Severity-weighted accuracy, with the ruler visible.
Every grade below carries a citable source. Official labels use a 5 percent band around the committed level; accuracy decays with how far outcomes landed from commitments, weighted by materiality. Bias is the median signed deviation: positive means outcomes land favorable to guidance.
Executive accuracy · official band pinned at 5 percent
| Executive | Ticker | Claims | Accuracy (official) | Meet / Beat / Miss | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Patterson | CSCO | 21 | 99.6 | 20/0/1 | +1.2 |
| Kevan Parekh | AAPL | 28 | 97.9 | 25/2/1 | +0.4 |
| Gil Shwed | CHKP | 35 | 97.8 | 31/3/1 | +1.4 |
| Lucas Montarce | LLY | 18 | 95.9 | 12/6/0 | +2.5 |
| Luca Maestri | AAPL | 86 | 95.2 | 67/16/3 | 0.0 |
| Kirsten Spears | AVGO | 73 | 94.6 | 59/12/2 | +1.3 |
| Scott Herren | CSCO | 98 | 94.3 | 75/14/9 | +1.7 |
| Marc Benioff | CRM | 41 | 93.5 | 28/12/1 | +0.4 |
| Philip Boudreau | ABT | 22 | 93.4 | 14/5/3 | +0.8 |
| Devinder Kumar | AMD | 22 | 92.7 | 14/3/5 | 0.0 |
| Dan Durn | ADBE | 129 | 92.6 | 96/24/9 | +1.2 |
| Scott Reents | ABBV | 49 | 92.4 | 32/7/10 | +1.4 |
| Katie Fogertey | SHAK | 68 | 92.2 | 45/17/6 | +2.7 |
| Gina Mastantuono | NOW | 116 | 91.2 | 81/30/5 | +1.1 |
| Hans Vestberg | VZ | 43 | 90.8 | 28/12/3 | 0.0 |
| Mike Cavanagh | CMCSA | 41 | 90.4 | 29/9/3 | +3.6 |
| Peter Osvaldik | TMUS | 108 | 90.3 | 62/39/7 | +1.1 |
| Frank D’amelio | PFE | 17 | 90.0 | 10/5/2 | +2.3 |
| Christiane Ohlgart | FTNT | 25 | 89.2 | 12/13/0 | +5.1 |
| Jen DiRico | CVLT | 20 | 88.8 | 11/7/2 | +1.0 |
| Jean Hu | AMD | 72 | 88.7 | 51/12/9 | +1.8 |
| Joaquin Duato | JNJ | 30 | 88.4 | 18/8/4 | -5.0 |
| Andrew Young | COF | 30 | 88.0 | 22/4/4 | 0.0 |
| Hock Tan | AVGO | 171 | 87.9 | 103/45/23 | +1.2 |
| Calvin Butler | EXC | 25 | 87.9 | 17/4/4 | 0.0 |
| Remo Canessa | ZS | 78 | 87.8 | 40/34/4 | +3.5 |
| Keith Jensen | FTNT | 142 | 87.6 | 82/42/18 | +1.3 |
| Dipak Golechha | PANW | 108 | 87.3 | 57/46/5 | +2.1 |
| Rob Michael | ABBV | 63 | 87.1 | 39/11/13 | +0.6 |
| Billy Gifford | MO | 41 | 87.1 | 23/12/6 | +2.4 |
| Susan Li | META | 74 | 87.1 | 46/17/11 | 0.0 |
| Marc Casper | TMO | 64 | 86.8 | 40/15/9 | +1.0 |
| Michael Santomassimo | WFC | 109 | 86.6 | 80/13/16 | -0.6 |
| Rafael Lizardi | TXN | 53 | 86.6 | 35/13/5 | +6.5 |
| Amy Weaver | CRM | 136 | 86.3 | 76/47/13 | +1.0 |
| Matt White | LIN | 56 | 86.3 | 35/11/10 | +1.7 |
| Roei Golan | CHKP | 26 | 86.3 | 19/4/3 | +0.9 |
