American Express Company (AXP)

“One portfolio transfer happened in April this year and the second one is expected in Q3.”

“To be clear, because that's the most important thing, we expect that either card fees are going to exit this year with a growth rate in the high teens.”

“And as we increase investments in new customer acquisition and technology development, we are maintaining our full year EPS guidance of $17.30 to $17.90.”

“Given the momentum in the business, we are raising our revenue guidance and now expect full year revenue growth of 10%.”

“We are tracking ahead of the expectations we set at the beginning of the year, generating momentum that enables us to invest more in 2026 and than we initially planned and opportunities that drive long-term growth.”

“Based on our better-than-expected performance year-to-date, we are raising our full year revenue growth guidance to 10%, and we plan to reinvest this outperformance in growth initiatives across our business.”

“Now it's too -- it's not significant enough to kind of like move the needle in the balance of Europe. But we expect that momentum to continue. Bear in mind, though, that as we transfer those 2 small business portfolios, they're not very large. They're not contributing to earnings. But there was a lot of -- there were some billed business associated with those cards and that will put about a 1% headwind to those billing numbers.”

“But we are a momentum business, right? And so you can expect that a lot of the good momentum we've seen is going to continue in the balance of Europe.”

“And we would expect over time for that number to decrease.”

“And so in terms of how and what to expect in the balance of the year, we are expecting operating expense this year to be in the mid-teens, mid-single digits, sorry. Oh, sorry, one mid-single digit this year.”

“This would be a headwind until we lap it. Now what's important to understand is that although it impacts NII, the impact to net income and earnings is really negligible.”

“And as you think about the balance of your either there will be another transfer of the Amazon portfolio in Q3. And so by the time you get to Q4, both portfolio will be out of our system, if you want, and the impact to the NII line is going to be 2.5%.”

“We expect the transaction to close in the second half of the year and will provide more detail there.”

“We will lap the impacts of the Platinum refresh starting in Q4, resulting in lower growth in VCE expenses.”

“On the VCE ratio, given the higher level of spendings we have seen this year, we now expect the ratio to be between 44% and 45% for the full year.”

“We continue to expect operating expenses to grow in the mid-single digits for the full year.”

“We expect marketing to be up by around 10% year-over-year in the second half of the year, driven by increased investments in customer acquisition.”

“On card fees, we expect growth to accelerate in Q3 and to exit the year in the high teens, and we continue to expect credit metrics to be generally stable throughout the year.”

“I would note that the portfolio sales will have a negligible impact to pretax income, and these impacts were incorporated in the guidance we provided for the year.”

“Starting in Q4, a we expect a quarterly impact of around 1 percentage point to spend growth at around 2.5 percentage point impact to net interest income until we lap the portfolio sales.”

“At the same time, we do expect to see impacts from the sale of the small business co-brand portfolios in the balance of the year, which I will get to a bit later when I discuss our outlook.”

“In looking to the second half of the year, we have great momentum. We expect card fee growth to accelerate credit to continue to be very strong and variable card member engagement growth to decelerate as we lap the Platinum refresh of last year.”

“We continue to expect full year EPS of $17.30 to $17.90.”

“This being said, the impact is not that large. And I don't think that it is something that you should worry too much about... definitely I don't think this is something that should create an impact to our overall billing trends.”

“I think what you should take away from this is that we're reaffirming the 9% to 10%, and we're taking the over delivery from an EPS perspective and investing that back into the business.”

“So I think what you're seeing is momentum that I believe if it continues, will allow us to achieve that.”

“As a result, we are reaffirming our full year guidance of revenue growth of 9% to 10% and earnings per share between $17.30 and $17.90.”

“Looking ahead, we're reaffirming our full year 2026 guidance of 9% to 10% annual revenue growth and EPS of $17.30 to $17.9.”

“As you think about projecting that into 2027, we'll see what happens. But I don't think at this stage, we should expect like a further acceleration in 2027. I expect that step-up to maintain into 2027.”

“I think while we had the 11% growth this quarter, one thing I will point out, as the year goes on, the Amazon and the Lowe's book will roll off. That will have a slight drag on revenue, zero impact on PTI.”

“We plan to continue to return the excess capital we generated to shareholders while supporting growth and we do not expect a material change to our capital management approach in the near term.”

“Under the rules as proposed today, we expect the impact of capital requirements to range from neutral to modestly positive.”

“We now expect marketing expenses to grow in the mid-single digits for the full year.”

“For the full year, we continue to expect the VCE to revenue ratio to be lower than Q1, around 44%.”

