UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

“Combination of all this, we remain confident in our full year guidance.”

“That all comes to light in our commitment to process 80% of our prior authorizations in real time by the end of 2027.”

“We continue to be in that mindset of that 13%-16%. Definitely believe we can perform in that range.”

“We remain confident that that journey will result in a return to our historic margin performance of 7% or greater for the commercial group business.”

“This all builds on our industry-leading commitment last year to pass through 100% of manufacturer rebates to customers by the end of 2027.”

“we committed to eliminating, by the end of this year, 30% of prior authorization volume and nearly two-thirds of prior authorization requirements for pediatric care.”

“we are confident in being able to deliver meaningful earnings growth in 2026 and into 2027 with the reinvestments we are making in the business to build a stronger, more durable foundation for 2027 and beyond.”

“Foundationally, not expecting a meaningful deviation from the still elevated underlying core trends.”

“The sticky nature of the persistent and elevated trend is extending the timeframe for full margin recovery past 2027, as we've previously discussed and you highlighted.”

“It's contributing 50 basis points or so of incremental trend in 2026, now totaling at least 100 basis points of total cost.”

“Overall, our 2026 margins will be within our previously communicated range, as you've indicated, -1% to -1.7%, and we expect to hit that expectation for the year.”

“We continue to believe annualized 2026 rate impacts will be in the zone of around 6%-7%, and still lagging elevated medical trend.”

“In contrast, Optum Insight and Optum Rx remain more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year, with each expected to generate approximately 55% of their full-year earnings during the back half as client implementations, growth investments, and normal business seasonality progress through the year.”

“Similarly, we expect nearly all of Optum Health's earnings to be recognized in the first half, with modest profit in Q3, offset by modest losses in the fourth quarter due to the seasonality of the risk-based businesses.”

“UnitedHealthcare earnings continue to be weighted approximately 75% to the first half of the year.”

“We expect the operating cost ratio to come in at the higher end of our previously discussed range as a result of investments in our people, communities, and AI.”

“We now expect a full-year medical care ratio of 88.1% ± 25 basis points.”

“We are increasing the full-year operating earnings outlook for UnitedHealthcare to at least $12 billion and for Optum Health to at least $2.2 billion.”

“We're providing new adjusted earnings per share guidance range of $19.50 to $20, with slightly more earnings in 3Q relative to 4Q.”

“We remain on track to reduce our debt to capital ratio to approximately 40% by the end of 2026.”

“We now expect to complete total share repurchases of at least $5 billion in 2026, compared to initial guidance of $2.5 billion.”

“We are well on our way, as we expect to end 2026 with more than 95% of clients on 100% pass-through.”

“As our plans and initiatives begin to mature and scale, with disciplined execution, we expect margins to continue to steadily improve.”

“available to 70% of our employed providers today and on track to exceed 90% by year-end.”

“We will expand these programs across our Optum Health footprint by the end of 2026.”

“At this distance, commercial margin recovery will remain a focus area longer than originally anticipated.”

“we expect Medicaid margins to remain pressured for 2026.”

“We now expect full-year Medicare Advantage enrollment to decline by approximately 1.1 million and Medicare margins to finish 2026 above 3%.”

“Commercial costs are stubbornly high, rising above expectations, which we believe is consistent with what is being experienced across the sector.”

“We expect the 2026 Medicare medical cost trend to come in below our initial estimate of around 10%.”

“We're seeing some modest favorability in the government programs which would then include Medicare Advantage, commercial very consistent with those expectations.”

“Consistent with our guidance, we expect some of these dynamics to moderate as we move further into the second quarter, particularly given the impact of IRA-related changes to Part D seasonality, which meaningfully shifted the earnings profile beginning in 2025.”

“These new standards are now in place across nearly 70% of our settings and are on track to reach nearly 80% by the end of the second quarter.”

“Relative to capital deployment, our original guidance was approximately $2.5 billion back half loaded. So think of later Q3, Q4. At this stage with the intrinsic value discount we see, we thought it was important for shareholders that we would get at that sooner and the confidence we have in our results.”

“For 2026, maybe just to hit that one as a jumping off point, we're only a couple of months into the year, but feel good about achieving the 50 basis point year-over-year margin advance that we had previewed last quarter.”

“So I would say while it's early, those two things are really giving us confidence that we're focused in the right places and that we would expect some of this improved performance to continue rest of the year.”

“We're not seeing any inflection point, and we're really comfortable with the pricing posture that we had coming into 2026 based on how things are playing out in the early innings.”

“And that gives us a clear path to long-term sustainable margin levels of 6% to 8%.”

“Optum Real, an AI-first platform launched a couple of quarters ago, now has 0.5 billion transactions year till date and expects to close the year at over 2.5 billion transactions.”

“In the end, all internal investments in AI use cases is routed through Optum Insight and has the potential to be commercialized outside of UHG, and we expect to return conservatively of 2:1 on these programs over the next few years, many of them paying back within the next 12 to 18 months.”

