confidence that the 7 million to 8 million total customers that we committed to at the end of this planning period that we've got high confidence that we're going to get there.”

“that original thesis of around $60 billion through 2025 is intact.”

“which shows we're not only on track to meet our goal of 20% share in 2025, but it gives us confidence we have room to run in the years beyond.”

“Certainly, from a cost perspective, there's a little bit in terms of physical decom while the sites are shut off, there's still physical decom happening. And on the synergy development, as we get from $7.5 billion to the $8 billion next year, really, the big chunk of that is avoided costs.”

“we continue to believe on a year-to-year basis, ARPU will be generally stable. There's probably some potential for sequential increase again from Q2 to Q3.”

“The mid-band megahertz will grow to 200 megahertz dedicated to 5G by the end of the year by migrating more LTE spectrum over to 5G.”

“we actually pulled ahead in our leadership. And 285 mid-band POPs, we're heading towards 300 by the end of this year.”

“you heard what we announced today already there from a year-to-date basis in terms of beating them on the conversion ratio when next year anticipated to expand that ratio further.”

“So we do have higher upgrade rates contemplated than what we saw in Q2, but we don't specifically guide to those other than directionally.”

“we expect the full run rate impact beginning in Q3 as I laid out last quarter.”

“We continue to expect our full year effective tax rate to be between 24% and 26%.”

“This also represents a free cash flow to service revenue margin, which is multiple percentage points higher than peers with further expansion expected next year.”

“The slightly higher operating cash flows fund the increased CapEx resulting in strong free cash flow of $13.2 billion to $13.6 billion, which includes payments for merger-related costs.”

“We expect CapEx to taper in Q3 and then further in Q4.”

“We continue to expect merger related costs, which are not included in adjusted or core adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $1 billion before taxes.”

“Our merger synergies are expected to be approximately $7.5 billion in 2023, achieving the full run rate synergy target provided at our Analyst Day a year ahead of schedule as we build towards the full run rate synergies of $8 billion in 2024.”

“Our focus on profitable growth allows us to fund those higher customer net adds and still increase our core adjusted EBITDA expectation, which we now expect to be between $28.9 billion and $29.2 billion.”

“$9 billion to $10 billion feels about right for next year at this point in time.”

“we are actually going to end up the year with 200 megahertz of dedicated spectrum just on the mid-band.”

“We are very confident that we are going to reach the 300 million by the end of the year.”

“the underpinning of that opportunity for up to $60 billion in share buybacks through just the end of 2025 and here we are in 2023 already. Remember, this machine and this free cash flow production continues into 2026 and beyond.”

“We maintain and have for the entire decade long journey of the Un-carrier an envelope of superior pricing versus our benchmark competitors and we intend for that to continue.”

“we had this ambition to move from 13% share of households to 20% by the end of 2025.”

“we are moving now from 200 -- this quarter we are reporting 275 million POPs covered by with this mid-band spectrum and we are moving towards 300 coverage by the end of the year, giving us new opportunities also to serve other HSI opportunities.”

“We expect this to be a 7 million unit to 8 million unit opportunity the way we are doing it right now, which is essentially selling excess capacity on our network.”

“our expectation is that, that run rate we have been seeing in that 60s will carry forward and we have certainly seen that since the launch and it was true for Magenta MAX all through Q1.”

“So, in closing, we expect 2023 to be another year of profitable growth and even greater free cash flow expansion as we continue to extend our network leadership and further scale our differentiated profitable growth opportunities.”

“With the mid-quarter closing, we expect a partial impact in Q2 with the full quarter impact beginning in Q3.”

“On a quarterly basis, this will lead to approximately $125 million lower wholesale and other service revenue and approximately $175 million lower cost of service expenses with a nominal impact to SG&A.”

“we continue to expect full year postpaid ARPA to be up approximately 1% in 2023.”

“We continue to expect our full year effective tax rate to be between 24% and 26%.”

“based on the cadence of CapEx, I would expect free cash flow in Q2 to be slightly higher than Q1 and then ramp in the back half of the year.”

“Together, this results in higher free cash flow, including payments for merger-related costs, which is now expected to be in the range of $13.2 billion to $13.6 billion.”

“We continue to expect cash CapEx to be between $9.4 billion and $9.7 billion, driven by a capital efficiency unmatched in our industry on the back of our network integration and 5G leadership.”

“we also continue to expect cash merger-related costs of $1.5 billion to $2 billion for 2023 as they have underrun the P&L recognition to-date.”

“Our merger synergies are expected to be between $7.3 billion to $7.5 billion in 2023, approaching the full run rate synergy target from our Analyst Day a year ahead of schedule as we build towards the recently raised run rate synergy target of $8 billion in 2024.”