“Looking ahead, we expect NII growth to continue to outpace growth in balances for the year.”

“We expect card fee growth to pick up as the year progresses as we see the impact from Platinum refresh exiting the year in the high teens.”

“These results are consistent with our expectations for generally stable credit metrics throughout 2026.”

“At the same time, we expect a negligible impact to pretax income.”

“This has generated consistently strong momentum which gives me confidence in our ability to not only deliver on our 2026 guidance, but also to continue driving strong growth over the long term.”

“credit is very low, and there is a hard limit to how low these numbers can be. Right? And 2% is pretty much at that limit.”

“We expect that growth rate to pick up in the balance of the year as the year progresses.”

“As shown on slide 21, for the full year 2026 we expect revenue growth of 9% to 10% and earnings per share between $17.30 and $17.90.”

“We plan to invest at these levels while generating strong bottom-line growth in line with our aspirations.”

“In 2026, we expect operating expenses to grow in the mid-single digits.”

“In 2026, we expect the VCE to revenue ratio to be around 44%. Driven by these investments and ongoing mix shift towards premium products, and assuming a similar spend environment to what we've seen recently.”

“We expect NII growth to continue to outpace growth in loans and receivables in 2026.”

“In 2026, we expect card fee growth to pick up as the year progresses as we see the impact from the platinum refresh, exiting the year in the high teens.”

“In 2026, we expect credit metrics to remain generally stable with some seasonal variation in provision across quarters.”

“In 2026, we expect loans and receivables to continue to grow largely in line with billed business.”

“Our expectations for 2026 are no different. We expect to continue delivering the pace and quality of growth we've seen in recent years, while also continuing to invest in areas to sustain our growth, and deliver strong capital returns to shareholders.”

“we expect to migrate 100% of our data and analytics processes to the new platform by 2027.”

“We expect 2026 revenue growth of 9% to 10% and EPS of $17.30 to $17.90.”

“So I think it'll, it'll stabilize.”

“So, you know, are we going to see a big accelerant from here? It's not what we're expecting, but we're not also expecting a deceleration as well.”

“I don't see anything in the horizon here that would indicate that billings are going to slow down or decline.”

“As we've noted previously, we expect the VCE ratio to increase over time as a result of our investments in the value proposition and the mix shift to a more premium portfolio.”

“But we are, you know, we are still, you know, doing all of this with the, you know, ambition to deliver 15 or mid-teens EPS in terms of, in terms of the coming years.”

“You know, of course, we have those insights. It was not all that visible to all of you, but we were expecting that kind of like step up in Cochems in Q4 and we are expecting it as well for 2026 going forward.”

“putting those factors together, it takes roughly two years to fully lap the impact of the refresh on card fees. With the contribution to growth peaking 12 months following the effective date of the new annual fee.”

“Card fee growth moderated as we expected and will continue to moderate before we see an inflection upward in 2026.”

“And we think, you know, hopefully the, the downturn that we saw from an organic perspective is, is going to be behind us.”

“We hope that that continues into the fourth quarter.”

“And with the upcoming, you know, launch of the platform called that gives us confidence in our ability to originate new cards in the balance of year that will certainly support their the billing growth.”

“As a result, we are reaffirming our full-year guidance of revenue growth of 8% to 10%, and earnings per share between $15 and $15.50.”

“Based on our strong performance year to date, we are reaffirming our full-year revenue growth and EPS guidance that we provided in January.”

“And given the previous conversations that we had about the timing of the platinum fee increase, it's only sometimes in the new year in 2026. That you should see that inflection point and a bit more acceleration.”

“Yeah. So it's a complicated dynamic, Terry, but you might remember the beginning of the year, we said, you know, that you should expect the card fee growth rate to kind of moderate in the balance of the year. We still believe that's gonna happen. So you should expect to see that in Q3 and Q4.”

“I don't think it really is gonna have much of an impact from an SMB perspective. For us either one of those either one of those portfolios.”

“So we'll just gonna ride this out as it is, and think it's gonna continue to be very, very consistent.”

“So I think, you know, look, I think we're just planning for it to continue to be consistent as it is.”

“Looking ahead, for the full year, we expect OpEx growth to be in the mid-single digits versus last year except certified.”

“If you think about the way we manage the expense base, we generally expect VCE to grow a bit faster than revenue as a result of the mix shift towards premium products and the investment we make in products to drive acquisition, engagement, and strong credit outcomes.”