“You must have noticed we just launched Avery, a generative AI chatbot answering member questions for UnitedHealthcare, which will be expanded to over 20 million members by the year-end.”

“But I think as the year progresses and we begin to migrate and bring folks over, you'll start to see that subside. And I would also just remind you that we've assumed a little bit of lower script volume, obviously, due to the membership that we had. But as the year progresses, I think you'll see some of our G&A initiatives and AI investments coming through, and that will actually improve the outlook in the back half.”

“I think you'll see the benefits of that coming into the back half.”

“Between Price Edge, Specialty Savings IQ and our Critical Drug Affordability, we'll deliver more than $1.5 billion this year in affordability to the patients that we serve through this business.”

“And then for 2027, our aspiration is to be in the upper half of the 2% to 4% long-term range and doing that while continuing to deliver the quality, the value and delivering on the full expectations that I know that our members have of us.”

“So consistent with our strategy in 2026, we're going to remain focused on financial sustainability, product durability and then the path to margin recovery that we're on within that 2% to 4% long-term range that we've discussed.”

“This pattern also similarly influences the progression of our medical cost ratio with first half levels more than 250 basis points below the midpoint of our full year guidance and second half levels more than 200 basis points above.”

“In contrast, Optum Insight and Optum Rx are more naturally weighted to the back half with each generating approximately 60% of earnings in the second half.”

“Similarly, for Optum Health, we expect earnings to moderate throughout the year from Q1 levels with a significant majority of full year reported earnings occurring in the first half.”

“UnitedHealthcare earnings are over 75% weighted to the first half of the year.”

“We continue to expect approximately 2/3 of earnings in the first half of the year and the remaining 1/3 in the second half.”

“While it is still early in the year, we've updated our full year outlook to greater than $18.25 per share.”

“With our cash flow performance this quarter, we were able to bring the debt-to-capital ratio down to 42.9%, on track to our year-end goal of 40%.”

“We continue to expect operating cost ratio trends to normalize over the course of the year as these investments scale and begin to deliver productivity benefits.”

“This transaction is expected to be accretive in 2027.”

“As we have shared over the past 3 quarters, our efforts are focused on management and process improvements that steadily improve margins at Optum Health for 2026 and accelerate into 2027.”

“We will accelerate payments in all lines of business by 50% for rural hospitals and exempt rural health care providers for most medical prior authorization requirements.”

“In addition to the steps we are taking to further reduce the overall number of medical prior authorizations by 30% or more by the end of this year.”

“At this point in the year, we expect membership to contract consistent with previous guidance, but centering more around a drop of 1.3 million.”

“We still expect total membership to decline by approximately 1/3 in 2026.”

“We continue to expect membership attrition and negative margins in 2026 in light of continuing high trend and insufficient funding with modest margin improvements beginning in 2027.”

“At this distance, we anticipate trends to remain at the anticipated levels for 2026.”

“We remain on track to invest nearly $1.5 billion in AI-related initiatives in 2026.”

“Those first independent reports were published in December and the remediation recommendations will be completed and reported no later than March.”

“we continue to believe we can strengthen that. So I can't speak to '27, but I will speak, let's say, to a longer term and that is you know, very much feel that we can be operate within our long term growth rate margins, that 13% to 16%”

“Your second question was on the six to eight. Percent and if that's still intact. And the answer is yes.”

“And so that puts us in a nice position to deliver a modest 2% earnings growth in 2026 for a business that we expect to return to the low double digit to high single digit low single digit to high excuse me. High single digit to low double digit, earnings growth.”

“You know, that being said, we do have work to do, which is we've we've laid that out thoughtfully. And I think as, you know, in terms of progression of earnings, you know, we're looking at modest basis point improvement inside 2026.”

“Seeing elevated trend that elevated in the earlier part of 2025. Remains at those elevated levels. And our expectation is that will persist into 2026.”

“We have historically or recently talked about the commercial trend approaching 11%. I think that's probably still a good place to orientate to.”

“Specifically, I expect us to close more than half of the gap between our 2025 margin performance and our historical margin range. Which we expect to achieve in 2027.”

“However, I would expect those margins in the exchange business for 2026. To be in about the 1% range. Plus or minus 1% for that business.”

“On membership pertaining to the risk based decline, the largest share of that membership decline is connected to our exchange business for 2026, where we continue to expect meaningful decline between now and the end of the year.”

“We are projecting rate increases in the range of six to 7% in aggregate for the year, but that will continue to be below our”

“as this all sits today, as I talked about, it will mean very meaningful benefit reductions and will once again need to take a hard look at our geographic footprint, our product footprint.”

“And in addition, in 2026, we will begin to publish our results in areas of interest such as prior authorizations, and claim approval rates, certain performance statistics, data and trends, rebate practices and prices for products and services, key business and core management practices and policies.”

“As we look ahead, we expect leverage to continue improving through the year supported by strong cash generation and a more stable operating environment. And to reach our long term debt to capital target of approximately 40% before year end.”

“For 2026, we expect our dividend to remain well supported by earnings and cash flow.”

“Consistent with prior years, we expect the first half medical care ratio to be notably below the midpoint with the second half notably above.”

