82.8 /100
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
HEALTHCARE · 131 verified grades · · BalancedBIASMedian signed deviation across numeric graded claims. Sandbags: outcomes land favorable to guidance. Overpromises: the opposite. Needs at least 6 numeric claims.
What management is on the hook for (386)
hedged · expects · high conviction
2026 Q3 (27)27 open
AWAITS REPORTVERDICTThe period has ended; the company has not reported it yet.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we're looking forward to iberdomide's PDUFA date in a few weeks and the team is launch ready.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As in prior years, we anticipate the typical summer demand patterns to moderate growth in the third quarter.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We intend to achieve both numbers before locking the database and having the readout because the primary endpoint is critical and the bleeding superiority test is also important. We remain on track for both and expect the readout in the first quarter of 2027.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We're confident both iberdomide and mezigdomide will drive strong growth.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Based on this first half momentum and confidence in our second half outlook, we are raising our full year guidance for both revenue and adjusted diluted EPS.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Based on the strength of our results, we are increasing our full year 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“This is a very important readout and it is guided to the end of this year.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We still expect the $1.5 billion to $2 billion step down in 2027 that we referenced on the Q1 call, and we'll provide any appropriate updates with our 2027 guidance when issued.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We anticipate Eliquis sales this year to grow roughly 20% to 25% year-over-year.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We look forward to the SLE readout this year as it could catalyze brand growth.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Overall, we expect Cobenfy to grow consistently throughout the year with significant upside through a very broad life-cycle management program.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“PFS data should be available within a few months after approval, which will help accelerate uptake as some physicians want to see PFS data before adopting.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our goal is to make iberdomide and mezigdomide foundational in multiple myeloma, replacing Rev and Pom in second line over time.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“PPF reads out a few months after IPF, in the same general timeframe early next year.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“ADEPT-1 will be the first interim analysis to read out by the end of this year or the beginning of next year.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have slightly increased our projected operating expenses for the year to account for accelerated prelaunch activities, supporting our CELMoDs, iberdomide and mezigdomide, the expanding pumitamig development program and opportunities to further support the growth portfolio.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“a less pronounced total legacy portfolio revenue decrease now expected to be between 4% and 6%.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Incorporated into these revisions are projected higher Eliquis revenue growth of 20% to 25% and a less pronounced total legacy portfolio revenue decrease now expected to be between 4% and 6%.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a result of the price decrease implemented at the start of the year, U.S. second half sales are expected to benefit from the elimination of the accumulated CPI penalty in certain government channels.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we also anticipate over 30 meaningful life cycle management opportunities during that same period.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“the potential to introduce more than 10 new medicines by the end of the decade, including iberdomide and mezigdomide, both of which have upcoming PDUFA dates.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we continue to actively plan our previously announced Phase III study evaluating Camzyos in patients with nonobstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and expect to initiate the study by the end of the year.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we anticipate reading out in the first half of 2027.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we now anticipate top line data readouts from the ADEPT program to begin in early 2027 and be spread across the year with the potential interim analysis for ADEPT-1 later this year.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For milvexian, we now expect the atrial fibrillation study to read out in the first quarter of 2027.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we continue to expect pivotal readouts across our therapeutic areas by the end of this year.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.CONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“this is roughly a $4 billion market; with improved treatments it could grow significantly, potentially doubling to $8 billion to $10 billion by the mid-2030s.”
Test pending
2026 Q2 (16)16 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We anticipate this build to reverse in the second quarter.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Based on what we have seen in other trials recently and based on the expectation and how we size and power the study, I think we are very much on track with both the endpoints to show non-inferiority and superiority in bleedings.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Trial results for the AFib Phase 3 study (likely factor XIa inhibitor vs. apixaban): non-inferiority on the primary efficacy endpoint and superiority on bleeding endpoint
Study meets statistical non-inferiority vs. apixaban on primary efficacy endpoint AND achieves statistically significant superiority on bleeding reduction SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release of trial results / presentation at medical conference / peer-reviewed publicationKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain confident in our expectations that physicians will convert approximately 30% to 40% of IV business in the next 2 years.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Percentage of IV business converted (to the relevant alternative formulation, e.g. subcutaneous) by physicians, as reported by the company
Reported conversion rate falls between 30% and 40% at or around the 2-year mark SourceWHERE TO FIND ITManagement commentary on quarterly earnings calls / investor presentations (BMY)KNOWABLE AFTER2028-04-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for the full year of 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Full-year 2026 total revenue and EPS (non-GAAP), as reported vs. company's established guidance range issued for FY2026
Full-year 2026 revenue and EPS fall within (and toward the upper end of) the previously issued FY2026 guidance range SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release / 10-K full-year 2026 results and guidance reconciliation (Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain on track to deliver the remainder of our $2 billion in cost savings from our strategic productivity initiative by the end of 2027.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative cost savings realized from the strategic productivity initiative, as disclosed by the company
Cumulative disclosed savings >= $2 billion by end of 2027 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany management commentary / investor presentations and earnings calls (BMY)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For the moment, we are on track for a year-end readout.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Disclosure of topline/readout data for the trial referenced
Company or partner announces readout (topline results disclosed) on or before 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release, earnings call, or clinicaltrials.gov posting of resultsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So I want to announce that we are planning now to run a new more focused study in non-obstructive HCM.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Announcement or initiation of a new focused clinical study of Camzyos (mavacamten) in non-obstructive HCM
Company confirms initiation (e.g., trial registration on ClinicalTrials.gov, or study start disclosed in company communications/filings) of a new non-obstructive HCM study by the stated deadline SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov), or BMY quarterly earnings call commentaryKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“IPPF is guided by the end of the year. PPF will be just a few months later, probably beginning '27”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Announcement of topline Phase III trial results for admilparant (BMS-986278) in IPF and in PPF
IPF Phase III readout disclosed by 2026-12-31; PPF Phase III readout disclosed between 2027-01-01 and 2027-06-30 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases / management commentary on quarterly earnings calls (BMY)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-06-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In neuroscience, we continue to expect the ADP studies, a den, 2 and 4 by readouts by the end of the year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Readout announcement for ADP (Alzheimer's disease psychosis) studies ADEPT-2 and ADEPT-4
Company or trial registry discloses topline readout results for both ADEPT-2 and ADEPT-4 studies by the stated deadline SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release, quarterly earnings call, or clinicaltrials.gov posting of resultsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Moving cardiovascular milvexian, as you was mentioning, are importantly doubt, both AFib and SSP are continue to be expected by the end of the year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Announcement/readout of milvexian Phase 3 trial data (Librexia AFib and/or Librexia SSP)
At least one topline readout (AFib or SSP) publicly disclosed by company on or before 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release / earnings call commentary on milvexian trial resultsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Based upon the first quarter results and our current projections, we see our financial performance tracking towards the upper end of our established revenue and EPS guidance from us.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Full-year 2026 total revenue and non-GAAP EPS, as reported
Full-year revenue and EPS each fall in the upper half of the previously established full-year 2026 guidance ranges SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release / 10-K full-year 2026 results and guidance reconciliationKNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect this to be more than offset later in the year through lower rebate payments.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Full-year operating cash flow (or net cash collections impact from Eliquis rebates/list price), FY2026
Full-year 2026 operating cash flow shows improvement in later quarters consistent with lower rebate payments offsetting the Q1 ~$1.2 billion headwind from Eliquis list price reductions SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany cash flow statement (10-K/10-Q filings and quarterly earnings calls, FY2026)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In summary, based on our performance, we see the business currently tracking towards the upper end of our guidance ranges.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Full-year 2026 actual results (e.g., revenue and/or EPS) versus company's issued full-year guidance range
Full-year actual results land in the upper portion (top third) of the previously issued guidance range, or subsequent guidance raises confirm upper-end tracking SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases/quarterly earnings reports and full-year guidance updates (10-K, Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Over time, we expect these efforts to deliver a 30% reduction in cycle times versus just a few years ago.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Clinical development cycle times (as reported by company in R&D commentary)
30% reduction in cycle times versus baseline from a few years prior SourceWHERE TO FIND ITmanagement commentary on earnings calls / investor presentations discussing R&D productivity metricsKNOWABLE AFTER2029-04-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have set a target to reach lead molecule identification approximately 50% faster while applying greater rigor so that only the most differentiated molecules advance.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Time to reach lead molecule identification (internal R&D cycle-time metric for early discovery phase)
Company-reported reduction in lead molecule identification timeline >= 40% faster versus baseline (approaching the ~50% target) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITmanagement commentary on R&D productivity metrics in company presentations, investor days, or earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We anticipate these readouts will help us further diversify and broaden our portfolio and are part of our efforts to deliver more than 10 new medicines and 30 meaningful life cycle management opportunities by the end of the decade.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative count of new medicine approvals and life cycle management indication/label expansions delivered by the company since goal announcement
New medicines approved >= 10 AND life cycle management opportunities delivered >= 30, by end of decade SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed pipeline/portfolio milestones (investor presentations, 10-K, press releases on approvals and label expansions)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
2026 Q1 (36)36 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We also expect an all-commerce indication in Europe in Q2 which will drive significant growth internationally.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As it relates to quarterly phasing, we expect our typical sequential revenue decrease in the first quarter due to the seasonal inventory destocking we see each year following the build in the fourth quarter.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.competitionCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we remain very confident in our expectation that physicians will convert 30% to 40% of the IV business ahead of the LOE.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Percentage of IV business converted (by physicians) to the relevant alternative ahead of loss of exclusivity, as disclosed by the company