| Adam Orvos | ROST | 55 | 86.2 | 31/23/1 | +3.7 |
| Brian Carolan | SAIL | 14 | 86.0 | 9/5/0 | +2.2 |
| Jamie Miller | PYPL | 48 | 86.0 | 22/24/2 | +4.0 |
| KC McClure | ACN | 116 | 85.9 | 77/25/14 | +0.3 |
| Gabrielle Rabinovitch | PYPL | 38 | 85.7 | 21/12/5 | +1.0 |
| Peter Griffith | AMGN | 105 | 85.6 | 57/31/17 | +0.8 |
| Vasant Prabhu | V | 68 | 85.6 | 40/21/7 | +3.5 |
| Jim Benson | DT | 34 | 85.5 | 17/12/5 | +1.8 |
| Sandeep Aujla | INTU | 51 | 85.4 | 25/22/4 | +2.0 |
| Karen Lynch | CVS | 20 | 85.0 | 15/0/5 | 0.0 |
| Amy Hood | MSFT | 482 | 84.8 | 242/177/63 | +1.5 |
| Richard McPhail | HD | 69 | 84.3 | 45/12/12 | +1.4 |
| Chris Calio | RTX | 31 | 84.3 | 17/8/6 | 0.0 |
| David Elkins | BMY | 74 | 84.3 | 47/16/11 | 0.0 |
| Colette Kress | NVDA | 123 | 84.3 | 84/19/20 | +1.0 |
| Safra Catz | ORCL | 148 | 84.3 | 84/37/27 | +0.8 |
| Bill Bullock | COP | 62 | 84.1 | 40/11/11 | +0.4 |
| Stephen Squeri | AXP | 43 | 83.9 | 22/14/7 | 0.0 |
| Brandon Sink | LOW | 80 | 83.9 | 51/15/14 | 0.0 |
| Kevin Burns | DT | 23 | 83.7 | 11/8/4 | +3.0 |
| Lisa Su | AMD | 99 | 83.7 | 58/28/13 | +14.3 |
| Emmanuel Babeau | PM | 207 | 83.6 | 110/64/33 | +1.3 |
| Akash Palkhiwala | QCOM | 145 | 83.5 | 80/41/24 | +2.1 |
| Alastair Borthwick | BAC | 98 | 83.3 | 65/18/15 | 0.0 |
| Mike Stepniak | HON | 61 | 82.9 | 23/28/10 | +2.0 |
| Joo Mi Kim | QLYS | 118 | 82.6 | 58/48/12 | +2.2 |
| Michael Sievert | TMUS | 39 | 82.6 | 19/15/5 | +5.0 |
| Dermot McDonogh | BK | 49 | 82.4 | 21/26/2 | +5.0 |
| Jeffrey Campbell | AXP | 56 | 82.1 | 32/13/11 | +2.5 |
| Caroline Litchfield | MRK | 96 | 82.1 | 52/17/27 | -0.4 |
| Martin Connor | TOL | 54 | 82.0 | 28/13/13 | -1.2 |
| John Murphy | KO | 81 | 81.9 | 37/27/17 | +1.0 |
| John Stankey | T | 66 | 81.9 | 31/21/14 | +3.1 |
| Carol Tome | UPS | 71 | 81.8 | 44/13/14 | 0.0 |
| Evan Scott | LMT | 17 | 81.8 | 7/7/3 | +5.3 |
| George Davis | INTC | 13 | 81.5 | 7/3/3 | +2.7 |
| Dave Glazer | PLTR | 107 | 81.5 | 52/50/5 | +6.2 |
| John Stern | USB | 74 | 81.5 | 36/27/11 | +1.3 |
| Brian Dykes | UPS | 47 | 81.5 | 24/13/10 | -1.1 |
| Thierry Pieton | MDT | 17 | 81.5 | 5/10/2 | +5.4 |
| Raj Subramaniam | FDX | 39 | 81.4 | 23/11/5 | 0.0 |
| Jeremy Barnum | JPM | 77 | 81.3 | 40/21/16 | +1.7 |
| Pascal Desroches | T | 105 | 80.9 | 47/33/25 | -2.0 |
| Mark Mason | C | 97 | 80.9 | 55/21/21 | 0.0 |
| Jamie Samath | ISRG | 41 | 80.7 | 21/13/7 | +16.7 |
| Brian Olsavsky | AMZN | 57 | 80.7 | 35/9/13 | +0.1 |