“And as you know, what we do is just like we wait until the renewal anniversary of the card member to increase you know, to move the card member to the new price point. So and then we amortize it over twelve months. So the cost of card member service moves kind of like immediately, and it takes, you know, like, maximum two years for the card fee benefit to flow through the P&L.”

“And the card fee increases will take a little bit more time to filter through the P&L.”

“And I do believe, where we are right now with the macroeconomic situation the way it is, that we can continue to be within our guidance range on both revenue and EPS.”

“I think, look, as we've said before, from a guidance perspective, and I said this at conferences, we believe that -- at that 8% range, we can make our EPS number.”

“This guidance incorporates a macroeconomic outlook with a peak weighted average unemployment rate of around 5.7%, higher than the outlook as it stood at quarter end.”

“Given the stability of our performance to date, we are maintaining our guidance of revenue growth of 8% to 10% and earnings per share between $15 and $15.50.”

“Now that we have lapped impact from the URR model change -- from the URR model changed last year, we expect rewards to grow more in line with the historical trend for the remainder of this year.”

“Based on the steady spend and credit trends we've seen to date, we are maintaining our full year revenue growth guidance of 8% to 10% and EPS of $15 to $15.50.”

“Our expectation is that double-digit billings will continue into the foreseeable future.”

“In SME, we see continued growth opportunities in the US where we expect to continue adding new small business customers and expanding our offerings to meet more of their needs beyond the card such as lending, checking and cash flow management.”

“And NII will continue albeit at a little bit of a lower growth rate than you saw in the first two quarters of last year.”

“With this plan increase, we expect to more than double the dividend since the beginning of 2019.”

“Given the significant increase of the investment pool in 2024, we expect a modest increase in marketing expense for 2025.”

“Stepping back, we expect overall VCE expenses to grow slightly faster than revenues in 2025 as we continue to invest in our products and drive Card Member engagement and as our portfolio continues to become more premium.”

“As we think about 2025, we expect NII growth to outpace the growth in total loans and receivables supported by growth in revolving balances.”

“With that process largely behind us, for 2025, we expect loans and receivables growth to continue to grow a bit faster than spend and we continue to meet more -- as we continue to meet more of the borrowing needs of our premium customers.”

“Currently, we're refreshing between 35 and 50 products a year and we're planning to maintain that pace in 2025 along with other enhancements to our membership model for both our consumer and commercial customers.”

“However, if spend growth continues at the elevated Q4 level throughout this year, we would expect to come in at the higher end of our revenue range, all else being equal.”

“So as we think about 2025, we are assuming at this point a similar spend environment to what we saw in 2024 on a full year basis.”

“For now, we're assuming 2025 billings growth will be similar to full year 2024 number.”

“We are not seeing anything that would indicate that spending would go down. And we are not seeing anything that would indicate our credit metrics are getting any worse.”

“This year indeed, is a good reference, right? And we are going to grow EPS north of the mid-teens, even when you control for the Accertify gain.”

“Yes, I think EPS growth in the range -- in our mid-teens range is absolutely something that should be expected from us.”

“And I think with our Tock acquisition and so forth, I think we will continue to punch above our weight from a restaurant perspective.”

“Our expectations are that we will continue to gain share in that restaurant space.”

“But the way to think about it is moderation in terms of volume. We are going to maintain the strong yield that you see now and very, very limited impact from any change in the rate environment from a Fed fund rate standpoint.”

“And so this creates a positive impact or positive effect on the yield. And on the interest income... And so we should expect the yield to benefit from this dynamic.”

“From a volume standpoint, we have said that you should expect the volumes, the AR especially the revolving balances to moderate in terms of growth.”

“So as you said, we are only like a few weeks into Q4, but my projection for Q4 is to be a continuation of a lot of these trends. So Q3 is a good proxy for what to expect about Q4, and that's why we are guiding towards 9% revenue growth.”

“But additionally, we are looking to invest more in marketing as we move into next year and more in technology and so forth.”

“And as the economy gets stronger, these are cohorts and most of these people that we're acquiring are Millennials and Gen-Z. These are cohorts that will continue to grow with us. That we'll see an uptick in organic spending over time.”

“On a full year basis, we continue to expect operating expenses to remain fairly flat year-over-year, adjusting for the Accertify gain.”

“There is some seasonality to operating expense levels, and we expect to see a slight uptick in Q4, consistent with prior year's trend.”

“As I mentioned last quarter, we expect our full year marketing spend for 2024 to be around $6 billion, as we lean into the attractive growth opportunities available to us.”