Reported conversion rate falls between 30% and 40% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany management commentary (earnings call/investor presentation) discussing IV-to-alternative conversion ahead of LOEKNOWABLE AFTER2028-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“got really solid line of sight into the additional $1 billion which will be spread over 'twenty six and 'twenty seven.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative cost savings achieved under the $2 billion strategic productivity initiative
Cumulative savings reach approximately $2 billion by end of FY2027 (i.e., additional ~$1 billion realized on top of the prior $1 billion, spread across 2026 and 2027) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed productivity/cost savings updates (10-K/10-Q filings, earnings calls, investor presentations)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we are fully on track on this and the study is coming this year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Public disclosure/completion of the Milvexian AFib (or relevant Phase 3) study readout as announced by the company
Company announces topline study data or completion within calendar year 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release / clinical trial results disclosure (e.g., investor call, press release, clinicaltrials.gov update)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And taken together, the continued increase in Eliquis market share in the United States coupled with these net pricing changes they're gonna enable Eliquis to be an important driver of growth this year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Eliquis revenue growth (year-over-year), fiscal year 2026
Full-year 2026 Eliquis revenue growth > 0% versus fiscal year 2025 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-reported product revenue (BMS 10-K / quarterly earnings releases, Eliquis line item)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.competitionCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We have approximately 75% anorex share in the U.S. And we will continue to grow that.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Eliquis (or NOAC-class) U.S. market share as reported by management
U.S. share > 75% (i.e., higher than the stated ~75% baseline) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITmanagement commentary on earnings calls (Q1-Q4 2026) or company-disclosed market share dataKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Let me start by saying that we continue to see strong performance with Eliquis. And this performance will continue throughout 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Eliquis global (or U.S.) net sales / revenue growth, reported quarterly through FY2026
Eliquis net sales growth year-over-year > 0% in each reported quarter of FY2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings release / 10-Q and 10-K product revenue disclosuresKNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“The Adept program is coming by the end of the year as we guided.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Disclosure/readout of the Adept program (milestone completion, e.g., topline data or regulatory submission as guided)
Company confirms Adept program milestone (data readout/submission) occurs on or before 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release or earnings call management commentary (BMY Q4 2026 call or press releases)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So IPF is coming this year, is closer. Actually, we'd be very, very closer compared to what we guided before.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Timing of IPF (Amiparantha/ambrisentan-related Phase III) readout disclosure
Company announces or discloses the IPF Phase III readout on or before 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release or earnings call management commentaryKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“and are on track to realize the remaining billion dollars over 2026 and 2027.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative savings realized from the $2 billion strategic productivity initiative (incremental to the ~$1 billion already achieved in 2025)
Additional realized savings >= $1 billion by end of 2027, as disclosed cumulatively in company commentary/filings SourceWHERE TO FIND ITManagement commentary on productivity initiative (quarterly earnings calls / 10-K disclosures) 2026-2027KNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.competitionCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“When we look at in totality, you're right. Roughly 70% of the Eliquis business is in The US... And so we expect in November that we will lose exclusivity in Europe, and we would expect rapid and steep decline like we have seen with other small molecules outside of The US.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Eliquis ex-US (Europe) revenue, following loss of exclusivity in November 2026
Europe Eliquis revenue declines sharply (>=50% year-over-year) within two quarters after November 2026 LOE SourceWHERE TO FIND ITcompany-disclosed Eliquis revenue by region (10-K/10-Q or quarterly earnings materials)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-06-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So overall, we see continued solid growth for Reblozyl in first line this year and we expect strong performance.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Reblozyl total net product sales, fiscal year 2026
FY2026 Reblozyl revenue growth > FY2025 reported revenue (year-over-year increase) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual income statement product revenue disclosures (10-K/10-Q or earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we see opportunities to increase sales of Ophalaag in The U. S. And as well as ex U. S. With broader label.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Opdualag (Ophalaag) net product sales, US and international, annual
FY2026 total Opdualag revenue higher than FY2025 reported figure SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual revenue disclosures (10-K/10-Q product revenue tables, earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we do expect to see continued cash flow from this important product for patients.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Orencia (abatacept) net product sales/revenue
Orencia revenue for FY2026 >= FY2025 reported revenue (i.e., year-over-year growth, not a decline) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual earnings release and 10-K product revenue disclosuresKNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We feel really good about the growth portfolio, mid-single-digit growth.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Growth portfolio revenue growth rate, year-over-year, fiscal 2026
Growth portfolio revenue growth between 3% and 7% (mid-single-digit) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual earnings release and segment disclosure (growth portfolio revenue, 10-K/10-Q or earnings call commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I think that growth is going to continue into this year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total revenue growth year-over-year, fiscal year 2026
Full-year 2026 total revenue growth > 0% versus fiscal year 2025 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement (10-K / Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We currently expect 2027 Eliquis sales compared to 2026 to show a step down in the range of $1.5 to $2 billion, which is broadly consistent with analysts' existing estimates.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Eliquis annual revenue, 2027 vs 2026 (company-reported)
2026 Eliquis revenue minus 2027 Eliquis revenue falls between $1.5 billion and $2 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany financial disclosures (10-K / earnings release product revenue tables) for fiscal years 2026 and 2027KNOWABLE AFTER2028-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“First, anticipate that the second-half revenue will trend higher than the first half of the year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Eliquis revenue, second half 2026 (Q3+Q4) vs first half 2026 (Q1+Q2)
Second-half 2026 Eliquis revenue > first-half 2026 Eliquis revenue SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings releases/10-Q disclosures of Eliquis product revenue (Q1-Q4 2026)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Considering these factors, we expect to deliver non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $6.05 to $6.35.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share, full fiscal year 2026
Full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS between $6.05 and $6.35 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / non-GAAP reconciliation in Q4 2026 earnings release or 10-KKNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect to maintain our tax rate of approximately 18%.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Full-year 2026 effective (non-GAAP) tax rate
Reported tax rate between 17.0% and 19.0% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / non-GAAP reconciliation (10-K or Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are expecting our OI and E expense of approximately $700 million, which reflects the expiry of our royalty-bearing license of diabetes products at the end of 2025.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Other income and expense (OI&E), non-GAAP, full-year 2026
Approximately $700 million (within $650-$750 million) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany non-GAAP income statement / reconciliation (10-K or Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Even with these investments, we expect to reduce costs year over year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total operating expenses, non-GAAP, fiscal year 2026
FY2026 non-GAAP total operating expenses <= FY2025 non-GAAP total operating expenses (approximately $16.3 billion or lower) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany non-GAAP income statement / earnings release (10-K, Q4 2026 earnings call)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect total operating expenses to decline from 2025 levels to approximately $16.3 billion.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total non-GAAP operating expenses, full year 2026
Approximately $16.3 billion (within $15.9-16.7 billion range) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany non-GAAP financial reconciliation / full-year 2026 earnings release (10-K / Q4 2026 call)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect our gross margin to be between 69 to 70%.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Non-GAAP gross margin, full fiscal year 2026
Full-year non-GAAP gross margin between 69% and 70% SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany non-GAAP financial reconciliation (10-K / Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we continue to expect steady growth throughout the year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cobenfy quarterly revenue (as reported by BMY)
Each subsequent quarterly revenue figure in 2026 higher than the prior quarter's reported figure (sequential growth in each quarter) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings releases / financial supplements (BMY Q1-Q4 2026)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Most of these readouts will occur in the second half of the year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Count of the listed registrational/pivotal readouts (nilvexin AFib and secondary stroke prevention, admilparant IPF, iberdomide, mezigdomide, arlocell, and reizetostam second-line+ DLBCL, plus line-extension readouts for SOTYKTU in lupus and Cobenfy in Alzheimer's disease psychosis) that are reported in H2 2026 versus H1 2026, based on company disclosure of data readout timing
Majority (more than half) of the readouts disclosed as occurring in H2 2026 (July-December) rather than H1 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases and quarterly earnings calls (Q2, Q3, Q4 2026) disclosing timing of these specific clinical readoutsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“This year alone, we expect to report top-line registrational data for six potential new products.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of distinct potential new products for which the company reports top-line registrational (pivotal) trial data during the year
Count of products with reported top-line registrational data >= 6 (specifically among/including nilvexin [AFib & secondary stroke prevention], admilparent, iberdomide, mozignamide, arlocell, and rezolotamab/RA-101) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases and management commentary on quarterly earnings calls (Q1-Q4 2026)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we expect adjusted diluted earnings per share of between $6.05 and $6.35.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Adjusted diluted earnings per share, full fiscal year 2026
Adjusted diluted EPS between $6.05 and $6.35 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / non-GAAP reconciliation (10-K or Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect lower operating expenses compared to last year, due to our ongoing cost savings program.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total operating expenses, full fiscal year 2026, as reported (e.g., sum of cost of products sold, marketing/selling/admin, R&D, and other operating expense line items)
FY2026 total operating expenses < FY2025 total operating expenses SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement in 10-K / Q4 2026 earnings releaseKNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Within the legacy portfolio, we project Eliquis growth this year to be in the range of 10% to 15%.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Eliquis revenue growth rate, full-year 2026 vs full-year 2025
Full-year 2026 Eliquis revenue growth between 10% and 15% year-over-year SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed product revenue (10-K / Q4 2026 earnings release, product revenue breakdown)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“This range reflects continued strong performance from our growth portfolio and a projected revenue decline for our legacy portfolio of between 12-16% given the ongoing LOE impacts.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Legacy portfolio revenue year-over-year decline, fiscal year 2026
Legacy portfolio revenue decline between 12% and 16% versus fiscal year 2025 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed segment/product revenue breakdown (10-K / Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We currently anticipate 2026 revenue in the range of $46 to $47.5 billion.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total company revenue, fiscal year 2026