| Jim Caci | AVPT | 96 | 80.5 | 58/32/6 | +2.9 |
| Andrew Dickinson | GILD | 106 | 80.5 | 52/29/25 | +1.5 |
| Sachin Mehra | MA | 101 | 80.3 | 59/26/16 | 0.0 |
| Alex Karp | PLTR | 15 | 80.3 | 8/3/4 | +0.5 |
| Gary Corona | MDT | 16 | 80.3 | 6/5/5 | -9.1 |
| Frank Dellaquila | EMR | 53 | 80.3 | 21/23/9 | +3.9 |
| Brian King | ISRG | 51 | 80.2 | 21/24/6 | +8.1 |
| Dave Wehner | META | 37 | 80.1 | 21/9/7 | +3.3 |
| Kirk Crews | NEE | 36 | 79.9 | 20/9/7 | +1.3 |
| Lynn Good | DUK | 86 | 79.8 | 55/9/22 | 0.0 |
| Shawn Guertin | CVS | 65 | 79.5 | 32/18/15 | +0.4 |
| Ewout Steenbergen | BKNG | 90 | 79.5 | 38/41/11 | +4.0 |
| Tim Adams | RPD | 109 | 79.4 | 62/33/14 | +1.3 |
| Jacek Olczak | PM | 42 | 79.3 | 21/9/12 | +1.4 |
| Karen Parkhill | MDT | 87 | 79.3 | 39/23/25 | -0.8 |
| Anat Ashkenazi | LLY | 43 | 79.2 | 19/13/11 | +3.5 |
| Christophe Le Caillec | AXP | 47 | 79.1 | 28/7/12 | 0.0 |
| Jeanne Jones | EXC | 59 | 79.1 | 31/15/13 | +1.0 |
| Steve Young | DUK | 26 | 78.9 | 12/8/6 | 0.0 |
| Angie Park | ACN | 62 | 78.7 | 31/20/11 | +1.1 |
| Denis Coleman | GS | 39 | 78.6 | 24/10/5 | 0.0 |
| Dan Schulman | PYPL | 48 | 78.6 | 22/12/14 | +1.0 |
| Monish Patolawala | MMM | 129 | 78.5 | 72/29/28 | +1.0 |
| Sabra Purtill | AIG | 14 | 78.5 | 7/6/1 | +2.6 |
| John Rainey | WMT | 63 | 78.4 | 23/31/9 | +3.6 |
| Ian Borden | MCD | 53 | 78.2 | 32/6/15 | +3.4 |
| Michael Verdeschi | SCHW | 29 | 78.1 | 13/11/5 | +2.0 |
| Gary Merrill | CVLT | 36 | 78.0 | 20/9/7 | +3.0 |
| John McCallion | MET | 61 | 77.9 | 35/11/15 | -2.4 |
| Brian Moynihan | BAC | 27 | 77.7 | 16/3/8 | 0.0 |
| Chris Suh | V | 93 | 77.7 | 41/33/19 | +3.3 |
| David Denton | PFE | 49 | 77.5 | 20/19/10 | +4.5 |
| Gary Shedlin | BLK | 15 | 77.1 | 7/5/3 | +2.8 |
| John Dietrich | FDX | 57 | 76.9 | 23/22/12 | 0.0 |
| Albert Bourla | PFE | 33 | 76.8 | 20/1/12 | -8.0 |
| Lal Karsanbhai | EMR | 81 | 76.8 | 42/21/18 | +1.0 |
| Jessica Fischer | CHTR | 69 | 76.8 | 34/16/19 | +2.3 |
| Tom Bartlett | AMT | 17 | 76.8 | 6/9/2 | +16.7 |
| Douglas Yearley | TOL | 26 | 76.8 | 14/5/7 | +3.0 |
| Dan Tucker | SO | 47 | 76.6 | 19/18/10 | +6.7 |
| Martin Small | BLK | 28 | 76.6 | 12/9/7 | +6.7 |
| Jane Fraser | C | 38 | 76.5 | 18/8/12 | -1.0 |
| Joseph Wolk | JNJ | 123 | 76.3 | 50/41/32 | +0.5 |
| Rick Gonzalez | ABBV | 28 | 76.3 | 11/8/9 | +0.2 |
| Michael Wirth | CVX | 60 | 76.1 | 30/13/17 | 0.0 |
| Stephen Williamson | TMO | 142 | 75.8 | 69/45/28 | 0.0 |
| Andrew Bonfield | CAT | 160 | 75.7 | 81/39/40 | +2.0 |