“Turning to cash flow. We expect to generate at least $18 billion from operations in 2026, or about 1.1 times net income.”

“Turning to our 2026 outlook, We expect revenues of approximately $440 billion net earnings of at least $17.10 per share, and adjusted net earnings of greater than $17.75 per share.”

“We expect operating earnings growth of approximately 9% while expanding margins by approximately 30 basis points.”

“Turning to OptumInsight. We expect earning growth of greater than 4% while expanding margins by approximately 90 basis points.”

“With all remaining customers expected to transition by the 2027.”

“At OptumRx, we expect operating earnings growth from expanding margins by 20 basis points.”

“Growth rates will remain somewhat tempered in 2026, but strategic refocus and investment in modern next generation services should lead to growing momentum in the back half of the year that will carry into 2027 and beyond.”

“Our 2026 performance outlook reflects adjusted earnings growth in all three segments of our business, ranging from low to high single digit year over year performance and margin expansion ranging from 20 to 90 basis points across the portfolio.”

“We anticipate operating cost reductions of nearly $1 billion in 2026 many AI enabled and importantly, in higher customer experience and satisfaction at a lower cost.”

“While this will drive margin expansion in 2026, we still anticipate operating operating just slightly below our historical margin range until 2027.”

“2026 overall, our strategic focus on margin recovery through product repositioning and repricing efforts enables us to estimate approximately 13% adjusted operating earnings growth across all of UHC.”

“We expect both fully insured group and individual enrollment to contract and be partially offset by continued momentum in our group self-funded offerings.”

“We expect Medicaid membership contraction of approximately 565,000 to 715,000 people which includes DSNP members.”

“We can continue to expect this business to see incremental pressure in 2026 largely driven by state funding shortfalls.”

“we expect an improvement in Medicare margins of approximately 50 basis points from 2025.”

“the 2025 medical cost trend was in line with our expectation of approximately 7.5% and supports our 2026 trend expectation of 10%.”

“Our initial outlook reflects measured growth across all four of our reporting business segments, with double-digit improvements at UnitedHealthcare and low to high single-digit adjusted growth across our Optum segments.”

“We're hoping to invest nearly $1.5 billion in 2026 and as much to follow in 2027.”

“We still expect to close this year with $16 billion in operating cash flow or 1.1x net income.”

“Within this, we expect to end 2025 with margins of just under 3%, which includes value-based care margins under 1%.”

“As we indicated in July, we anticipate Medicare margins will be breakeven for 2025.”

“But again, given how the pricing is being received in the marketplace, some of the opportunities that we see around controlling our costs in the future. We still feel as though that longer-term margin range of 7% to 9% is attainable.”

“So I think as we are pacing into 2026, we remain anchored and committed to the long-term potential of this business, the 6% to 8% margin that we outlined in the second quarter.”

“Simply put, we will end 2025 well positioned for a return to solid growth in 2026, acceleration in 2027 and a clear focus on our long-standing mission and strategy.”

“We are confident in our plan will ignite top line revenue and operating earnings in line with our long-term growth targets.”

“These actions increase our confidence in our ability to meet our V28 cost reduction targets in 2026 and strengthen our operating foundations for the long term.”

“At this point, we are close to completion and over 90% of our value-based payer contracts for next year and are on track to reach our goal of offsetting approximately half of the 2026 V28 headwind through payer contracting.”

“Taken together, these actions position each of our businesses on a clear path towards margin growth in 2026 with the exception of Medicaid, which I will discuss in a moment.”

“I'm confident we will return to solid earnings growth next year given the operational rigor and more prudent pricing.”

“We think, over time, the One Big Beautiful Bill, there will be some transformation and work as we collaborate with states. But we see over time about an 18- to 24-month period, we will be able to return to a rate of margins of around 2%.”

“As we think about 2026, we expect some margin degradation due to the continued dislocation of premium funding and what we're seeing in terms of elevated medical cost trends. But we do see 2026 as the trough for that performance.”

“Trends for 2025 and our outlook for 2026 remain in line with what we shared in the guidance last quarter. Trends are approximately 11%, and that is how we have priced into 2026.”

“When you think about growth overall, I would expect 2026 to be probably more in line with the general progression and growth that we're seeing in 2025.”

“We view 2026 as a year where we're probably still 150 basis points below that low end of the margin.”

“And finally, we're taking an aggressive step on affordability initiatives that should improve overall medical trend relative to our pricing.”

“These investments may slow 2026 growth, but should accelerate growth in 2027, more in line with historical expectations.”

“We also expect stability and a measured return to growth in our Optum entities, with aspects of that growth being reinvested in the business, specifically Optum Health and Optum Insight.”

“From a tailwind perspective, our repricing efforts will be a catalyst for earnings growth as we begin returning to our long-term target margins with particularly solid year-over-year results expected in our Commercial and Medicare businesses.”

“And finally, investment income should continue to move lower as interest rates decline.”

“Our effective tax rate is expected to return to a more normalized level in 2026 as compared to 2025.”