Full-year 2026 revenue between $46 billion and $47.5 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement (10-K / Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we expect this steady growth to continue throughout the year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cobenfy quarterly sales/revenue growth trend across 2026
Cobenfy quarterly revenue increases sequentially (or maintains positive quarter-over-quarter growth) in each reported quarter of fiscal 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly earnings releases / 10-Q product revenue disclosures (BMY)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.competitionCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“But also we have the risk of like a Red Sea and generics coming this year, which would impact that growth portfolio.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Growth portfolio revenue growth rate, full year, versus mid-single-digit guidance framing
Full-year growth portfolio revenue growth < mid-single-digit range (i.e., below approximately 3-5%), attributable in commentary to generic erosion impact SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual earnings release and segment revenue disclosures (10-K/10-Q, Q4 2026 call)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“we could have over 10 Phase three data readouts this year alone with more coming in '27 and then another big slew of them coming in 2028.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of Phase 3 data readouts announced/reported by the company during the year
Count of distinct Phase 3 readouts disclosed >= 10 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, quarterly earnings calls, and pipeline updates (10-K/10-Q disclosures) for fiscal year 2026KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
2025 Q4 (28)28 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“As far as IRA, no, there was no plan to revisit Eliquis negotiation, and that price will be effectuated January 1.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“What I will say is if you look historically, all the recently launched D2s, we are tracking ahead of all recently launched analogs in schizophrenia. So based on everything that we're seeing, we feel good about the performance for Cobenfy. We're going to continue to see steady growth and the inflection will come as we continue to add new indications.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cobenfy (KarXT) quarterly net product sales / prescription trends as reported by BMY
Cobenfy quarterly net sales show sequential growth in each of the next 4 reported quarters (i.e., no quarter-over-quarter decline) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITBMY quarterly earnings releases / 10-Q product revenue disclosuresKNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“based on the leading indicators that we're seeing, Cobenfy is going to deliver continued steady growth in schizophrenia and longer-term growth is going to be fueled by additional indications”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cobenfy weekly total prescriptions (TRx), as disclosed by the company
Weekly TRx figure higher than the ~2,400 level reported as of October 2025 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosure (quarterly earnings call / investor presentation) of Cobenfy weekly TRx trendsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-30
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We believe that this -- the price will be made public at the latest, November 30.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As far as Part D redesign, for Eliquis, we are seeing a more even distribution of sales like we talked about throughout this year. We expect to see similar in the Q4 time frame as the coverage gap has been removed.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have a Phase IV switch study that reads out early next year, all will help build physician confidence.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“and we expect to see continued steady growth.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“First, I will reiterate that we expect results by the end of the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Due to the strong performance year-to-date, we now expect global Opdivo sales together with Qvantig to deliver stronger growth than previously guided, with sales expected to increase in the high single-digit to low double-digit range for the full year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we are narrowing our expected EPS range for 2025 to be between $6.40 and $6.60, which leaves the midpoint of our range unchanged.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are maintaining our full year tax guidance of approximately 18%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Regarding OI&E, we now expect annual income of approximately $500 million due to higher-than-anticipated royalties, licensing income and favorable interest income.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“our operating expense guidance also remains unchanged at approximately $16.5 billion, reflecting over $1 billion in net savings versus 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our gross margin guidance for the year remains unchanged at approximately 72%”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“our Revlimid sales expectation remain at approximately $3 billion”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to expect the legacy portfolio to decline approximately 15% to 17% for the year”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are increasing our full year revenue guidance by $750 million at the midpoint to a range of $47.5 billion to $48 billion, primarily reflecting continued strong performance of our growth portfolio.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.regulationCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So again, we don't feel like this will have any impact on the company and the outlook of the company.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Company financial outlook/guidance impact attributable to Pomalyst IRA-negotiated Maximum Fair Price, effective January 2027
Management does not attribute any reduction to full-year revenue guidance or outlook specifically to the Pomalyst MFP/IRA negotiation outcome in subsequent earnings calls or guidance updates SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany guidance commentary and earnings call transcripts (FY2026-FY2027 outlook statements)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-03-01
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And I'd say, overall, we have clear line of sight to the pushes and pulls of '26, and I feel confident in our ability to manage the cost base.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total operating cost base (as referenced by company, e.g., total costs and expenses) for fiscal year 2026
FY2026 cost base <= $16.5 billion (i.e., flat to down versus the guided 2025 level) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / 10-K disclosure and management commentary on Q4 2026 earnings callKNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We're on track for $1 billion this year, and we have clear line of sight to the $2 billion that we're targeting by 2027.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative cost savings / efficiency program savings, as disclosed by company
Full-year 2025 savings >= $1 billion, and cumulative run-rate savings >= $2 billion by end of 2027 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany earnings releases and management commentary (quarterly calls / investor presentations) on cost savings programKNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We were able to, if you've seen clinicaltrials.gov, accelerate now the readout of atrial fibrillation for milvexian, which is the largest opportunity for the product. So now we expect all 3 studies to read out in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of milvexian Phase III studies (including atrial fibrillation) with reported topline readouts
All 3 milvexian Phase III studies read out by 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases / clinicaltrials.gov status updates / BMS earnings call commentaryKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“ACS, SSP are planned next year, and we are really pleased that we can complete the atrial fibrillation study next year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Completion/readout status of milvexian trials: ACS (Librexia ACS), SSP (Librexia STROKE), and atrial fibrillation (Librexia AF)
Company or clinical trial registry reports study completion or topline readout for at least the atrial fibrillation study by 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, clinicaltrials.gov status updates, or BMS earnings call commentaryKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The readout, as you know, is projected next year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
ADEPT-4 pivotal trial topline readout disclosure
Company announces or publishes ADEPT-4 topline results (via press release, presentation, or earnings call) at any point during calendar year 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases and earnings call transcripts (BMY)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We plan to initiate pivotal studies in autism spectrum irritability in next year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Initiation of pivotal study/studies in autism spectrum irritability for Cobenfy
At least one pivotal study in autism spectrum irritability is initiated (dosing first patient or listed as active/recruiting) between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, clinical trial registry (ClinicalTrials.gov), or management commentary on quarterly earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a reminder, over the next 12 to 24 months alone, we expect data for 7 new molecular entities and 7 meaningful life cycle management opportunities.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Count of new molecular entity (NME) data readouts and life cycle management (LCM) data readouts disclosed by the company
At least 7 NME data readouts and 7 LCM data readouts reported within the window SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, earnings calls, and pipeline updates (management commentary on quarterly calls / investor presentations)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-10-30
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The pace of pivotal readouts will accelerate in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of pivotal (Phase III) clinical trial data readouts announced by the company
Count of pivotal readouts in 2026 exceeds the count of pivotal readouts in 2025 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases and quarterly earnings calls disclosing pivotal trial data readoutsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We anticipate needing 2 of these 3 studies to read out positively to support regulatory approval.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of positive readouts among ADEPT-2 and the two Alzheimer's disease psychosis Cobenfy studies
SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases / management commentary on quarterly earnings calls disclosing trial resultsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to anticipate data readout for ADEPT-2 by the end of this year and have 2 additional Cobenfy studies in Alzheimer's disease psychosis, both of which are expected to read out next year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Announcement of ADEPT-2 (Cobenfy in Alzheimer's disease psychosis) clinical trial data readout
Company or press announces ADEPT-2 topline data on or before 2025-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release / quarterly earnings call disclosures on Cobenfy ADEPT-2 trialKNOWABLE AFTER2025-12-31
2025 Q3 (28)28 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're going to deliver $1 billion of that this year, which we said that $2 billion by 2027 will drop to the bottom line.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We've continued to deliver strong growth with Camzyos. We're very pleased with performance as we've continued to increase new patient starts, and we've established a strong revenue base, and we expect that to continue from the expansion of our prescriber base, coupled with high persistency.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But with that said, we are still targeting the top line data by the end of the year for ADEPT-2.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect to see steady TRx growth as we continue to execute our plan.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The launch of Cobenfy is tracking as we expected, weekly total prescriptions continued to grow, and we expect continued steady growth with sales in the second half of the year higher than the first half.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect strong second half with sales skewed more towards the fourth quarter as the third quarter normalizes.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Due to the strong performance year-to-date, we now expect global Opdivo sales together with Qvantig to deliver stronger growth in the mid- to high single-digit range for the full year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“After including these charges of $0.57 per share, primarily related to the BioNTech partnership, our expected EPS for 2025 is now projected to be between $6.35 and $6.65.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For OI&E, we now expect annual income of approximately $250 million due to higher-than-anticipated royalties and favorable interest income and we're maintaining our full year tax rate guidance of approximately 18%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our operating margin target of approximately 37% for the full year remains unchanged.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As previously guided, our operating expenses are anticipated to be higher in the second half of the year compared to the first half, reflecting timing of investments, including the recently signed BD deals.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are adjusting our operating expense guidance to increase slightly to approximately $16.5 billion, reflecting investment behind recent business development deals, and additional investment opportunities within our growth portfolio.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We maintain our gross margin guidance at approximately 72% as some of our high-margin legacy brands are expected to continue to decline through the second half of the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We now project full year Revlimid sales of approximately $3 billion.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Additionally, we now expect the legacy portfolio to decline approximately 15% to 17% for the year, a more moderate rate than previously anticipated due primarily to Revlimid's strong year-to-date performance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're increasing our full year reported revenue guidance by $700 million at the midpoint to a range of $46.5 billion to $47.5 billion, reflecting continued strong performance of our growth portfolio, better-than-expected legacy sales in the second quarter and a favorable impact of approximately $200 million related to foreign exchange rates.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are on track with our plan to further delever our balance sheet and pay down $10 billion of debt by the first half of 2026 relative to our March 31, 2024, balance and we remain committed to returning capital to shareholders through our dividend.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The study in first-line triple-negative breast cancer is expected to begin later this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we're also expecting to see MRD negativity data in-house later this year and PFS data next year from the Phase III EXCALIBER study of iberdomide.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Sjogren's is the other one. The good news is these studies are enrolling really well, and we look forward to the readouts towards the back end of next year onwards.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Announcement/disclosure of Sjogren's syndrome Phase III trial readout (topline data)