“Our focus on profitable growth allows us to fund those higher customer net adds and still increase our core adjusted EBITDA expectations, which are now expected to be between $28.8 million and $29.2 billion, this is up 10% year-over-year at the midpoint based on higher service revenues and merger synergies, of course, excludes leasing revenues of approximately $300 million, as we transition substantially all remaining customers off device leasing by year end.”

“We continue to have line of sight to the up to $60 billion.”

“And looking ahead to 2023, we're very confident in our differentiated strategy. In fact, we're on track to meet or exceed all of the aspirations for this year that we shared with you way back at our Analyst Day in early 2021.”

“So as I think about like Q1 probably in the approximately 6.9 range and then continued unlock throughout the course of the year on core EBITDA.”

“And that number, we've said we're targeting 200 megahertz just on the mid-band spectrum by the end of this year.”

“Yes. Absolutely, Mike. And your question, we're definitely not anticipating ARPU to be down on a year-over-year basis. And probably our guide right now would be generally stable.”

“Altogether, we expect 2023 to be another year of profitable growth and even greater free cash flow expansion as we continue to extend our network leadership and further scale our differentiated growth opportunities.”

“Turning now to taxes, we expect our full year effective tax rate to be between 24% and 26%.”

“I would expect this to be a bit more weighted towards the first half of the year.”

“This is expected to be the last year of material margin related costs from a P&L perspective.”

“With the major integration work now behind us, we expect merger-related costs, which are not included in adjusted or core adjusted EBITDA, to be approximately $1 billion before taxes, and is expected to be front-end loaded with roughly 40% expected in Q1.”

“We not only delivered accelerated synergies, but now also expect higher run rate synergies of approximately $8 billion in 2024, of which approximately $2 billion is avoided cost, which is consistent with the amount expected at our Analyst Day.”

“This excludes leasing revenues of approximately $300 million as we transition substantially all remaining customers off device leasing by year-end.”

“We believe 2023 will also be a year in which we begin to see the payoff. In terms of EBITDA and massive cash flow expansion of years of work on merger integration, synergy attainment and the most ambitious network build in U.S. history, all of which are mostly behind us now.”

“You asked about DoD and C-band spectrum. We have some great assets there. Probably a 2024 deployment plan for us as the opportunity to leverage and deploy that spectrum cleaned up with the FAA, et cetera, but 200 megahertz on mid-band is going to be an industry-leading proposition long before we get to the pentanes.”

“But there's been just a this amount of tailwind. We continue to see strength in Magenta MAX take rates in Q4. So as you get further into the year, there's potentially opportunity that we could even see some increases over that.”

“No, it doesn't mean that. And because, again, our business plan on fixed wireless is essentially an incremental capital free plan.”

“All those things look to us to be on track including things like the EBITDA range we shared, the revenue range that we shared, the customer aspirations, the cash flow aspirations, and therefore, the share buyback potential in our plan and also the CapEx outlook.”

“And you see, even with our Analyst Day projections for 2023, even before we get the full run rate cash potential of this business in the later periods, we're projected to convert service revenue into free cash flow as a leader in this industry.”

“So we are still in the early innings of rolling out this mid-band network. Obviously we have a tremendous leadership position, but in terms of our ability to support the numbers we've talked about by 2025, we're in a good place.”

“I mean we're majority complete on our network modernization and the addition of those mid-band radios. We still have more to do, and that's going to continue into 2023 and 2024, and that will continue to open up more opportunity, as we referenced earlier, for fixed wireless.”

“The transaction is not expected to have any material financial impact to 2023 based on the expected closing timeline.”

“And with greater success in attracting new to T-Mobile customers with high speed internet, we now expect full year postpaid ARPA to be up in the mid-to-high 2% range.”

“Additionally, we continue to expect postpaid phone ARPU to be up approximately 2% for the full year, driven by continued customer adoption of value added services, including Magenta MAX.”

“We now expect our full year effective tax rate to be between 17% and 19% based on favorability, primarily from non-recurring benefits we've seen year-to-date.”

“This results in free cash flow increasing by more than 30% over last year, even with the higher levels of investments and does not assume any material net cash inflows from securitization.”

“Turning to cash CapEx, we now expect it to be between $13.7 billion and $13.9 billion, which is up $200 million at the midpoint, reflecting the ongoing robust pace of our 5G deployment and success in high speed internet where we capitalize the routers.”

“Net cash provided by operating activities, which include payments for merger-related costs, are now expected to be in the range of $16.3 billion to $16.5 billion, up 18% year-over-year at the midpoint and up $250 million from the prior guidance.”

“Merger-related costs, which are not included in core adjusted EBITDA are expected to be between $4.8 billion and $5 billion before taxes, primarily representing network decommissioning activities.”

“Core adjusted EBITDA excludes leasing revenues, which we expect to be between $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion as we continue to transition Sprint customers off device leasing.”