| Greg Lewis | HON | 241 | 75.6 | 128/45/68 | +0.9 |
| Michael Baughman | EMR | 94 | 75.6 | 39/30/25 | 0.0 |
| Christine McCarthy | DIS | 52 | 75.5 | 28/9/15 | +5.3 |
| Andy Cecere | USB | 39 | 75.4 | 20/8/11 | 0.0 |
| Sharon Yeshaya | MS | 35 | 75.3 | 19/9/7 | +5.9 |
| James J. Kavanaugh | IBM | 148 | 75.3 | 57/49/42 | -0.7 |
| Mike Lenz | FDX | 47 | 75.1 | 23/13/11 | +2.8 |
| Rod Smith | AMT | 155 | 75.1 | 62/61/32 | +0.2 |
| Rahul Ghai | GE | 92 | 74.9 | 24/54/14 | +6.8 |
| Peter Zaffino | AIG | 73 | 74.9 | 38/14/21 | -1.5 |
| Jay Malave | LMT | 80 | 74.8 | 42/14/24 | +0.9 |
| Robert Ford | ABT | 80 | 74.1 | 35/25/20 | +3.2 |
| Peter Crawford | SCHW | 37 | 73.8 | 18/8/11 | 0.0 |
| Neil Mitchill | RTX | 92 | 73.7 | 30/40/22 | +1.4 |
| David Goulden | BKNG | 118 | 73.7 | 42/51/25 | +3.0 |
| David Simon | SPG | 45 | 73.6 | 22/10/13 | +1.3 |
| Josh Jepsen | DE | 53 | 73.3 | 24/13/16 | 0.0 |
| Terry Dolan | USB | 75 | 73.3 | 35/13/27 | -3.3 |
| Mike Roman | MMM | 24 | 73.2 | 12/4/8 | +2.2 |
| Michael Fiddelke | TGT | 55 | 72.7 | 23/17/15 | +4.0 |
| Kevin Ozan | MCD | 18 | 72.6 | 8/3/7 | -4.4 |
| Ryan Lance | COP | 26 | 72.5 | 12/10/4 | +1.1 |
| Matt McGrew | DHR | 26 | 72.3 | 9/11/6 | -3.2 |
| Rainer Blair | DHR | 140 | 72.0 | 49/52/39 | 0.0 |
| Larry Culp | GE | 87 | 72.0 | 28/37/22 | +5.3 |
| Phebe Novakovic | GD | 99 | 71.9 | 46/14/39 | 0.0 |
| Michelle Clatterbuck | INTU | 34 | 71.8 | 10/18/6 | +10.0 |
| Emily Portney | BK | 47 | 71.8 | 13/22/12 | +4.0 |
| Richard Galanti | COST | 38 | 71.6 | 18/7/13 | -1.9 |
| Pierre Breber | CVX | 44 | 71.6 | 22/11/11 | 0.0 |
| Brent Norwood | DE | 42 | 71.5 | 18/9/15 | -1.0 |
| Brian O. Newman | UPS | 90 | 71.5 | 38/18/34 | -2.1 |
| Carolina Dybeck Happe | GE | 38 | 71.3 | 10/21/7 | +13.0 |
| Randy Garutti | SHAK | 34 | 71.3 | 12/12/10 | +2.5 |
| William Brown | MMM | 38 | 71.2 | 9/19/10 | +3.7 |
| Andre Schulten | PG | 132 | 70.9 | 43/46/43 | +0.7 |
| Guy Melamed | VRNS | 156 | 70.8 | 72/62/22 | +2.4 |
| Jason Aiken | GD | 46 | 70.3 | 25/6/15 | +4.0 |
| James Taiclet | LMT | 49 | 70.0 | 19/12/18 | -1.1 |
| Darren Woods | XOM | 49 | 69.6 | 19/16/14 | +7.8 |
| Rachel Bach | DE | 20 | 69.0 | 2/12/6 | +6.5 |
| Luca Zaramella | MDLZ | 93 | 68.5 | 30/30/33 | 0.0 |
| Brian Savoy | DUK | 40 | 68.3 | 19/9/12 | +9.1 |
| Mandy Fields | ELF | 59 | 68.1 | 12/40/7 | +15.6 |
| Brian Robbins | GTLB | 22 | 67.6 | 5/16/1 | +8.5 |
| Brett Biggs | WMT | 20 | 67.1 | 8/7/5 | +2.9 |