“We are comfortable with current consensus and within that, we are making the requisite investments needed to accelerate our returns in 2026 and to position our company for meaningfully stronger growth in 2027 and beyond.”

“We expect our debt-to-capital ratio to trend closer to 40% in the second half of 2026.”

“And we expect 95% of our customers will be in these arrangements in 2027 with the remainder in full rebate pass-through by 2028.”

“At this stage, we expect new membership growth in 2026 will be more than offset by expected membership attrition from the UnitedHealthcare business.”

“We believe these efforts will drive further acceleration in 2027 towards our long-term margin targets of 6% to 8%.”

“We expect margin improvement across all of Optum Health in 2026 even in the face of the third year of the Medicare funding cuts.”

“While still early in the Medicare annual enrollment period, we expect total Optum Health value-based care membership to shrink by approximately 10% in 2026 before returning to growth in 2027.”

“As we look to 2026, we expect margins to decline further as existing cost trends continue and the current rate environment does not change.”

“We believe these actions will establish a sustainable premium base while likely reducing our ACA enrollment by approximately 2/3.”

“We expect the vast majority of our employer insurance businesses to be repriced for 2026 and to return to our normal margin range in 2027.”

“While we expect our group fully insured business to contract in line with the broader market, we continue to see strong traction for our self-funded offerings.”

“We expect these actions will drive margin improvements in 2026 with potential for further advancements in 2027 that will position us to reach the upper half of our 2% to 4% targeted margin range, all of which is supported by strong STARS results.”

“In individual Medicare Advantage, we continue to believe an expected 10% medical cost trend for 2026 has us positioned appropriately.”

“We intend to balance our earnings growth ambitions in 2026 with investments and actions that will drive higher and sustainable double-digit growth beginning in 2027 and advancing from there.”

“Repricing within UnitedHealthcare is on track to drive solid operating earnings growth from margin improvement within that business in 2026.”

“While we're making steady progress in bridging this gap with states, the mismatch between rate adequacy and member acuity will likely extend through 2026.”

“For 2025, we expect breakeven performance for a non-dual core Medicaid business under community and state.”

“So I think kind of the two to two and a half percent range, and I'm talking about kinda all broad-based.”

“We expect the second half rate to be just over twenty percent.”

“Our tax rate for the year is now estimated at about 18.5%.”

“With the fourth quarter expected to be the highest, and at this distance, a relatively proportionate distribution on either side.”

“With first half results, at the midpoint, that places the second half at just under 91.5%.”

“certainly will be supportive of our twenty-seven and beyond, you know, kind of range that I've talked about where we'll be at the midpoint or above in that two to four percent guidance.”

“On the Medicaid side, we're operating at about a combined six percent premium increasing 2025 and would expect that to be comparable as we move into 2026.”

“To provide that margin expansion and recovery in 2026 with our trend outlook to be above eleven percent.”

“As we look to 2026, we're pricing for margin recovery in both the exchange business and the group business. This will lift our margins to be closer to but modestly short of our target margin range of seven percent to nine percent. We expect to recover into that range for 2027, as been previously noted.”

“Given the adjustments we've talked about around Medicare Advantage broadly, moving from three to five to two to four because of the impact of the inflation reduction act, we'd expect that to be, you know, mirrored in the community and state growth targets. So, you know, two to four still in community and state or adjusted to in community state and Medicaid would be kind of a two percent targeted margin.”

“And as we think about 2026, we contemplate negative margins at that time anywhere from negative one to negative one point seven percent.”

“Then as Bobby just talked about, you know, we see that pacing to the closer to the midpoint in 2026. And getting there in 2027.”

“So from it's somewhat academic. But I expect we will pace back steadily to low double-digit ranges and continue to advance from there.”

“And expand those margins to a range of two and a half to three percent. Think about us then getting to kind of the midpoint of that range by 2027 and advancing from there.”

“Those combinations, we think, mitigates fifty percent of the headwind of V28 as you heard, we sized at $4 billion for next year.”

“As we look further ahead we see our earnings growth outlook strengthening quickly in 2027 and pacing steadily upward over the succeeding years.”

“Looking to 2026 at this distance, I would expect solid but moderate earnings growth.”

“We now see OptumHealth long-term margins in the six to eight percent range and about five percent for biobased care, specifically.”

“Overall at Optum Health, while we expect continued pressure for the rest of this year, we anticipate meaningful improvement in our operations, and with earnings growth in 2026, albeit with a longer path to recovery in our value-based care business.”

“We are targeting growth for these services, which are projected to deliver strong year-over-year earnings growth. In 2026.”

“For 2026, we expect to deliver almost $1 billion in cost reduction.”

“With 2026 being the final year of V28 phase in, you should expect 2026 value-based care margins to remain relatively consistent with the one percent margin we are achieving this year. And then begin to advance again in 2027 and beyond.”

“We believe the combination of these activities will mitigate about half the remaining $4 billion V28 headwind in 2026.”

“We expect to keep narrowing our exposure beyond 2026.”