At least one Sjogren's Phase III readout publicly disclosed by company on or after late 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release, clinicaltrials.gov results posting, or earnings call/management commentaryKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we said that $2 billion by 2027 will drop to the bottom line.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative pre-tax cost savings from strategic productivity initiative, dropped to bottom line, since 2025 announcement through 2027
Cumulative savings reported >= $2 billion by fiscal year 2027 (with >= $1 billion achieved in 2025) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures on productivity/cost savings initiatives (10-K, earnings calls, investor presentations)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But also recall, we've guided Eliquis. And as that comes down and goes generic in '28, that's another factor that will really help our gross margins improve as we go towards the back half of the decade.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Company gross margin (%), full fiscal year
Reported gross margin for FY2028 or FY2029 higher than FY2027 reported gross margin SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement (10-K)KNOWABLE AFTER2029-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But also, let's not forget gross margins. We're going through a period right now of gross margin declines as some of our higher legacy margin products like Revlimid and Pomalyst come down have provided gross margin pressures. But then on the other side, as time progresses over the next few years, you're going to see gross margins will begin to improve driven by 2 things.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Company gross margin (gross profit as % of total revenue), annual
Gross margin % higher in FY2027 than in FY2025 (i.e., multi-year improvement trend confirmed by FY2027 reported figure) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement (10-K), annual gross margin disclosureKNOWABLE AFTER2028-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“ADEPT-4 and ADEPT-1 will read out in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Top-line data readout status for ADEPT-4 and ADEPT-1 clinical trials
Both ADEPT-4 and ADEPT-1 top-line data announced/reported during calendar year 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, quarterly earnings calls, or SEC filings (8-K/10-K/10-Q) disclosing ADEPT-4 and ADEPT-1 trial resultsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Additionally, in immunology, we are also now enrolling patients in a pivotal Phase II study for our CD19 NEX-T cell therapy in severe refractory lupus. Data readouts are expected to continue next year and throughout the end of the decade, providing an increasing line of sight into the strength of our pipeline.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Disclosure of clinical data readout(s) for the CD19 NEX-T cell therapy pivotal Phase II study in severe refractory lupus
At least one data readout for this program is publicly disclosed (press release, conference presentation, or publication) during 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, quarterly earnings calls, or medical conference presentations (e.g., ACR, EULAR) referencing the CD19 NEX-T lupus programKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Data for admilparant, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is expected next year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Announcement or disclosure of Phase III trial data readout for admilparant (BMS-986278) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis
Company or clinical trial disclosure of top-line data results for the IPF Phase III study occurs on or before 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release, quarterly earnings call commentary, or clinicaltrials.gov study results postingKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect readouts for milvexian in acute coronary syndrome and secondary stroke prevention next year and for atrial fibrillation in 2027.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Announcement of topline/readout data for milvexian Phase III trials in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and secondary stroke prevention
Company or trial sponsor discloses topline readout results for at least one of the milvexian ACS or secondary stroke prevention trials by 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, quarterly earnings calls/presentations, or clinicaltrials.gov results postings for the milvexian Phase III program (Librexia ACS/Librexia STROKE)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In the next 12 to 24 months alone, we expect 7 registration assets and 7 meaningful life cycle management opportunities.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Count of registration-enabling pipeline assets and life cycle management opportunities disclosed by the company
Company reports cumulative total of at least 7 registration assets AND at least 7 meaningful life cycle management opportunities achieved/disclosed within the window SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany pipeline updates, investor presentations, or earnings call commentary (BMY R&D pipeline disclosures)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-07-31
2025 Q2 (32)32 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“As a result of these changes, we are raising the midpoint 2025 non-GAAP EPS guidance by 15¢ per share, with an expected range between $6.70 and $7.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Our operating margin target of approximately 37% for the full year remains unchanged.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We are increasing our full-year revenue guidance to a range of $45.8 billion to $46.8 billion, reflecting strong performance of our growth portfolio, better-than-expected legacy sales in the first quarter, and a favorable impact of approximately $500 million related to foreign exchange rates relative to our previous 2025 guidance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And we remain on track to deliver $1 billion of these savings by the end of this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“All of that data is what we are expecting to see as we look towards the back end of this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We'll get that J code July 1 issued and thus we expect the second half ramp.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The data will read out for the first trial in the second half of this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But again, we expect to see strong uptake over the course of the year with a ramp taking place in the back half of 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we expect to see increases this year in gross-to-net for the full year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And so as we've said, we expect to see strong uptake over the course of 2025 with a ramp in the back half of the year after we continue to increase the frequency of calls to our customers try to break those reflective habits.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I will say that we're just super early in the launch, but early customer feedback has been very positive since the label change and taken together we're seeing good momentum for Camzyos and we expect continued strong growth.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“There is, of course, ADAPT, which is very eagerly awaited... a small opportunity would be in myelofibrosis, that will read out later this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to believe that physicians will convert approximately 30% to 40% of patients to this new product.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We do not expect these data to significantly impact peak sales, and our focus remains on our existing obstructive HCM indication, which represents the vast majority of the market opportunity.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We also plan to initiate several new pivotal studies this year, including seven phase three studies for Cobenfi across three indications: Alzheimer's agitation, Alzheimer's cognition impairment, and bipolar one, all expected to be underway by midyear.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect several of these opportunities to come this year, such as the first look at one of the phase three trials for Cobenfi in Alzheimer's disease psychosis, where there is significant unmet need.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.macro economyCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our revised guidance includes the estimated impact of current tariffs on US products shipped to China but does not account for any potential pharmaceutical sector tariffs.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Although the first-quarter tax rate was slightly lower than our full-year projection, we're maintaining our full-year tax rate guidance of 18%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For OI and E, we now expect annual income of approximately $100 million due to higher-than-anticipated royalties and favorable interest income.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Expenses are now anticipated to be higher in the second half of the year compared to the first half, reflecting the timing of investments.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to expect underlying operating expenses to be approximately $16 billion, with an additional impact of about $200 million due to foreign exchange rates.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We maintain our gross margin guidance at approximately 72%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We now project full-year sales of Revlimid to be at the top end of our previously guided range, $2 billion to $2.5 billion.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Additionally, we now expect the legacy portfolio to decline approximately 16% to 18% for the year, a more moderate rate than previously anticipated due primarily to Revlimid's strong Q1 performance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to expect total Eliquis revenue to be stronger in the second half of the year, primarily due to the Part D redesign and elimination of the coverage gap.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to expect steady growth of Camzyos in 2025 due to its compelling efficacy and safety profile in obstructive HCM.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And do that certainly by the time we exit this decade.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Return to sustained long-term revenue growth (company-reported total revenue trend, exiting trough period)
Total revenue growth resumes and is sustained (positive year-over-year growth in at least two consecutive fiscal years) by fiscal year 2029 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / annual report (10-K) revenue figures and management commentary on earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2029-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“This event-driven study remains on track to read out in 2027.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Milvexian Librexia atrial fibrillation trial (event-driven study) readout status
Topline results announced/disclosed by company by 2027-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release or earnings call disclosure of Librexia-AF trial resultsKNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We've already communicated. We still look forward to the readout for the ACN SSP trial in 2026, and then AF is in 2027.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Disclosure of topline/readout results for the ACS SSP (acute coronary syndrome) trial and the AF (atrial fibrillation) trial
Company or trial sponsor publicly reports readout/topline data for the SSP trial during 2026, and for the AF trial during 2027 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, earnings call commentary, and clinicaltrials.gov posting of trial resultsKNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And then in 2026, there's a slew of readouts for new molecular.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of new molecular entity (NME) clinical trial readouts disclosed by the company in 2026
At least 3 distinct NME readouts announced or disclosed by company during 2026 (consistent with 'a slew') SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, R&D day presentations, or quarterly earnings call commentary during 2026KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“With respect to our 2025 expansion, we expect to realize approximately $2 billion in annual cost savings by the end of 2027.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative annualized cost savings realized from the strategic productivity initiative, as disclosed by management
Company-reported annual run-rate cost savings >= $1.8 billion (approximately $2 billion) by end of 2027 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITManagement commentary / investor presentations (quarterly earnings calls and press releases through Q4 2027)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“For MEVI, there's a lot of excitement there around the potency of the sacitamab, which has the opportunity to read out as well potentially in early 2026.”