| Robert Funck | ABT | 25 | 66.9 | 9/11/5 | +15.4 |
| Greg Hayes | RTX | 30 | 66.9 | 15/5/10 | -3.4 |
| David Zinsner | INTC | 129 | 66.3 | 49/34/46 | +0.7 |
| Joshua Rohleder | DE | 20 | 65.6 | 3/5/12 | -6.3 |
| Brian West | BA | 130 | 64.9 | 52/20/58 | +4.0 |
| Corey Thomas | RPD | 25 | 64.7 | 10/2/13 | -12.3 |
| Paul Jacobson | GM | 95 | 64.7 | 35/26/34 | +5.5 |
| Pat Gelsinger | INTC | 110 | 64.4 | 45/17/48 | -3.3 |
| James Gorman | MS | 16 | 64.4 | 7/3/6 | 0.0 |
| Matt Friend | NKE | 109 | 64.4 | 36/26/47 | +2.0 |
| Sanjiv Lamba | LIN | 61 | 64.4 | 25/12/24 | 0.0 |
| John Rex | UNH | 39 | 62.9 | 15/6/18 | +0.4 |
| Anurag Maheshwari | MMM | 35 | 62.8 | 6/23/6 | +33.3 |
| Jennifer Hamann | UNP | 59 | 60.1 | 23/7/29 | -3.5 |
| Ram Krishnan | EMR | 43 | 60.1 | 17/6/20 | -3.1 |
| John Lawler | F | 65 | 60.1 | 16/20/29 | -4.2 |
| Andrew Witty | UNH | 21 | 59.8 | 7/6/8 | +0.9 |
| Rachel Ruggeri | SBUX | 82 | 58.1 | 30/9/43 | 0.0 |
| John Rainey | PYPL | 17 | 57.2 | 7/0/10 | 0.0 |
| Tom Cowhey | CVS | 22 | 56.9 | 6/4/12 | -1.0 |
| Mary Barra | GM | 57 | 55.1 | 16/5/36 | 0.0 |
| Jim Farley | F | 27 | 54.3 | 4/9/14 | -9.0 |
| Tim Noel | UNH | 13 | 50.8 | 3/3/7 | 0.0 |
| Sherry House | F | 23 | 50.5 | 5/10/8 | +4.6 |
Published scores stay pinned at the official 5 percent band; the slider recomputes labels from the stored deviation of every claim so you can see how sensitive rankings are to the ruler. Executives with fewer than 12 graded claims, or fewer than 6 numeric ones, are not listed; directional claims carry one tenth weight; bias requires 6 numeric claims.
rho 0.439
95 percent confidence interval [0.333, 0.533] · 291 executives · publication gate 0.30 · computed live from the current record
What this means. We split every executive’s graded claims in half by time and ask whether accuracy on the earlier half predicts accuracy on the later half. A rho of 1.0 would mean rankings persist perfectly; a rho of 0 would mean the leaderboard measures luck. The interval sitting clearly above zero means executive accuracy is a persistent trait: the same people keep being right, and the same people keep being wrong. The pre-registered gate for methodology 4.0 measured rho 0.371 [0.243, 0.496] against a 0.30 threshold; the 2026-08-01 check on the retired verification layer, same scoring formula, measured 0.410 [0.280, 0.525]. Two verification approaches, two overlapping intervals, one conclusion, which is checkable robustness rather than a coincidence.