“We plan to cease arrangements for about two hundred thousand patients largely and fully accountable of the PPO patients we serve today.”

“This mix impact implies negative margins near double digits for these new patients, which will improve meaningfully in 2026.”

“In Medicaid, there remains a lag between funding levels and member health risk, and we expect this to continue into 2026. Resulting in additional margin compression in the business, including a loss within the non-dual segment of Medicaid in 2026.”

“Additionally, due to the projected expiration of premium subsidies across the ACA market, our membership should decline significantly.”

“We expect increased membership decline as well as shifts into both level funded and self-funded product categories because of higher medical cost trends.”

“We are working intensively to remediate Medicare through pricing, product design, and benefit changes that will enable us to be within the lower half of the targeted margin ranges in 2026 and advancing further in 2027.”

“We anticipate the existing rate and acuity mismatch will extend well into next year.”

“We may need to make the difficult decision to exit select markets if we are unable to achieve the rates necessary for higher market-wide morbidity.”

“that is a temporary phenomena, which gets fixed during 2025, but it is simply an example of one of the second order derivative effects of the transition of absorbing this 9% or more percent decrease in pricing.”

“By the end of ’25, we expect to have about 5.4 million value based care patients.”

“we expect a return to form in the quarters ahead.”

“we continue to be on track to deliver on the full year growth target of up to 800,000 members.”

“So the margins that we're anticipating consistent with the changes we've announced today are still within our targeted margin range for Medicare Advantage for 2025.”

“At UnitedHealthcare, the operating earnings outlook is updated to $16 billion to $16.5 billion and reflects the higher care activity we're seeing.”

“We expect about half of Optum Health's operating earnings to be in the first half.”

“Within this range, expect the first half of the year to be below the midpoint and the second half to be above.”

“Within this, we expect revenues for both UnitedHealthcare and Optum Rx to be better than our initial view, offsetting a reduced outlook at Optum Health.”

“Within that outlook, we expect about 50% to come in the first half of the year.”

“We expect AI will direct over half of our calls to the best resource during 2025.”

“UnitedHealthcare's Medicare Advantage business is on pace to serve an additional 800,000 people this year.”

“we're committed to improving our performance in the rest of 2025 and into ‘26. And in doing so to delivering consistent positive results for you and returning to our long term earnings per share growth target of 13% to 16%.”

“Obviously, next year, there will be a further step down in terms of pricing from the V28 model.”

“we remain optimistic with the collaborative relationships we have with our states that over the course of the year that this gap will continue to narrow.”

“By the end of 2025, we will be scaling this fully, and that's one of hundreds of use cases that we are scaling.”

“As we think about our long-term planning approach to Medicare Advantage, we remain consistent in our view of targeted margins.”

“it puts us on track to achieve the full year MA growth target of up to 800,000 that we've communicated.”

“In commercial, pricing for '25 is appropriately capturing the care activity we are seeing.”

“Within that, the quarterly pattern will look familiar with the first quarter below the midpoint of that and the fourth quarter above the midpoint and trending up to the middle of the year.”

“I'd say in terms of seasonality, first half, second half, think of that as relatively balanced in terms of seasonality for earnings progression.”

“So, we expect '25 to generally pace in line with '24 from a growth standpoint.”

“we do expect more than 50% of our full year growth to come in AEP.”

“In Medicaid, we see the gap between people's health status and state rates narrowing over the course of the year.”

“In Medicaid, we expect to serve more people in '25 with redetermination activities now concluded.”

“As a result, in '25, we expect growth of up to 800,000 people in individual, group and special needs offerings.”

“Full year revenues in '24 approached $300 billion, and for '25, we'll approach $340 billion as we grow to serve upwards of an additional 1.9 million people balanced across both the commercial and public sectors.”

“Optum Insight revenues were $19 billion in '24, and in '25, we'll approach $22 billion, with a backlog of $35 billion as sales of new products begin to take hold and the customer clearinghouse business continues to rebuild.”

“Revenues in '24 grew to over $130 billion and will be about $146 billion in '25.”

“we see continuing opportunities both in the near-term, with operating costs for '25 improving still further, and well beyond, given the rapidly expanding scope and impact of these initiatives.”

“We expect a '25 full year medical care ratio of 86.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points, 100 basis points above the '24 result.”

“we certainly still continue to believe in our long-term growth rate of 7% to 9%, acknowledging that, in certain years, you can see fluctuations based on benefit changes and other factors.”

“And that's also why we remain solidly committed to our long-term 13% to 16% growth objective, a goal that reflects both the opportunities and the capabilities that we have.”

“We're committed to fully phasing out those remaining arrangements so that 100% of rebates will go to customers by 2028 at the latest.”

“So yes, you should expect more of that and it will be a key piece of the plan going forward.”

“you should expect us to be very, very disciplined around cost management.”

“we are seeing slightly higher business disruption trend going into the end of the year, and some of that will carry over.”

“For 2025, we have priced with a forward view of our cost in full respect for trend.”

“As a result, we anticipate stepping out for 2025 more conservatively than is typical.”