Test pending
2025 Q1 (32)32 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We would expect continued growth from YERVOY in '25.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We plan to initiate 7 Phase III programs starting this year on Coben, clearly illustrating that we'll continue to invest in our pipeline.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And conversion will accelerate in the second half of the year once we transition to a permanent J code on July 1.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For the year, we expect strong double-digit growth for Eliquis overall.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But as we've said previously, we project it to be roughly net neutral across our portfolio this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we'll see second half sales be higher than first half sales. But for the full year, we expect strong year-on-year growth for Eliquis.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In fact, what we're going to see in Q1 is going to be the lowest quarter of sales for Eliquis mid-single-digit sequential growth from Q4 to Q1 globally.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Overall, we're going to see favorability with Eliquis due to the elimination of the coverage gap and with that, we're not going to see the historical dynamics with Eliquis, where first half sales have been higher than the second half sales.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we would expect to see continued strong uptake through 2025. And as we said, with the ramp back half of this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“However, on a total company basis, we expect the inventory and gross-to-net dynamics to normalize beginning in Q2, with second half revenues to be higher than the first half of the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a result of this, we expect the legacy portfolio to decline approximately 10% to 12% on a sequential basis, reflecting these dynamics and continued generic impacts as previously communicated.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As I said earlier, we expect Eliquis revenue for the remaining quarters of 2025 to steadily increase. particularly in the second half.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As it relates to quarterly phasing, we expect the first quarter to be impacted by the typical inventory destocking we see each year following the build in Q4.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Operating margin is expected to be approximately 37% for 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We anticipate our overall expenses to be more evenly phased throughout the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Now continuing with our 2025 guidance for certain P&L line items, we expect our gross margin to be approximately 72%, which reflects the impact of product mix.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect the remaining $400 million to be realized in 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Regarding CERTIKTU specifically, this will temper our reported sales in the first half of the year until demand volume can offset these impacts.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Starting in 2025, we further improved our access position with 80% of covered lives having 0 step edits, which will help us drive demand growth.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The remaining quarters of 2025 should steadily increase, particularly in the second half of the year due to the elimination of the coverage gap.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“This year, we're initiating 7 Phase III studies across 3 indications: Alzheimer's disease agitation, Alzheimer's disease cognition and bipolar 1 disorder.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Specifically, that means increasing the velocity of growth that we have in the last couple of years exiting this decade and into the next.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Company revenue growth rate (year-over-year), as reported
Revenue growth rate in years approaching and entering the 2030s exceeds the average annual growth rate of the preceding couple of years (i.e., growth accelerates rather than staying flat or declining) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / annual report (10-K) revenue figuresKNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For RAISE we'll continue to look for not only the response rate, but of course, progression-free survival is going to be important to continue to observe in this one as we look to the readout in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Progression-free survival (PFS) and response rate results from the RAISE trial
RAISE trial PFS and response rate data are publicly disclosed (e.g., readout announced, positive/negative determination made) by company SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release, clinical trial results presentation, or peer-reviewed publication of RAISE trial dataKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And then, of course, from the SSP and ACS readout... we expect that readout as we have stated at the back end of 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Announcement/disclosure of SSP and ACS trial readout (topline data release)
Readout publicly disclosed by company on or before 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release or management commentary on quarterly earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“From the SSP and ACS readout, events are tracking as well as the enrollment is going really well. We do not expect that readout in 2025. We expect that readout as we have stated at the back end of 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Public disclosure of SSP (stroke) and ACS trial readout/results
Readout announced or reported in the back half of 2026 (Jul-Dec 2026), not in 2025 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, clinical trial registry (ClinicalTrials.gov) updates, or quarterly earnings call commentaryKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.competitionCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we said previously, we believe physicians will convert at least 30% to 40% of the IV business ahead of our LOE in late 2028, which will extend the franchise into the 2030s.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Share of Opdivo IV business converted to Opdivo Qvantig (subcutaneous) among physicians, prior to Opdivo IV loss of exclusivity
Conversion rate >= 30% of eligible IV business by late 2028 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITmanagement commentary / company disclosures on Opdivo Qvantig conversion rates (earnings calls, investor presentations)KNOWABLE AFTER2028-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we said, an incremental. It's a $2 billion program, all that dropping to the bottom line. We said $1 billion of that which dropped this year with operating expenses of $16 billion the further $1 billion achieved by 2027 would get you to operating expenses of $15.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total operating expenses, annual
Operating expenses <= $15 billion for fiscal year 2027 (vs. $16 billion baseline referenced) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany income statement / annual report (10-K), fiscal year 2027KNOWABLE AFTER2028-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have the potential for 15 or more registrational trials that will read out by the end of next year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of registrational (pivotal/Phase 3) trial readouts disclosed by the company
Count of registrational trial readouts announced >= 15 by end of 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, pipeline updates, and quarterly earnings calls/presentationsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a result, we expanded the existing program to include approximately $2 billion of incremental run rate operating expense savings with approximately $1 billion to be achieved in 2025 and the remainder by the end of 2027.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative incremental run rate operating expense savings achieved under the expanded strategic productivity initiative
Company-disclosed run rate savings >= $1 billion by end of 2025, and >= $2 billion by end of 2027 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITManagement commentary / disclosures in quarterly earnings calls and 10-K filings (BMY)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We also expect to have registrational data for Arlocell,our GPRC5D CAR-T in multiple myeloma and for RAISE101 in Gepnets.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Disclosure of registrational (pivotal) clinical trial data for Arlocelucel (GPRC5D CAR-T) in multiple myeloma and for RAISE101 (Gepnets) trial
Company or clinical trial registry reports availability of registrational/pivotal-stage data readout for both Arlocelucel in multiple myeloma and RAISE101 in Gepnets by year-end 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, quarterly earnings calls/presentations, clinicaltrials.gov, or conference presentations (e.g., ASH, ASCO)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And next year, we plan to begin Phase III studies in autism spectrum disorder irritability.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Initiation of Phase III study/studies in autism spectrum disorder irritability for Cobenfy (KarXT)
At least one Phase III study in ASD irritability confirmed as initiated (e.g., first patient dosed or study listed as recruiting/active on clinicaltrials.gov) during calendar year 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, clinicaltrials.gov registry, or management commentary on quarterly earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“We have a multitude of important data readouts over the next 24 months with the potential to launch 10 or more new medicines and pursue over 30 indication expansion opportunities over the next 5 years.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Cumulative count of new medicine launches (new molecular entity approvals/launches) by BMS
10 or more new medicines launched within 5 years of statement date (by 2030-02-06); interim check for pace against 24-month data readout window SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases on regulatory approvals/launches and management commentary on earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-06
2024 Q4 (37)37 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We also feel really good about the operating margin guidance that we provided of at least 37% both this year and for next year as well.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Taking these updates into effect, we are raising our non-GAAP EPS guidance to a range of $0.75 to $0.95.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain confident in our ability to achieve our full year operating margin target of at least 37%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Given the strength of our results year-to-date, we are raising both our full year revenue target and our full year EPS guidance.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We're also on track to share top-line Phase 3 data from Sotyktu in psoriatic arthritis by year-end.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We are on track to pay down our target of $10 billion of debt by the first half of 2026.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain on track to deliver $1.5 billion in savings by the end of 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain on track to start registrational trials next year in Alzheimer's agitation, Alzheimer's cognition, bipolar disorder and autism spectrum disorder.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“First, we look forward to the PDUFA date for the nivolumab subcu in late December.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But taken together, we see this as essentially net neutral across our portfolio.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So with the elimination of the coverage gap, we expect favorability with Eliquis next year due to CAR T redesign with the elimination of the coverage gap.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we are looking forward to the readout towards the end of this year for both POETYK-PsA-1 and POETYK-PsA-1 within 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.competitionCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But as we exit this year, we will be in a better position versus where we started the year, and we're going to work to be more competitive.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“But this comes with significant rebating and gross net impact that will be compensated by increased volume over time. It's going to take a few quarters for that to wash out.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And I could say we are having productive conversations with the remaining payers and expect to enable broader access and adoption in 2021.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As I said, in terms of the -- as we see the launch an access coming online, really, this is going to be a second half ramp. That's how we see it.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We do see this as a 2025 launch with the launch picking up after attaining broad access. We expect to see sales ramp in the second half of the year, and I'll describe those dynamics.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Excluding the acquired in-process R&D, we continue to expect estimated underlying non-GAAP tax rate for the full year to be approximately 18%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For OI&E, we have increased our estimate from approximately $50 million of expense to approximately $125 million of income due to better-than-expected royalty and interest income.