“We continue to expect nearly half of postpaid net adds, coming from phones for the full year.”

“I am pretty confident that we will see T-Mobile as the fastest growing broadband provider in the industry for the third consecutive quarter and most likely by a wide margin.”

“That plan goes through middle of next year as we build the capabilities on and then really seamlessly convert customers, which has already begun.”

“In terms of migration of rate plans, you saw certainly in the first part of last year, as we said, we did a significant amount of the rate plan migrations to the target rate plans. There’s still some more of that to go in planned, both this year as well as the start of next year, but we are through the vast majority of it.”

“We always said that, if you compare where this business would be as a combined T-Mobile and Sprint in 2024, 2025 against the standalone T-Mobile, that multiple was about a 14x, 1-4 on capacity. We are about halfway through that already in terms of the capacity we are generating.”

“Our mid-band footprint, our ultra-capacity 5G, which is where the 5G story really comes to life, 235 million people covered well on our way to 260 million by the end of this year and that footprint covers 87% of T-Mobile customers today.”

“We look at Q3 and it looks to us like we will be 2021 churn by a similar margin in Q3 as we beat it in Q2, mid-to-high single-digit bps improvement versus last year, and of course, there’s seasonal effects in the second half of the year as switching tends to be higher due to phone launches.”

“The agreement, as of the struck, gives us tremendous visibility into what revenues will be in the coming years. And while that’s down over Analyst Day expectations, it’s about three quarters of what we anticipated at Analyst Day through the duration of the plan period, so very pleased with that.”

“Unfortunately, we don’t have an update for you other than to reiterate what we told you in the past, looking at all of our momentum, our financial performance, we continue to see upwards of $60 billion in share buybacks in 2023, 2024 and 2025 in total with the possibility of beginning sooner, and absolutely, nothing has changed on that front, but we have accomplished some very important milestones toward that end.”

“And we expect postpaid phone ARPU to be up approximately 2% for the full year, driven by continued customer adoption of value-add services, including Magenta MAX.”

“We continue to expect our full year effective tax rate to be between 24% and 26%.”

“This is up more than 30% over last year, even with the higher levels of investment and does not assume any material net cash inflows from securitization.”

“Together, we now expect free cash flow, including payments for merger-related costs, to be in the range of $7.3 billion to $7.6 billion, which we raised $50 million at the midpoint.”

“With Q2 being the peak quarter, we expect that Q3 will be closer to Q1 levels, and then taper off in Q4.”

“We now expect full year 2022 to be between $26 billion and $26.3 billion, up more than 10% year-over-year at the midpoint and up $150 million from our prior guidance, driven by our profitable growth in service revenues and merger synergies.”

“We continue to expect nearly half of postpaid net adds will be coming from phones for the full year.”

“We believe that as we continue to get more and more Sprint customers settled with the right rate plans, which is the last component of our integration that potentially there’s some more momentum to see in the quarters ahead.”

“but by the end of next year, we'll be at 300 million.”

“you just heard Neville say that by the end of this year, we'll reach 260 million people with Ultra Capacity.”

“We've said 300 million people from the 225 million today will be covered with 5G Ultra Capacity. And so that's our end of '23 target.”

“we gave ourselves a pretty bold aspiration to be at 20% market share in 2025. And I'll tell you, when share rates today, we're already on track.”

“All of that combined puts us on a really good trajectory to the 7 million to 8 million customers we talked about in 2025. I think we're in a good pacing to meet that objective.”

“We're raising our guidance for the year across the board based on the momentum that we see in our business.”

“We continue to expect our full year effective tax rate to be between 24% and 26%.”

“we now expect free cash flow, including payments for merger-related costs, to be in the range of $7.2 billion to $7.6 billion which we raised $50 million at the midpoint.”

“We expect slightly over 1/3 of the total to occur in Q2 and then taper off in the second half of the year as merger-related costs precede synergy realization.”

“Merger-related costs not included in core adjusted EBITDA are still expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5 billion before taxes, primarily representing network activities.”

“we expect core adjusted EBITDA in Q2 to be similar to Q1 and then higher in the second half.”

“excludes leasing revenues which we continue to expect to be between $1.1 billion to $1.4 billion as we transition Sprint customers off device leasing.”

“We continue to expect roughly half of postpaid net adds coming from phones for the full year more weighted to the second half, with the Sprint migration impacts more in the first half and expansion in smaller markets and rural areas building throughout the year.”

“I couldn't be more excited about high-speed Internet, where we had 338,000 net adds and I expect will be the fastest-growing broadband provider in the industry for the second consecutive quarter.”

“The guidance we gave you today assumes that in 2022, it's a lot less than that, material step down in 2022.”

“Well, first of all, as it relates to the trends that Dow was saying, we see 2022 significantly bigger than 2021, and we see 2023 bigger than 2022.”