“we continue to believe our 2025 planning assumptions appropriately capture these components, though we will be prudent in an initial early view.”

“Regarding Change Healthcare, for full year '24, we now estimate the business disruption costs will be about $0.75 per share, an increase of $0.10 from the former midpoint.”

“As has been the case in recent years, we expect these percentages to increase.”

“Selling season indications are tracking favorably as we head into ‘25, reflecting continued strong uptake of UnitedHealthcare's innovative offerings.”

“we remain committed to and focused on our long-term 13% to 16% earnings per share growth objective.”

“I think now, I feel like we have this now and we're in good position and the rest of the year we've got a clear path how this plays out.”

“That's why we're confident in terms of getting back to our baseline performance in 2025.”

“So, as we pace through the balance of the year, we expect to continue to build on this momentum across engagement, affordability and operating cost management and are confident in the 7.7% to 8% target for the year.”

“So, as we think about margins in the MA business and as it relates to our bid, I think we've talked about the consistent approach to how we plan margins. And we maintain -- continue to maintain that and we're operating comfortably within that margin range as we have in the past and as we're planning in 2025.”

“We continue to deliver on our growth objectives and are committed to delivering on our 13% to 16% long-term growth target.”

“For example, our growing AI portfolio made up of hundreds of practical use cases will generate billions of dollars of efficiencies over the next several years.”

“We're also well positioned for growth in 2025.”

“We're down the path in adding plan partners as well as adding geographies for 2025.”

“Yeah. And regarding Change, yes, as we mentioned in our comments and Roger mentioned, our ambition is to get back to baseline expectations performance for that business in 2025.”

“We have reinforced our utilization management protocols and believe that these impacts will dampen as we pace through the remainder of the year.”

“As it relates to kind of other elements that we've pulled out here, no, they shouldn't be material. Those cyber effects should continue to abate.”

“As it relates to just looking at towards the 3Q and such, I'd expect that to be in the neighborhood of 84%, very likely a few tens of basis points higher than that.”

“And while we might see a little bit of dislocation the rest of the year, states have really committed to accurately reflecting the change in acuity from redeterminations into current and future adjustments and really expect this to even out as we pace through the remainder of ‘24 and early ‘25.”

“So I wouldn't expect it to persist right at this level as we make those investments, and we're anxious and ambitious to make those investments.”

“I wouldn't expect it to remain at this level consistently as we look ahead over the next few quarters, though.”

“Within this, we expect a balanced pacing in the second half.”

“Still, with our ongoing strong capital capacities and with support needs abating, we expect to achieve the full year repurchase objective we shared with you last November.”

“We are on track to approach 5 million patients in value-based care by the end of this year and are progressing strongly on our earlier and deeper engagement with patients, with a purposeful focus on our newer regions to more rapidly improve health outcomes and experiences.”

“This impact is not reflected in our cyberattack direct response costs, and we have been addressing it. Nonetheless, we continue to expect our full year medical care ratio, excluding 30 basis points of cyber and South American effects to be within the range we offered in November, albeit at the upper end.”

“Our ambition continues to be to return to baseline performance in '25 and to grow strongly from there.”

“For the full year, we now estimate these direct costs at $1.30 to $1.35 per share.”

“Cyber impacts in the quarter totaled $0.92 per share, and we now estimate the full year impact will be $1.90 to $2.05 per share.”

“So we're working with them to ensure that we can actually do that. Also, we provided financial support to a number of our clients and they appreciate that... that's why we're confident in getting back to that baseline performance in 2025.”

“We approached this last year with a deliberate three-year plan, which continues firmly on track and positions us well going into '25.”

“In terms of your question here on the Q2 MCR, at this distance, I put it in a similar zip code to 1Q, including similar impact from the cyber effects that we had also”

“As we finalize our '25 benefit designs over the next several weeks, we will build competitive offerings that once again appropriately reflect the funding and cost environment.”

“The majority of the remaining $325 million of full year medical expense impact included in our outlook will land in the second quarter.”

“the objective we all share is for an even stronger Change Healthcare to be fully returned to expected performance levels next year.”

“At this distance, we currently estimate the business disruption at $350 million to $450 million or $0.30 per share to $0.40 per share for the year.”

“Optum Health is tracking well to achieve its objective of growing to serve another 750,000 patients in value-based arrangements this year in partnership with many payers.”

“we're able to reconfirm our full year adjusted earnings outlook, even as we absorb $0.30 to $0.40 per share in business disruption impacts related to Change Healthcare.”

“So as Amar said, feel very good about where we established our margin objectives for 2024.”

“We're confident in our 7.7% to 8.0% target for 2024.”

“And as we enter ’24, we're confident in the response of pricing and benefit design actions we undertook. With care patterns, continuing to be supportive of our care ratio outlook of 84% plus or minus 50 basis points.”

“During the recently completed annual enrollment period, we added about 100,000 more consumers and we remain committed to our full-year goal of 450,000 to 550,000.”

“But we still feel like we're going to have a much heavier weighting of our growth outside of the annual enrollment period from February to December.”