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Excluding acquired impresses R&D, we now expect total operating expenses for the year to increase approximately 4% to 5%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Turning to gross margin. We now expect a slightly tighter range to reflect the impact of our U.S. sales mix.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.competitionCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a reminder, for modeling purposes, in addition to Revlimid, other legacy brands should soften in the fourth quarter due to competition from generics for Sprycel and Abraxane in the U.S. and Pomalyst Europe.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“we have updated our full year sales estimate of Revlimid to approximately $5.5 billion.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We now expect full year 2024 revenue to increase approximately 5% as reported and approximately 6% at constant currency, primarily due to higher-than-anticipated sales of Revlimid.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we said previously, we expect the majority of the savings to come through this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we said previously, we expect that over time, demand growth will offset these pressures.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“This would result in the fourth quarter sales being similar to this quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect a step-up in gross to net discounts resulting from increased rebating associated with our approved access position.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect more modest sequential growth from third quarter to fourth quarter as demand normalizes.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Looking ahead, we continue to expect global full year sales growth to be in the mid-single-digit range.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In late December, we expect the FDA's decision on the subcutaneous formulation of nivolumab.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We anticipate that, that Phase 2 data readout in the next couple of years and then start the Phase 3 program based on the doses that we have identified in that Phase 2 program.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Public disclosure of MYK-224 Phase 2 (Phase 2a) data readout
Company or clinical trial registry (e.g., clinicaltrials.gov, press release, earnings call) reports Phase 2 data readout for MYK-224 by the stated deadline SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, earnings call transcripts, clinicaltrials.gov postingsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-10-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“as you know, ACS as well as the SSP programs are slated to read out in 2026, and we are on track for that.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Readout (topline results disclosure) of the ACS and SSP Phase 3 programs
Company or press release discloses topline/readout data for both the ACS and SSP programs by 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, clinicaltrials.gov status updates, and quarterly earnings call commentaryKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we talked about shifting at least 30% to 40% of the total U.S. Opdivo business, we can do that ahead of the LOE, which is in late 2028.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Share of total U.S. Opdivo business (IV) converted to subcutaneous nivolumab formulation
>= 30% of total U.S. Opdivo business shifted to subcu formulation SourceWHERE TO FIND ITManagement commentary / company disclosures on Opdivo subcu mix (earnings calls, 10-K/10-Q U.S. Opdivo revenue breakdown)KNOWABLE AFTER2028-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“This is because at this time, based on review of event rates, we are seeing a lower rate of strokes and systemic embolism than originally anticipated, and the increased enrollment supports maintaining the planned data readout in 2027.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Milvexian atrial fibrillation Phase 3 trial data readout occurrence
Data readout (topline results) publicly disclosed by BMY/J&J during calendar year 2027 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, clinicaltrials.gov trial status, or BMY quarterly earnings calls/SEC filingsKNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we have expanded the ongoing ADEPT program in Alzheimer's disease psychosis with Phase 3 data expected in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Availability of Phase 3 (ADEPT program, Alzheimer's disease psychosis) topline data disclosure
Company or clinical trial registry discloses Phase 3 ADEPT data readout by 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release, quarterly earnings call commentary, or clinicaltrials.gov posting of resultsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“so hopefully, the studies read out positive that will lead to a filing in 2025.”
Test pending
2024 Q3 (42)42 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Yeah, thanks, Terence. And look, we remain committed to our greater than 37% operating margin.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“What I'll say today, now that we have seen the final price, we're increasingly confident in our ability to navigate the impact of IRA on Eliquis.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Given the strength of our Q2 results and the confidence we have in the remainder of the year, we now expect to deliver top-line growth at the upper end of our guidance range.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect that to be steady and consistent growth over time.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We also plan to have several indications, including PSA by -- we'll see some data by the end of this year, which will help both PSO and help accelerate Sotyktu as well as SLE, both of which SLE and PSA will be approved and will read out at that time.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We recognize this is a highly competitive market and we're continuing to make improvements and we expect further improvements in access in January.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And just to close off on that, what I would say when we look at Part-D redesign across the entire portfolio, we actually think that it offsets and would be largely meaningful.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We will see a favorability with Eliquis next year due to the Part-D redesign, notably with the elimination of the coverage gap. That'll partially be offset by Rev and Pomalyst having responsibility now in the catastrophic phase.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect continued strong growth to be driven first by our lead indication in LBCL as Breyanzi is increasingly recognized as the best-in-class CD19 as well as by our expanded indications, which are off to a very good start.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So in the second quarter, as David shared, sales increased over 50% versus prior year and we anticipate that to continue through the remainder of the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have a growing portfolio of young assets. We saw good growth in the first half and we expect good growth in the back half.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Reminder, given a late September and Q4 launch, we effectively see this as a 2025 launch and KarXT is going to be the first innovative therapy in schizophrenia approved for decades.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“I would think about bolt-on deals and partnerships as being the priority for us in the immediate term.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We'll also see, as David mentioned, a modest increase in gross-to-net due to the rebates required for improved access, offset by increased volume.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And so that's about over 100 million lives now and we expect further access improvements in January.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And for Revlimid, while we continue to monitor variability from generics and other dynamics, we now expect full-year sales to be at the higher end of our $4.5 billion to $5 billion sales range.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“However, as a result of these dynamics and the strength of our underlying business, we expect strong growth across the portfolio in the fourth quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Year-to-date, our growth portfolio has grown approximately 16% and we anticipate a similar rate of growth in the second half.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a result of these changes, we are raising the range of our 2024 non-GAAP EPS guidance to between $0.60 and $0.90.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Excluding this impact, the estimated underlying tax rate for the full year is still expected to be about 18%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For OI&E, we now expect annual expenses of approximately $50 million due to higher-than-anticipated estimated royalties and favorable net interest expense.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Overall, our previous operating margin target of at least 37% for the full year remains unchanged.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Given the delay in timing of anticipated expenses in Q2, we now expect a step-up in Q3.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Excluding acquired and process R&D, we continue to expect our total operating expenses to be at the upper end of low-single-digit percentage increase range.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“With respect to gross margin, we are raising our guidance to reflect the impact of sales mix.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our guidance for the full-year revenue is now low single-digit growth, which we now expect to come in at the upper end of the range.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“These actions are consistent with our plan to pay down approximately $10 billion of debt over the next two years.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a result, in the near term, we anticipate modest incremental gross-to-net pressure on revenue growth, which will be offset by demand growth over time.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a reminder, these dynamics are more acute in the second half of the year, resulting in lower sales versus the first half.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we said previously, we are pursuing further development of Opdualag in a segment of first-line lung cancer and we remain on track to initiate our Phase 3 registrational program later this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect growth this year to be in the mid-single-digit range as core indications mature and we await additional regulatory actions, including FDA approval in the periadjuvant lung expected in October.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are also raising our guidance range for full-year EPS.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In immunology, we expect to see data this year for CD19 NEX-T.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“With the anticipated launch of the subcutaneous formulation of nivolumab at the end of this year, we continue to estimate that at least 30% to 40% of US patients being treated with IV will convert to the more convenient subcutaneous administration across multiple indications.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our plans to start trials in both Alzheimer's agitation and bipolar disorder are on track.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are rapidly building out the necessary infrastructure ahead of KarXT's anticipated FDA approval in late September.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're executing on our cost-reduction efforts and are on track to achieve the $1.5 billion in cost savings we announced in Q1.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Certainly, both trials have moved to the Part 2 of the study and you will continue to hear about how the trial progresses and we're looking forward to the readout starting in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Public disclosure of Part 2 trial readout/data (topline or detailed results) for the two referenced studies
At least one of the two trials reports readout data on or before 2026-12-31 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press release, clinical trial results disclosure (e.g., clinicaltrials.gov posting, medical conference presentation, or earnings call commentary)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have reinitiated the recruitment in the trial and we are still looking forward to the data readout in 2026, along with certainly looking forward to new indications starting with a small-cell lung cancer Phase 1 trial that is already ongoing.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Data readout from the Actinium-225 (RZ101/ACTION-1) GEP-NET Phase 3 trial
Company or trial registry (e.g., clinicaltrials.gov, press release, conference presentation) reports topline data readout from the trial during calendar year 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, clinicaltrials.gov trial status/results, quarterly earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So our goal is to convert as much business as we can well prior to the LOE. And we expect to convert at least 30% to 40% of the total US business for Opdivo ahead of the LOE.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Opdivo subcutaneous (subcu) formulation share of total US Opdivo business, converted from IV to subcu ahead of loss of exclusivity (LOE)