“Looking forward, I still expect modest upward buyers to these rates, as we continue to acquire new customers at elevated levels and increase our share of lending from existing customers.”

“While revolve rates have largely built back since the pandemic, we expect to see continued upward momentum over time, as we meet more of our customers' borrowing needs on our premium products and grow our charge in co-brand portfolios.”

“Looking ahead, we continue to see a long runway for growth as we expand our share of lend with our Premium Card members.”

“We are on track to refresh approximately 40 products globally by the end of the year.”

“we should expect the volume, the balances, the loans to growth rate to moderate a bit further in the balance of the year, although it will remain in double-digit.”

“you should expect to see the NII growth rate kind of like moderate a bit in the balance of the year.”

“typically as well, it's a seasonal factor at American Express, we've seen operating expenses pick-up a little bit towards the end of the year.”

“we expect to build some balances in the balance of the year for credit reserves, CECL balance -- CECL reserves, sorry. And so, that will put a bit of pressure on the EPS.”

“Yeah. Net card fee. So we feel very good about either adding a bit more momentum as we said in terms of the card fee growth, we are at like 16% FX adjusted and we are definitely expecting this to tick up a bit in the balance of the year.”

“I would expect 2.8%, maybe 2.9%, but we're going to be in that range. And to your point, credit losses, we expect stability from where we are now for the balance of the year.”

“And to your point, the direction we're providing now is that it's going to be like stable at about the level you saw in Q2 at around 2.1%.”

“We still think that is the right way to think about card fees.”

“And so I think we're going to wind-up within that range.”

“We do not expect any material near term changes to our capital management approach.”

“We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth.”

“Excluding the impact of the Accertify gain, we continue to expect operating expenses for the year to be fairly flat to 2023.”

“Looking forward, I expect variable customer engagement expenses as a ratio of revenues to be in-line with this level for the balance of the year.”

“As we've shared before, we continue to expect this growth to further moderate as we progress through the year.”

“We're pleased with the growth and expect to exit the year with further momentum.”

“we continue to expect revenue growth in-line with our 9% to 11% range for the year.”

“You can rest assured all 40 will or approximately 40 will be done.”

“As Steve discussed, for the full year 2024, we are reaffirming our guidance of having revenue growth of 9% to 11% and earnings per share between $12.65 and $13.15 and we remain committed to running the business for the long-term.”

“Based on our performance and the trends we've seen through the first quarter, we are reaffirming our full year guidance of 9% to 11% revenue growth and EPS of $12.65 to $13.15.”

“And NII at 26% is going to keep moderating because balances are moderating.”

“And it's still expecting that it will pick up a little bit in the balance of your on the back of the things that you said, including the card refreshes and acquiring a lot of premium cards.”

“We still expect the deal to close in the second quarter and plan to provide more detail then.”

“We expect to realize a sizable gain on the sale and to reinvest a substantial portion of the gain back into our business, as we've done with similar transactions in the past.”

“We do not expect any material near term changes to our capital management approach.”

“We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth.”

“We continue to see OpEx as a key source of leverage and are focused on delivering low levels of growth as we have historically done.”

“We are on track to increase marketing spend in 2024 versus last year.”

“Looking forward, I still expect our variable customer engagement expenses to grow slightly higher than our revenue on a full-year basis as we continue to focus on our premium products and drive engagement from our Card Members.”

“And I would remind you that, for our business model, we would not expect to see a meaningful impact from a lower interest rate environment this year.”

“We do expect this growth to continue to moderate as we move through the year.”

“We are pleased with this growth and continue to expect to exit the year with some further momentum reflecting our cycle of product refreshes.”

“We continue to expect this reserve rate to increase a bit as we move through 2024, similar to the modest increases we've seen over the past few quarters.”

“Going forward, we expect to see these delinquency and write-off rates remain strong with some continued modest increase in 2024.”

“As we progress through 2024, we continue to expect this growth to moderate, but to still grow modestly faster than billings.”

“we will continue to be out there aggressively acquiring cardmembers, and that range will be where we see that range today, between 2.9 million, 3.1 million.”

“We are slightly liability sensitive, and the key assumptions for us -- but the common remains that you know in its totality, our total balance sheet and total funding stack level, the impact of rate cuts is going to be very small to our NII.”

“the common remains that you know in its totality, our total balance sheet and total funding stack level, the impact of rate cuts is going to be very small to our NII.”

“we expect billing and therefore discount revenue to grow at a pace similar to what we've seen in the recent quarters.”