“As it relates to your second question, as we look out into the next year and what we see in terms of patterns, I would call it patterns commensurate, kind of, with what we saw this year in terms of just the movement, with this kind of 84% view that we view for the full-year.”

“Our Medicaid enrollment outlook for 2024 balances two key elements. First is that, state redetermination activities will be largely completed by mid-year.”

“within Medicare Advantage, we expect a majority of our full-year growth outlook to be realized outside the annual enrollment period with the growth patterns consistent with those we have experienced over the more recent years.”

“For your modeling purposes, the full-year ‘24 outlook incorporated about $6 billion of revenue for Brazil or about 1.5% of consolidated revenue.”

“Upon closing, we expect to record a charge of approximately $7 billion, the majority of which is non-cash and largely due to foreign currency translation losses accumulated over several years.”

“As Andrew noted earlier, at the end of December, we entered into an agreement to sell our Brazil operations and expect to close in the first-half of this year.”

“Throughout ‘24, you should expect to see an even greater investment in our digital capabilities, as we continue to identify opportunities to, leverage technology to reduce administrative costs, improve productivity, and further enhance the consumer experience at both Optum and UnitedHealthcare.”

“By the end of this year, Optum Health will grow to serve at least another 750,000 patients, under such arrangements, for a total of more than twice the number of people we served just two years ago.”

“we remain confident in and committed to our long-term 13% to 16% adjusted earnings per share growth rate”

“I think it is worth understanding the longer term outlook for OptumInsight margin. We still believe that's in the region of 18% to 22%, that's really driven by the mix of the businesses.”

“And as we look forward, we're very confident about continued strengthening of that business.”

“Number two, as those capabilities that have been accelerated during this year begin to affect both the quality positively and the cost of how these patients' care is delivered, you're going to see that shine through an improved economic performance of OptumHealth.”

“This most recent selling season is on track to be among our strongest, reflecting a combination of new clients and retention rates in the very high-90s.”

“We're pricing and negotiating our fully insured business for January right now, and we're comfortable with how that's materializing as well.”

“Certainly utilization, Part-D impacts, they move the other direction in a fourth quarter.”

“Having said that, we would no reason not to expect a continued healthy momentum in our move toward value-based care next year with continued high expectations for our ability to deliver that.”

“OptumRx will continue to negotiate lower prices through discounts over time, be transparent with our customers, and implement clinical evidence-based guidelines so the right people get appropriate medicines.”

“And as always, we start with an expectation that we will outpace overall market growth.”

“Within our public sector programs, we expect growth of nearly 1 million Medicare Advantage members this year.”

“So as ‘24 begins, we expect to grow to serve an additional 1 million people with commercial benefits.”

“As we've noted, our outlook assumes these activity levels persist throughout next year.”

“And as the coming season for 2025 develops, we're expecting another year of robust growth.”

“This year, we expect OptumHealth will serve more than 4 million people in fully accountable relationships, almost twice as many people as we served just two years ago.”

“Importantly, the growth we're realizing today and our expanding capacity serve to further reinforce the confidence we have in our long-term 13% to 16% growth objective.”

“We're confident that next year we will once again grow at a pace exceeding that of the broader market.”

“So as you look out to the second-half of this year, our expectation, it continues at those levels that we've been seeing with the -- I mentioned a few 100 basis points above our expectations in the senior business, that continues.”

“So within the contexting of balance, expect earnings to be a little bit higher marginally in 3Q than 4Q, because of that typical factor in there,”

“We do expect to see margins continue to strengthen, particularly as you roll through into ‘24.”

“Within this, we expect a relatively balanced pacing in the second-half.”

“Within our public sector programs, we continue to expect growth of over 900,000 Medicare Advantage members this year.”

“Our commercial business added nearly 500,000 people in the first-half and continues its growth with the ‘24 selling season indications tracking favorably.”

“Part way into the ‘24 selling season, this momentum continues with strong client additions.”

“This increased competition for the innovator drug will result in double-digit savings for our customers.”

“And we are developing our benefit offerings, assuming demand for behavioral care services will continue to rise.”

“And yes, our momentum in the first quarter clearly continued the momentum we had in the back half of last year and puts us well on track, as John said in his prepared remarks, to meet our investor conference goal – investor conference targets rather, of $850 million to $1.5 billion [ph] growth.”

“To your first point, no, you are absolutely right. We remain firmly of the view that the 13% to 16% long-term growth rate of adjusted earnings per share is very much the zone we are in.”

“Within Medicare Advantage, we shared with you in November our intention to add 800,000 to 900,000 new members in this year, and we now expect to exceed the upper end of that rate.”

“For example, in commercial, we set out to serve up to 1 million more people this year and are pacing well to that objective given our first quarter performance.”

“This year, we will manage nearly 12 million care transitions, about twice as many as just 3 years ago.”

“I said earlier that we are expecting continued robust growth on commercial insurance into ‘24.”

“So, it is a meaningful contributor to our growth, and we expect it to be so for the remainder of the year and into the future.”