Subcu conversion >= 30% of total US Opdivo business prior to LOE SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures / management commentary on earnings calls regarding Opdivo subcu vs IV mix, or BMY 10-K/10-Q product revenue breakdownKNOWABLE AFTER2028-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have late-stage pipeline assets that are reading out starting this year and accelerating through next year and into 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Number of late-stage pipeline readouts (Phase 3 data or equivalent) disclosed by the company
At least one late-stage pipeline readout disclosed in 2024, with additional readouts occurring in 2025 and 2026 (i.e., readout cadence increases year over year) SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, quarterly earnings calls, and pipeline updates (10-K/10-Q, investor presentations)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As previously discussed, we are also expanding KarXT to additional indications with data expected in adjunctive schizophrenia in 2025 and Alzheimer's disease psychosis in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Disclosure of clinical trial data readouts for KarXT (xanomeline-trospium) in adjunctive schizophrenia and in Alzheimer's disease psychosis
Adjunctive schizophrenia data disclosed by company/press release or presented at medical conference by end of 2025; Alzheimer's disease psychosis data disclosed by end of 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany press releases, quarterly earnings calls, or medical conference presentations (e.g., clinicaltrials.gov results, BMS investor updates)KNOWABLE AFTER2026-12-31
2024 Q2 (31)31 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So given a September '26 PDUFA and some of the timelines to obtain broad Medicaid coverage, we effectively see this as a 2025 launch, but we're very excited about the potential of KarXT and we plan to make this a very big product for Bristol-Myers Squibb.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And our underlying non-GAAP EPS forecast has also remained unchanged.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We remain confident that we will deliver top line growth for the year consistent with what we communicated in February.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In 2024, we don't anticipate significant impact across our portfolio, across Eliquis, Revlimid or other brands. We do expect, though, more substantial changes to the Part D benefit next year since the products are impacted by the redesign.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.supply chainCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“With the Indianapolis manufacturing facility now up and running, we're looking forward to supplying the actinium part of it as well as the drug product towards the back half -- or back end to early part of next year, and that will certainly help in terms of continuing to supply and taking it forward.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And so we are looking forward to presenting the data in the second half of this year as well as initiating the trial versus standard of care in the second half of this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we'll be through the LOE of Revlimid basically at the end of next year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So for this year, if you remember, we exited last year at $6 billion. So we'll be in that $4 billion to $4.5 billion is our best view this year and then a further step down next year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we remain focused on securing zero steps by 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“That's what we shared in January, and we expect to roughly double that to 20,000 paid prescriptions in Q4.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're seeing about 20% outpatient use today for Breyanzi, and we expect that to continue based on the differentiated safety profile.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We just received approval in the U.S. for CLL and with additional approvals anticipated next month in follicular lymphoma and mantle cell lymphoma. And this is going to roughly double the addressable market for Breyanzi.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We anticipate robust growth this year, because not only just in accelerated growth in DLBCL, as Breyanzi is increasingly recognized as the best-in-class CD19, we also expect to see expanded indications.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our objective is to return Abecma to growth over time as we move into a larger patient population.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Future demand will benefit from the recent KarMMa-3 approval, which expands the addressable patient population.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect the momentum of Camzyos to continue, supported by the compelling real-world evidence in over 1,500 patients presented earlier this month at ACC.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're looking forward to starting a Phase III registrational trial versus standard of care in a segment consisting of about 20% to 30% of non-small cell lung cancer patients.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In addition, we expect to add another large PBM later this year that will expand access coverage by approximately 30 million lives.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Consistent with what we previously communicated, starting in Q2, we expect Breyanzi to benefit from the recent new indications and expanded manufacturing capacity.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we said in the past, we expect to see growth at a more modest pace than 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We remain aligned with our previous operating margin to target at least 37% through next year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Given the timing of the deal closures, we expect to come in at the upper end of our guidance range with an expected step-up in Q2 and the remaining OpEx to be more evenly spread across the back half of the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Excluding acquired in-process R&D, we continue to expect our total operating expenses to increase in the low single-digit range, reflecting incremental costs associated with the recent acquisitions, partially offset by the realization of internal savings through the productivity initiatives I mentioned earlier.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to expect gross margin to be approximately 74%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We continue to expect 2024 total revenues to increase in the low single-digit range at reported rates as well as excluding foreign exchange.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We plan to utilize our cash flow to repay approximately $10 billion of debt over the next 2 years.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect this growth to be mitigated later in the year through savings and productivity initiatives I will speak to shortly.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As a result of these actions, we anticipate cost savings of approximately $1.5 billion by the end of 2025, which will allow us to reinvest in high priority growth brands and R&D programs.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And then as we said earlier in the year, we anticipate to be returning to growth before the end of the decade.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Total company revenue, annual year-over-year growth rate
Annual reported revenue growth > 0% for a fiscal year on or before 2029 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany annual income statement (10-K)KNOWABLE AFTER2029-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In terms of how we think about the timing of the trough, based on our current plans, we start to see an impact in 2026.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Direction of revenue/EPS impact from patent cliff (trough), fiscal year
Company reports a negative impact to revenue or EPS attributable to the trough dynamics beginning in fiscal year 2026 SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany quarterly/annual reports and management commentary (10-K/10-Q, earnings calls) covering FY2026KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“We're hopeful that we have an opportunity to launch there sometime in the back end of this year and into next year.”
Test pending
2024 Q1 (34)34 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And all of that said, we'll be able to deliver a margin greater than 37% for the year, which we feel very confident about.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So that coupled with new launches internationally, we are confident that this is going to lead to continued and sustained growth for this important brand.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We also have some of our growth products like, Eliquis and Opdivo, which will continue to contribute significant growth in 2024.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.competitionCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“So taken together, we're confident in Abecma's profile, looking forward to the ODAC, and I'm confident that will be more competitive this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“This aligns with our previous operating margin target of at least 37%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So again, we do expect to see continued growth for Zeposia as patients continue to accumulate and physicians continue to gain experience with the product.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we'll start to see those sales manifest in the back end of the year and into 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So later this quarter and this year, you will be able to hear about the data.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We do expect to see continued steady and consistent growth.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And now planning for initiating the next phase of development registration trials within the next six months to twelve months.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We are seeing increases in outpatient use because of the best-in-class safety profile that Breyanzi brings, and we expect strong demand growth this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.supply chainCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In fact, we will see supply materialize even further in Q2 and expand to support our new indications for Breyanzi starting with the plan CLL indication in March, where Breyanzi will be the first and only cell therapy agent to have this indication.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We also expect to continue to make good progress with Breyanzi in 2024, supported by strengthening of our vector supply.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we expect continued strong performance this year for Eliquis in the U.S. and expect significant growth through the end of 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As it relates to IRA, we do expect an improvement in patient affordability as the patient out-of-pocket changes for patients this year and into next.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we expect European approval in the first half of this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We're very pleased with the launch as you know, we're seeing strong sales performance. We expect that to continue this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And so we'll continue to drive demand and work to continue to improve moving patients from our bridge with our ESI and Cigna wins in 2024, and also work to secure improved access in 2025 as well, where it makes financial sense to do so.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And that volume momentum will more than offset the gross-to-net reset in Q1 as the year progresses.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And we plan to get roughly double that level around 20,000 prescriptions in Q4.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“This year, it's really important to focus on increased paid commercial prescriptions for Sotyktu.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“So we do expect growth in 2024 for Abecma.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And RayzeBio would be approximately $0.13 dilutive to earnings with half in financing and the other half in OpEx.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Karuna is expected to be about $0.30 dilutive to earnings relating to financing costs as we plan to absorb the OpEx.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As it relates to our line item guidance for the year, we expect gross margin to be approximately 74%, which reflects an evolution of our sales mix and the non-recurrence of hedging gains from last year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And while our legacy portfolio includes assets that are maturing, we expect strong growth from Eliquis in the U.S. this year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As we said previously, we expect a more modest pace of growth than last year for Opdivo, with the potential for acceleration in the back half of the year from new indications.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Our plan is to repay approximately $10 billion of debt over the next two years to improve our leverage profile.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.regulationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Internationally, we expect Sotyktu to gain additional country regulatory and reimbursement approvals over time.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“The momentum in the U.S. for Camzyos is expected to continue in 2024, and internationally we expect modest near-term sales contribution based on timing of reimbursement in newly launched markets.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We plan to grow our business this year as shown on Slide 10.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And as you'll hear from David in a few minutes, we expect to grow our business this year.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“And these indications, we believe, will double the addressable patient population for Breyanzi.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Management-disclosed addressable patient population estimate for Breyanzi (as stated in company communications/investor materials)