“We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate, while supporting our balance sheet growth. We do not expect any material near-term changes to our capital management approach.”

“In Q1 2024, as Steve discussed, we expect to increase our dividend by over 15% to $0.70 per quarter, consistent with our approach of growing our dividend in line with earnings, and our 20 to 25 target payout ratio.”

“Taking everything into account in 2024, we expect total expense to grow mid to high-level digits for the full-year, as we expect to drive continued leverage through our operating expenses.”

“However, we saw demand increase as we moved through the quarter and we continue to plan for increased marketing spend in 2024.”

“In 2024, I would expect our variable customer engagement expenses to grow slightly higher than our revenue, as we continue to focus on our premium products and drive engagement from our card members.”

“And I would remind you that for our business model, we would not expect to see a meaningful impact from the lower interest-rate environment next year.”

“In 2024, we expect to exit the year with some further momentum compared to the current growth supported by continued product innovation and our focus on premium value propositions.”

“we plan to increase our quarterly dividend on common shares outstanding to $0.70 a share, up from $0.60, beginning with the first quarter 2024 dividend declaration.”

“we are assuming at this point in time something consistent with what we've seen in the previous quarters and we'll see where we are at the end of the year.”

“Given this strong set of opportunities, I would expect to increase our marketing spend in the balance of this year and we're confident that our sophisticated acquisition engine will continue to do so in an efficient way.”

“When it comes to card fees, you're right. We have good visibility because we amortize those fees over 12 months. So we see that trend. So you should expect that trend to continue a little bit, i.e., the growth rate to moderate.”

“No, we're committed to the $5.5 billion overall approximately of marketing... so, no, we're not seeing anything at all. That gives us pause. And we will continue to acquire those cards as long as those opportunities are out there. So you will see a higher level of marketing spending in the next quarter.”

“But for now, I don't expect any change to our near-term capital management policies and practices.”

“Taking everything together, our earnings per share guidance remains between $11.00 and $11.40.”

“And lastly, we now expect our operating expenses to be around $14.5 billion this year, modestly above our original expectation as we invest in areas critical to our success.”

“On marketing, we still expect to spend around $5.5 billion for the full year.”

“As I discussed before, we now expect variable Card Member engagement expenses to be around 42% of total revenues on a full year basis, modestly below our original expectation.”

“For the full year, we expect revenue growth of around 15%, consistent with the revenue guidance range we provided at the beginning of the year.”

“We do not expect any material near-term changes to our capital management approach.”

“We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance state growth.”

“Taking this into account, we now expect our full year operating expenses to be around $14.5 billion.”

“I still expect to have marketing spend of around $5.5 billion for the full year, fairly flat to our 2022 expense.”

“For 2023, we expect revenue growth to be within the range we communicated in January at around 15% growth for the full year.”

“We continue to expect this reserve rate to increase a bit in the balance of year, similar to the modest increases we've seen over the past few quarters.”

“Going forward, as we've talked about for many quarters now, we continue to expect this delinquency and write-off rates to increase over time and they are likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter.”

“Taking everything into account, our spending volumes are tracking to support our revenue guidance for the full year and our long-term aspirations for sustainable growth rates greater than what we were generating pre-pandemic.”

“This is reflected in the Q3 growth rate and expect to see the impact of the year-over-year growth rate continue for the next few quarters until we lap this exit.”

“Because it's certainly a possible outcome that there's no change in our target and even a modest change in our target with a 30% plus ROE is not going to have any material impact on share repurchase, or the trajectory of our EPS growth that we've laid out in the growth plan.”

“But I think my overarching message is we don't see it as a material event for this company.”

“So we are reconfirming today, our 2023 full year revenue guidance of 15% to 17% growth with EPS in the range of $11 to $11.40.”

“Based on our performance through the first half, we are reaffirming our guidance for the year of delivering revenue growth of 15% to 17% and EPS of $11 to $11.40.”

“If you combine it with the fact that you still have customers rebuilding balances a little bit on the net interest income side. And you take the noise out on the service fee and other revenue side, you then easily get to a number that is very consistent in the back half of the year with what we've guided for the full year.”

“So I think that will continue to come back.”

“What you're hearing from us is, with the kind of volume growth that you see this quarter, which we think has stabilized, which we think will continue, that is consistent with both the guidance we provided for this year as well as with our longer term growth aspirations.”

“We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth and we don't expect any material near-term changes to our capital management approach, driven by the evolution of these rules.”

“This quarter, you see that, as we expected, we have far less growth in OpEx relative to our high level of revenue growth. And looking forward, we continue to see OpEx as a key source of leverage.”