“We shared at the investor conference that Surest was available in 12 states on an insured basis with a year-end target for this year of upwards of 35 states.”

“We intend to grow again in 2024, as Andrew had said. We expect the marketplace to continue to grow in 2024. And we continue to lead with the strong momentum that we have demonstrated for many years now.”

“We would continue to expect to see value-based care continue to be a very important part of the future growth of the marketplace and of course, for us.”

“I put that in the zone of $100 million or so of impact in the quarter and expect that to be a little bit higher actually in the second quarter also.”

“Don’t anticipate any pressure on trend because of it and really see this as a win and satisfier for both our customers and our provider groups alike.”

“We expect the first half, second half earnings progression to be broadly consistent with our longer-term historical patterns with the second half comprising just slightly more than half of the full year.”

“As we have discussed before, in the first half, we expect to continue to increase our integration and investment activities, which were a component in the first quarter results, and we expect they will accelerate into the second quarter.”

“This year, we expect to make more than 2.5 million visits to patients’ homes and we continue to expand the scope of the clinical services offered in that setting.”

“And we expect to be serving more people in our benefit programs when this process is completed.”

“Our focus on consumers is helping to drive growth within health benefits, including strong growth in our commercial offerings, and our early indications are for continued robust commercial growth in 2024.”

“For example, this year, we expect to serve more than 4 million patients in fully accountable value-based care arrangements through Optum, about double where we were at the end of 2021.”

“I wouldn't -- just kind of like last year, probably wouldn't use that as my run rate stepping out into next year though. So we're still comfortable with how we established and guided for 2023 from that perspective also.”

“So at this point, from where we look, we've got visibility at around 75% of our revenue for the year. And states, as they set that revenue, have taken all of those factors into account when setting their rates, and that revenue is in line with our expectations and consistent with the outlook that we shared in November.”

“Our new and innovative products continue to gain momentum with employers and their employees, which will lead to increasing growth in this market over the next several years.”

“That's going to give us a whole new cycle of product innovation. We expect that to be a big source of lift as we go forward, backed up by an increasing momentum of being able to sign up these very large health system partnerships.”

“I wouldn't be at all surprised if we didn't exceed '22 numbers by the time we get to the end of '23.”

“Within our commercial offerings, we expect to serve about 1 million additional people in 2023.”

“We expect to serve up to 900,000 more people in '23 across our individual, group and dual special needs offerings, our 8th consecutive year of above-market growth.”

“We expect to make a significant portion of these important investments in the first half of the year.”

“The key here is that our comprehensive technology solutions are resonating in the market, and we expect to see increasing momentum across all of OptumInsight as we invest in and finalize our integration activities.”

“In 2023, we will increase the types of vaccinations offered, expand testing services and deploy even more real-time resources to address social determinants of health.”

“Thus far in 2023, it is one in nine, and we expect it will continue to rise.”

“2023 will see the emergence of an enhanced OptumInsight, bringing to life the opportunities that the legacy organizations from Optum and change creates, an acceleration of how technology can be used to healthcare providers and ultimately patients within the overall health system.”

“Moreover, 1/4 of our self-funded employers have now chosen to add this offering for their employees, and we expect that number to rise.”

“By the end of 2023, we expect to have more than 750 community pharmacies, nearly 200 more than we had at the beginning of 2020.”

“As we look at that national accounts performance, we are very pleased with what we have seen in terms of a very strong renewal year and also a strong sales year, which leaves us I am confident in a growth year for national accounts for 2023.”

“And once again, I like my chances to outperform the industry in '23 and have share gaining growth.”

“And we see our innovative and consistently highly valued Medicare Advantage plans as well positioned to grow strongly again next year.”

“In fact, while we are expanding into four new states in 2023, our footprint is expanding meaningfully. I think we are going from around 40% of the addressable market here, leaving 2022 to nearly two-thirds by the end of next year and again – or by the start of next year, I should suggest.”

“And as we roll through the next two quarters or three quarters, we really anticipate a kind of new OptumInsight emerging from this integration.”

“So, really, as you think about your modeling purposes, roughly in the zone of $800 million of revenue coming in to the OptumInsight segment without any impact on operating earnings.”

“So, we wouldn't expect a change to be additive to OptumInsight's operating earnings in the fourth quarter.”

“Yes. On accretion for change, so yes, it will be accretive next year.”

“In terms of – our backlog, it represents about a quarter of our backlog and not surprisingly less in terms of current revenue contribution. And as it relates to coverage into next year, we have well north of half coverage on revenue as we look into next year.”

“So, we are on pace to end this year '22 with full year growth of 900,000 lives.”

“So first, maybe just some of the numbers, so we're assuming the PHE will end in January and redeterminations will resume in Q1.”

“At this distance, we view a majority of the 2023 analyst estimates as reasonably reflecting performance levels we would expect to offer in November with the current consensus at the top end of our likely initial earnings outlook range.”

“The recently released 2024 plan year star ratings were consistent with our long-term planning expectations, with 81% of our members in 4-star or better plans, a level we expect will rise as planned refinements are finalized.”