New addressable patient population estimate >= 2x the pre-2024 baseline addressable population figure SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany investor presentations, earnings call commentary, or press releases discussing Breyanzi's addressable marketKNOWABLE AFTER2027-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.regulationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“More broadly, though, we largely don't expect Medicare Part D design changes to impact our portfolio because that'll largely take effect in 2026 when branded Revlimid will be fully eroded.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Revlimid branded revenue (BMY portfolio) and qualitative statement on Medicare Part D redesign impact on portfolio revenue in 2026
Branded Revlimid revenue in 2026 is negligible/fully eroded (e.g., <5% of 2023 branded Revlimid revenue) and company does not attribute material 2026 revenue impact to Part D redesign SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany 10-K/Q4 earnings release and management commentary (revenue by product, Revlimid line item) for fiscal year 2026KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
2023 Q4 (42)42 open
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“But as I stated, we’re very confident that we will see a significantly broader access position next year, so we’ll go from non-covered to being covered, which will be a really nice growth opportunity for Sotyktu as we move into early next year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“I talked earlier that coupled with broader formulary access in January of 2024, we’re confident that will be a strong accelerator of growth for Sotyktu in 2024 and beyond.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.supply chainCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we anticipate both supply and the quality of manufacturing for that product to improve, and given the profile of the drug, we have every expectation that’s going to continue to perform very well as we get into 2024”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“We’re in the throes of negotiations with the PBMs, so we would expect to see a marked improvement in 2024 and that could continue into 2025, where we would expect to have very broad access across the other two PBMs. We’re very confident in our ability to achieve that.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“But you should think about the operating margin as a floor as we look forward through ’25.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“And the 37% guidance is a floor that we’ve provided as we look forward to that midterm period, which is 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.supply chainCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“As we mentioned in July, during the quarter we remained constrained with respect to vector; however, with continued strong demand in second and third line-plus large B-cell lymphoma and an expected increase in supply next year, we are confident in our ability to grow in 2024 and beyond.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“This performance along with potential new launch opportunities in peri-adjuvant lung and first line bladder, as well as in recently approved adjuvant melanoma indication reinforce our confidence in the continued growth for Opdivo.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“As we have shared, we expect consistent and steady growth akin to a cardiovascular launch for this important product, and we remain confident in our long-term projections.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“You’ll have seen that we are increasing our non-GAAP EPS guidance for the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“however, when you look at where we will likely be in 2024, we will likely have the majority of our business in either zero or one step edit position.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“LOEs in 2025 will be less than 10% of our total revenue, so we’ll have a much younger portfolio by the time we get to ’25 and that will set us up well for ’26.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“there’s really no change to how we’re looking at it, which is pretty consistent with where consensus is for ’24 and ’25, dropping down to about $4 billion next year and $2 billion in ’25.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.supply chainCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Chris mentioned Breyanzi - you know, Breyanzi has been seeing--has the best-in-class self-therapy agent, and coming into next year, we’re going to be in a much better supply position and that is going to help accelerate and catalyze that product, and also Sotyktu as well”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We believe the majority of CVS patients will be coming out of the hub by Q4 and start to see some benefit towards the tail end of Q4 and into Q1.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For those reasons, we do expect to see continued growth and uptake for Zeposia.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“For Sotyktu and Camzyos, the dynamics are the products are just taking a bit longer and the trajectory for those products requires that we think about the time to peak being shifted back.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Now as you have stated, our focus really is around accelerating access, and we anticipate achieving broader access in 2024 and continuing in 2025.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.marginsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We have adjusted our new product portfolio target to greater than $10 billion in 2026, a year later than previously communicated, and with respect to operating margin, [indiscernible] our target to greater than 37% through 2025 to reflect continued strong profitability while enabling flexibility to invest in future growth and incorporating the dilution from Mirati.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“With respect to our medium term guidance on Slide 22, as Chris described earlier, we reaffirm our low to mid single digit revenue CAGR from 2020 to 2025 and the $8 billion to $10 billion growth from our in-line portfolio during this period.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“With respect to our earnings, we have increased the midpoint of our non-GAAP EPS guidance and narrowed the range to $7.50 to $7.65.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.otherCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Based on the changes to tax I described earlier, we are revising our full year effective tax rate to 15.5%.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.costsCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Turning to opex, we continue to expect roughly low single digit decline compared to last year, corresponding to roughly $4.4 billion expected in the fourth quarter.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As mentioned, we expect new products to be about $3.5 billion this year and for Revlimid to deliver about $6 billion.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Lastly, turning to our 2023 non-GAAP guidance on Slide 21, we continue to expect revenue to decline in the low single digits compared to last year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.capital allocationCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In this regard, during the quarter we executed $4 billion of ASR and expect that to be completed by the end of the year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Building on our momentum, we continue to expect the further strengthening of access next year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect this will take on average two to three months per patient.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Based on the performance year-to-date, we now expect the new product portfolio to deliver roughly $3.5 billion for the full year 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“You can expect to hear more about our hematology assets at ASH later this year and about ARLDD at a medical conference early next year.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“As I mentioned last month, we have exciting opportunities to strengthen our pipeline and deliver more important medicines to patients across therapeutic areas, including expanding our registrational pipeline from six to 12 assets over the next 18 months.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.productCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Finally, I would highlight that our new product portfolio will expand this quarter with the addition of repotrectinib next month and, upon completion of the Mirati transaction, Krazati.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Taken together, we now expect sales from this portfolio to be $3.5 billion in 2023.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Breyanzi performance was strong for the quarter and we expect strengthening performance for this product heading into 2024 as manufacturing performance and supply continue to improve.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.pricingCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We expect these to normalize through Q4 as we’ve seen in previous years.”
Test pending
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.demandCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“Eliquis demand growth in the U.S. is strong with continued opportunities for growth going forward.”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“Camzyos, we also see that tracking ahead in the longer term.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Camzyos net product sales (annual revenue) versus company's originally guided peak sales projection
Camzyos actual or projected peak sales exceed the original peak sales guidance disclosed at launch SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures (10-K/annual report product revenue, investor day or earnings call commentary on Camzyos peak sales guidance)KNOWABLE AFTER2030-12-31
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONHigh conviction · “confident”, “clear line of sight”, absolute language
“we have said that that product portfolio had $25 billion-plus potential. Where we sit today, we still see that potential - at least $25 billion as we get to the end of this decade.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Combined annual revenue of the specified new/growth product portfolio, fiscal year 2030
Combined product portfolio revenue >= $25 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany-disclosed revenue by product (10-K / annual report / Q4 2030 earnings materials)KNOWABLE AFTER2031-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“In the medium term, we do expect to achieve greater than $10 billion in sales for this portfolio in 2026, rather than 2025.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Annual net product sales for the referenced portfolio (Zeposia and related new/in-line brands portfolio), fiscal year 2026
Portfolio sales for fiscal year 2026 > $10 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany financial disclosures (10-K / Q4 2026 earnings release and call)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.growthCONVICTIONStated expectation · “we expect”, “should”, “we see”
“We also updated our target for our new products to grow to more than $10 billion in 2026 and for our operating margin to be above 37% while reaffirming our other 2020 to 2025 guidance.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
New product portfolio revenue, full fiscal year
2026 new product revenue > $10 billion SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany financial disclosures (10-K / Q4 2026 earnings release)KNOWABLE AFTER2027-02-15
OVERDUEVERDICTPast its deadline, awaiting the next reporting evidence.growthCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“Clearly, a KarMMA-3 approval would move Abecma into earlier lines of treatment and be a catalyst to return Abecma to growth by opening up a significant larger patient pool”
Test pending
OPENVERDICTDeadline not reached yet; the claim is still on the clock.productCONVICTIONHedged language · “we hope”, “could”, “if conditions allow”
“We think that these indications will represent somewhere between 65% and 75% of the Opdivo business as it sits today, and with focused effort we think we can convert roughly about 50% of the overall business over time, and so that’s really how we’re thinking about it. And if we’re successful in doing that, we think this has the potential to extend the franchise into the early 2030s.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Share of Opdivo revenue converted to subcutaneous (sub-cu) formulation, as a percentage of overall Opdivo business
Sub-cu conversion reaches approximately 50% (>=40%) of overall Opdivo business over time SourceWHERE TO FIND ITCompany disclosures on Opdivo sub-cu (Opdivo Qvantig) revenue mix in 10-K/10-Q filings or management commentary on earnings callsKNOWABLE AFTER2033-12-31