“Moving to the bottom of Slide 17, brings us to operating expenses which were $3.4 billion in the second quarter, also tracking with our expectation for operating expenses to be around $14 billion for the full year.”

“On the marketing line, we invested $1.4 billion in the quarter, on track with our expectation to have full year marketing spend of around $5.5 billion.”

“Starting with variable customer engagement expenses, these costs came in at 42%, total revenues in the second quarter and are tracking with our expectation for them to run at around 43% of total revenues on a full year basis.”

“So looking forward, we still expect to see revenue growth within our range of 15% to 17% for the full year of 2023.”

“We continue to expect this reserve rate to increase a bit as we move through 2023, while also reflecting the continued premiumization of our portfolio.”

“Going forward, as we've talked about for many quarters now, we continue to expect these delinquency and write-off rates to increase over time, but they are likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2023.”

“Taking all of this into account, spending volumes or tracking to support our revenue guidance for the year and our long-term aspirations for sustainable growth rates greater than what we were seeing pre-pandemic.”

“Looking forward, I would expect this growth rate to remain in the double-digits through the rest of this year.”

“We are now seeing the more stable rates that we expect are more representative of the kind of growth rates we will see in the balance of the year.”

“I think you're still going to see very strong T&E throughout this year. It will certainly outpace our Goods and Services.”

“So look, our company has a ROE of 30% or better. We generate a tremendous amount of capital. We don't need that much capital to support our organic growth. So you'll see us continue to aggressively buy back shares”

“We have grown net card fees in double digits consistently for year's right through every single quarter of the pandemic, and they've been above 20% for the last couple of quarters. That's going to continue”

“For the full year 2023, we are reaffirming our guidance of having revenue growth of 15% to 17% and earnings per share between $11 and $11.40.”

“With our strong capital position, we have both the capacity and the intent to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we regenerate, while supporting our balance sheet growth.”

“Based on our performance to date, we are reaffirming our full year guidance of delivering between 15% and 17% revenue growth and earnings per share of between $11 and $11.40.”

“there really is no reason that should not go back to the way it was. So, we think we have upside in T&E.”

“I think you still have quite a bit to go on T&E and especially as corporations start to bring back their T&E spending as well.”

“there is a step-up this year that flows through various lines in the P&L but generally falls into the variable customer engagement line.”

“our provision this year is kind of back to a steady-state level, whereas last year, you had it still greatly impacted by see its reserve releases. So those are two headwinds in 2020 we will not have in 2024.”

“So, we are where we need to be to manage that, which is why we'd expect sequentially this year to find that OpEx pretty flat.”

“So if you think about it, we expect loan balances to continue to build. We expect credit metrics to continue to moderate up a little bit and that will cause us to continue to build a little bit of reserve each quarter, and all of that is built into the guidance that we're referring today.”

“So, I think as you think about the drivers of revenue growth across the rest of the year, it doesn't look that different than what you saw in the first quarter.”

“And then you have the service fee and other revenue line, which is benefiting from travel-related strength. And I think that will continue.”

“I think our overall loan balance growth will probably continue to be higher than it was pre-pandemic, but moderate a bit as our customer's kind of get through the process of rebuilding balances.”

“discount revenues, when you look forward and look at growth, are going to look about like they did this quarter. I think you'll see a tail-down slightly, because you have a little bit of Omicron tailwind maybe in January and February.”

“At this level, year-over-year revenue growth, we expect to see a significant, sequential increase in the amount of revenues as we go through the year.”

“We continue to see operating expenses as a key source of leverage. And moving forward expect to have far less growth in OpEx relative to our high level of revenue growth.”

“you can see based off our first quarter results that similar to marketing, we are tracking with our expectation for operating expenses to be around $14 billion for the full year.”

“On the marketing line, we invested $1.3 billion in the quarter on track with our expectation to have marketing spend that is fairly flat to our full year 2022 expense, $5.5 billion.”

“these costs came in at 43% of total revenues in the first quarter, tracking right with our expectation for them to run around 43% of total revenues on a full year basis.”

“We expect this reserve rate to continue to increase as we move through 2023, but to remain below pre-pandemic levels.”

“Going forward, we continue to expect these delinquency and write-off rates to increase over time, but they are likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2023.”

“That said, looking forward, you may see the growth rate of our loan balances moderate a bit as we progress through 2023, but we would expect it to remain elevated versus pre-pandemic levels.”

“Overall, our spending volumes are currently tracking to support our revenue guidance for the year and our long-term aspirations for sustainable growth rates greater than what we were seeing pre-pandemic.”

“So I would expect to see growth moderate moving forward, but to remain high given the strong demand we are seeing across geographies, customer types and T&E categories.”

“Our plan calls for quarterly EPS to grow sequentially through the year as our revenue growth continues.”

“Now, net card fees probably moderates a little bit. Net interest income probably accelerates a little bit. But your discount revenue should be pretty consistent with what you would have seen in this quarter.”

“But it’s still above in 2023, I would say the stable level and still above where we were pre pandemic because of that rebuilding process.”

“So I don’t expect to see quite as high a rate next year as you saw in Q4.”

“In Q1 ‘23, as Steve discussed, we do expect to increase our dividend by 15% to $0.60 per quarter, consistent with our approach of growing our dividend decline with earnings and our 20% to 25% target payout ratio.”

“Our best estimate of the effective tax rate in 2023 is between 23% to 24%, absent any legislative changes.”

“Looking forward into 2023, we expect to see revenue growth of 15% to 17%.”

“However, when you think about 2023, deposit betas are now in line with more historical levels. So I would expect the year-over-year impact from rising rates to represent more of a headwind in 2023.”

“Given the combination of our strong loan growth and the unusually low level by historical standards of provision expense in 2022, I would expect a significant year-over-year increase in provision expense.”

“Taking all of this into account, in 2023, you should expect to see provision expense move back towards more of a steady state relative to the size of our loan balances and Card Member receivables for the first time since we adopted CECL in early 2020.”

“At this point, on a dollar basis, most of our spending categories have fully recovered. So I would expect more stable growth rates this year across spending categories with the exception that year-over-year growth rates for T&E spending will likely be elevated in Q1 as we lap the impact of Omicron from the prior year.”

“In addition, we plan to increase our quarterly dividend on common shares outstanding to $0.60 a share, up from $0.52 beginning with the first quarter 2023 dividend declaration.”

“Specifically, we expect revenue growth of 15% to 17%, which is higher than our long-term growth plan aspirations and EPS of $11 to $11.40.”

“And it probably normalizes a little bit as the year goes because people were getting out there and traveling and we got into the second and third quarters.”

“For the full year 2022, we are reaffirming our reported revenue growth guidance of 23% to 25%.”

“I think our expectation is, overtime, and I think it may take a while still you will eventually get back to pre-pandemic types of behavior.”

“Our credit reserve adjustments do include the latest economic forecast, which has unemployment ticking up a little bit next year, and that's included in all of our forward-looking comments.”

“We don't see anything really changing over the next three months.”

“In addition, we are working towards our 2023 plan and expect revenue growth to remain above our long-term aspirational targets, which should create a platform for producing strong EPS growth.”

“We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate, while supporting our balance sheet growth.”

“More generally, we continue to see operating expenses as a key source of leverage moving forward, and we'd expect to have far less growth in OpEx than revenues in our ambitious growth plan.”

“You can see, based off our third quarter results that we are tracking with our expectation for operating expenses to be around $13 billion for the full year.”

“On the marketing line, we invested $1.5 billion in the third quarter, on track with our expectation to spend over $5 billion in 2022.”

“I still expect variable customer engagement costs to run for the full year at around 42% total revenues.”

“Over time, though, I would expect rising rates to represent a modest headwind.”

“I do expect to end the year with a higher level of reserves on our balance sheet and where we ended this quarter given our expected loan growth, the overall level of reserve adjustments will again be influenced by how the macroeconomic evolves in the fourth quarter.”

“Going forward, we continue to expect delinquency and loss rates to move up slowly over time, but to remain below pre-pandemic levels this year.”

“I expect to be above that -- easily above the 10% level on revenue growth next year.”

“We have a plan to get us to -- in 2024 at 10% plus revenue growth on a sustainable basis, which means in 2023, we'll certainly exceed 10%.”

“So now we're going to see 90% year-over-year growth rates, no.”

“For now, though, our EPS guidance remains unchanged from between $9.25 and $9.65.”

“We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth.”

“Taking everything into account, we now expect our full year operating expenses to be around $13 billion, as we invest in our talented colleague base, technology and other key underpinnings of our growth given our tremendously high levels of revenue growth.”

“are tracking with our expectations for variable customer engagement costs to run at around 42% of total revenues on a full year basis.”

“I do expect to end the year with a higher level of reserves on our balance sheet than where we ended this quarter, given our expected loan growth.”

“Going forward, we continue to expect delinquency and loss rates to move up slowly over time, but to remain well below pre-pandemic levels this year.”

“And we don't see demand in the T&E categories declining significantly anytime soon.”

“But the overall range and timing of reserve adjustments will be heavily influenced by how the macroeconomic outlook evolves between now and the end of the year.”

“So I absolutely do expect pre-tax pre-provision net income to be a little bit stronger each quarter as you go through the year.”

“Whether the reserve rate grows is much less clear, and it's probably more going to be a function of where economic forecasts go. Could the reserve rate go lower? Well, I don't think our delinquencies and write-offs are going to go lower.”

“Well, I just emphasize financial location, Steve, of what you just said, which is we are now that growing those lending balances faster than the industry, and we absolutely expect that to continue.”

“For the full year 2022, we are reaffirming our guidance of having revenue growth of 18% to 20% and earnings share between $9.25 and $9.65.”

“And because of quarters like we just had with a record level of new US platinum and Gold Cards on the consumer side and a record level of US business Platinums, I'd expect net car fee growth to probably accelerate even further from where it is.”

“We continue to expect the amount of our volumes, revenues and core earnings to sequentially strengthen throughout the year, driven in part by our pandemic recovery tailwinds.”

“We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth.”

“In any event, I still expect to have far less growth in OpEx compared to revenues and see these costs as a key source of leverage.”

“Operating expenses were $3.1 billion in the first quarter, tracking with our expectation to spend a bit over to $12 billion for the full year.”

“On the marketing line, we invested $1.2 billion in the first quarter, on track with our expectation to spend around $5 billion in 2022.”

“In total, these costs came in at 41% of total revenues for the first quarter and are tracking in line with our expectations for variable customer engagement costs to right around 42% of total revenues for the full year.”

“And looking forward, we still expect to see revenue growth of 18% to 20% for the full year of 2022.”

“First quarter year-over-year net interest income growth of 20%, while very strong, remains slower than the growth in our lending AR, as revolving loan balances continue to rebuild and so we expect net interest income to be a pandemic recovery tailwind to our revenue growth in 2022.”

“And as I said at Investor Day, we expect this to be a pandemic recovery tailwind throughout this year.”

“We would also expect to end the year with a higher level of reserves on our balance sheet than where we ended this quarter, although there could be some quarterly volatility in reserve adjustments throughout the year.”

“Going forward, as loan balances, especially the interest-bearing portion of loan balances, build more meaningfully, we expect delinquency and loss rates to continue to slowly move up over time, but remain below pre-pandemic levels this year.”

“So overall, we are pleased with the growth momentum we see across the board in our spending volumes, which is tracking in line with our expectations for both the year and for our long-term expectations.”

“I would point out that, what I said earlier that, inflation is having some modest positive impact on volumes, it is also putting some pressure on our operating expenses, but we'll have to wait to see how material any impact might be for the full year.”

“Right now, I don't see it as an immediate or medium-term threat to our business.”

“When you start to think about 2024 and you think about revenue growth, you are looking at excess of $6 billion per year in revenue growth.”

“From a tech development perspective, I would say we're flattish as we think about 2022 up a little bit here or there.”

“You'll continue to see a steady level of share repurchase from us each quarter consistent with that kind of earnings generation and that kind of ROE and staying within our 10% to 11% range.”

“We fall a little bit behind that. And so we're catching up really to that level, but that's what shareholders should expect going forward. So the dividend will grow over time as our earnings grow.”

“So we're still going to drive operating expense growth throughout this -- throughout our journey.”

“In Q1 2022, another sign of our growing confidence in our growth prospects, we expect to increase our dividend by around 20% to $0.52 and to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth.”

“These travel-related revenue still remain well below 2019 levels, however and their complete recovery will likely lag and be a tailwind into 2023 along with International and cross-border travel.”

“For T&E, we expect the total global consumer and SME T&E spending will be fully recovered by the end of 2022 led by the growth in the U.S.”

“We may wind up being at a steady state of 80-20.”

“In fact, depending on credit trends and the pace at which our balance sheet grows, it's possible we may need to build some modest level of reserves.”

“The recovery will be slower for the International and cross-border components of the spend, we've also long said that large and global corporate T&E spending would be the last to recover across our customer types. So these spending types may represent a steady tailwind in both '22 and 2023 as they gradually recover.”

“So as we look at it right now, our plan is to continue to be aggressive with our investments, constrained by our investment return models, not constrained by a certain level that people think we should or should not be at.”